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Post by bradleysbest on Sept 9, 2015 12:18:59 GMT -5
Either you believe in the science, SNY & Al Mann or you don't! No bashing but if you don't believe you should sell.... just saying
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Post by notamnkdmillionaire on Sept 9, 2015 12:22:25 GMT -5
Either you believe in the science, SNY & Al Mann or you don't! No bashing but if you don't believe you should sell.... just saying One can believe in the science all one wants even if it is superior. It doesn't guarantee success if the market place doesn't accept it. We still are waiting to see if SNY can over come the hurdles that Afrezza has to make it the de facto insulin of choice for Diabetics.
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Post by bradleysbest on Sept 9, 2015 12:25:49 GMT -5
True but only you can make that conclusion if the market place will accept it etc....... I believe!
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Post by bradleysbest on Sept 9, 2015 12:29:30 GMT -5
As tough as it is (some investors 15 + years) we need to be patient! I am confident we will be rewarded once these initial hurdles (dr education, insurance, DTC) are overcome.
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Post by newmnkdinvestor on Sept 9, 2015 12:30:31 GMT -5
The point I am trying to make is a Harvard education whether its for business or medicine is still a ridiculous acoomplishment. I think the more important point to make here is that his harvard education didn't mean a rat's patootee when he made his previous bad predictions. Besides, Wall Street, and I'm not sure if Piper Jaffrey even qualifies to be considered Wall Street, is chock full of analysts with good college credentials who make bad calls after bad calls. The only true value of a harvard or yale etc education when it comes to making predictions is the credibility it buys the analysts' employer. Nothing more nothing less. I am in a 100% agreement. I am not defending the guy in the least. I am pissed. Harvard is Harvard though and it has value ten fold over any other education, Success as an analyst is a a different ball of wax.
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Post by BlueCat on Sept 9, 2015 12:32:59 GMT -5
Edge?
IMHO - it needs to cross three major barriers to succeed, and its got 2 of 3 done:
1. Product. Yep - Check. Users report real results, its innovative, addresses a massive (NOT niche - Duh!) market and it has a platform to create the line of products.
2. Finance. Yep- Check. Old Mann has the checkbook - so whether mismanagement, nefarious intents by outside interests, economic downturns - they do have the ability to weather the storms. And have amply demonstrated thus.
3. Execution. WIP. There have been some hiccups with the CRLs, communications, etc. But they've passed all major gates (CRLs, Adcomm, FDA, partnership, launch, etc) and pretty well delivered on what's been said. And they've communicated that we're at the point of insurance formulary decisions, which would seem to be critical. I think the question is largely on SNY - and generally, SNY succeeds in Diabetes market. So augury and probability says is bullish.
As an old friend once said to me, it always comes around - justice, truth, etc. The problem is that it doesn't always happen in the timeframe you want, or need.
This is a LONG hold. The art is in timing the entry, managing capital and investments in the meantime, hedging as needed or possible, and the patience or resources to just wait.
(And yes, the number of the counting SHALL be 3 …. )
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Post by iabimmd26 on Sept 9, 2015 12:34:26 GMT -5
Sales matter. We have had a disappointing start. Do you think for one second MNKD would have had the issues they have had with the convertible notes if sales were strong? Of course not. The stock is in trouble, no question about it. The converts need to get done this month and prescription trends need to improve.
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Post by patryn on Sept 9, 2015 12:55:04 GMT -5
Unmet expectations are the bane of every relationship. If you expect that 7 months after launch, you are going to have blockbuster sales, then anything short of that is going to be a disappointment. As long as MNKD remains in business and does not need to raise more capital, the short term stock price fluctuations have almost no meaning. My edge is that I expect my MNKD investment to be a buy and hold forever investment. It doesn't matter what happens in the next few months or next few years as long as Afrezza, and ultimately Technosphere, turn out to be profitable for the company. Would it be nice if they were blockbusters - of course - but even if they are just moderately successful and pay the bills, the market cap of the company as it sits today is well worth the risk/reward profile.
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Post by kc on Sept 9, 2015 13:47:11 GMT -5
And you wonder why share lending rates went up over the weekend... You want to bet they go up again this week! also EOD Thursday is short reporting through 8/31/2015
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Post by Chris-C on Sept 9, 2015 21:19:46 GMT -5
From my vantage point, nothing of substance changed at all today. An overpaid analyst from an overrated investment firm gave an opinion. Nothing more.
For all we know, he formed an opinion (long ago) and interviewed a convenience sample of 5 to appear to justify it today. He's been very wrong in the past, and beyond his convenience sample, how he arrived at his "new" target price of $1.50 sounds very reminiscent of the prediction by Jason Karp, who clearly had a conflict of interest in making it.
Unfortunately, too many people are sufficiently naive that they buy his one-sided, poorly supported rationale based on a survey that means nothing to trained scientists. It does chafe that this questionable behavior is the norm on Wall Street; but no amount of attention getting hysteria will change anything in a culture ruled by greed. If the 2008 meltdown and generous payout to investment banks didn't get people's attention, nothing will.
And for those who swoon over his "credentials", a Harvard MBA is more a status pedigree than evidence of superior analytical skills. As pointed out by others, his resume suggests that he always had his mind set on being in business rather than practicing medicine, and if he has any clinical expertise at all, it is in Rheumatology, not endocrinology. I'd be surprised if he is even licensed to practice medicine in New York.
I think we will see a continuation of the upturn in scripts this week. At this juncture, that is what matters to analysts and most investors. To me, progress on the studies to improve the label and continued work to improve insurance coverage along with DTC ads and gaining marketing approvals outside the USA are the most important issues. All of these things are taking time and the share price will be vulnerable during the interim. Call it another buying opportunity.
Chris C
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Post by jonesq on Sept 9, 2015 22:05:07 GMT -5
From my vantage point, nothing of substance changed at all today. An overpaid analyst from an overrated investment firm gave an opinion. Nothing more. For all we know, he formed an opinion (long ago) and interviewed a convenience sample of 5 to appear to justify it today. He's been very wrong in the past, and beyond his convenience sample, how he arrived at his "new" target price of $1.50 sounds very reminiscent of the prediction by Jason Karp, who clearly had a conflict of interest in making it. Unfortunately, too many people are sufficiently naive that they buy his one-sided, poorly supported rationale based on a survey that means nothing to trained scientists. It does chafe that this questionable behavior is the norm on Wall Street; but no amount of attention getting hysteria will change anything in a culture ruled by greed. If the 2008 meltdown and generous payout to investment banks didn't get people's attention, nothing will. And for those who swoon over his "credentials", a Harvard MBA is more a status pedigree than evidence of superior analytical skills. As pointed out by others, his resume suggests that he always had his mind set on being in business rather than practicing medicine, and if he has any clinical expertise at all, it is in Rheumatology, not endocrinology. I'd be surprised if he is even licensed to practice medicine in New York. I think we will see a continuation of the upturn in scripts this week. At this juncture, that is what matters to analysts and most investors. To me, progress on the studies to improve the label and continued work to improve insurance coverage along with DTC ads and gaining marketing approvals outside the USA are the most important issues. All of these things are taking time and the share price will be vulnerable during the interim. Call it another buying opportunity. Chris C Chris, I couldn't agree more. I've been doing some online snooping to see if I can find some tie between Jason Karp and Joshua Schimmer, but I couldn't find any. I just bought more shares on Tuesday so obviously today wasn't a good day for me. but your post rings true and I will just shrug today off. As I set forth in the other thread, I am expecting the scripts to uptick in the weeks to come and then the stock price will have to pop. But if the scripts decrease, then I guess we can expect more downgrades.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Sept 10, 2015 7:01:15 GMT -5
From my vantage point, nothing of substance changed at all today. An overpaid analyst from an overrated investment firm gave an opinion. Nothing more. For all we know, he formed an opinion (long ago) and interviewed a convenience sample of 5 to appear to justify it today. He's been very wrong in the past, and beyond his convenience sample, how he arrived at his "new" target price of $1.50 sounds very reminiscent of the prediction by Jason Karp, who clearly had a conflict of interest in making it. Unfortunately, too many people are sufficiently naive that they buy his one-sided, poorly supported rationale based on a survey that means nothing to trained scientists. It does chafe that this questionable behavior is the norm on Wall Street; but no amount of attention getting hysteria will change anything in a culture ruled by greed. If the 2008 meltdown and generous payout to investment banks didn't get people's attention, nothing will. And for those who swoon over his "credentials", a Harvard MBA is more a status pedigree than evidence of superior analytical skills. As pointed out by others, his resume suggests that he always had his mind set on being in business rather than practicing medicine, and if he has any clinical expertise at all, it is in Rheumatology, not endocrinology. I'd be surprised if he is even licensed to practice medicine in New York. I think we will see a continuation of the upturn in scripts this week. At this juncture, that is what matters to analysts and most investors. To me, progress on the studies to improve the label and continued work to improve insurance coverage along with DTC ads and gaining marketing approvals outside the USA are the most important issues. All of these things are taking time and the share price will be vulnerable during the interim. Call it another buying opportunity. Chris C Chris, I couldn't agree more. I've been doing some online snooping to see if I can find some tie between Jason Karp and Joshua Schimmer, but I couldn't find any. I just bought more shares on Tuesday so obviously today wasn't a good day for me. but your post rings true and I will just shrug today off. As I set forth in the other thread, I am expecting the scripts to uptick in the weeks to come and then the stock price will have to pop. But if the scripts decrease, then I guess we can expect more downgrades. I often wonder who are the investors in various hedge funds and I have never found a database to provide that information. In addition, I have never read any of the good Dr's research reports but certainly would like to do so. There have been other analyst reports I have read regarding MNKD that have been pages and pages of in depth analytics and financial analysis and while I may not agree with everything, at least I understand where they are coming from.
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Post by mssciguy on Sept 10, 2015 7:16:26 GMT -5
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Post by liane on Sept 10, 2015 7:18:44 GMT -5
I can always hope it's more than lip service.
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Post by kc on Sept 10, 2015 9:30:02 GMT -5
Lip service. Nothing will change accept the weather.
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