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Post by bearcatbob on Nov 3, 2015 20:37:52 GMT -5
I am a RBC client and have access to al their research and I did not receive (I get alerts) or find any such information? Check out Adnan Butt. Log in to your account. Click on "research" and search on MNKD or Adnan Butt. Bob When boosters go so negative IMO a management response is appropriate.
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Post by jpg on Nov 3, 2015 20:42:27 GMT -5
Yes I found it and you are right. It basically comes down to: 1. insurance: little to no coverage 2. Patient awareness: they haven't heard about it 3. Is Sanofi committed?
And yes one big downgrade...
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Post by bearcatbob on Nov 3, 2015 20:46:16 GMT -5
Yes I found it and you are right. It basically comes down to: 1. insurance: little to no coverage 2. Patient awareness: they haven't heard about it 3. Is Sanofi committed? And yes one big downgrade... I sent the analyst a nasty note. How such a change can happen without surprising news form the company is beyond me.
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Post by jpg on Nov 3, 2015 20:50:15 GMT -5
Yes I found it and you are right. It basically comes down to: 1. insurance: little to no coverage 2. Patient awareness: they haven't heard about it 3. Is Sanofi committed? And yes one big downgrade... I just finished reading the report and it basically seem to imply (my liberal interpretation!) that Sanofi isn't committed or else they wouldn't be doing such a terrible job (coverage, awareness, leaving Mannkind financially exposed). And it's kind of hard to argue with that... I would post it but there is no public link. This is as much as I can get. Sorry for the poor formatting: MannKind Corporation Physician survey indicates sluggish Afrezza growth; downgrading to UP Our view: We are reducing our Afrezza sales ramp and peak sales estimates based on our proprietary physician survey. Hurdles include modest patient interest/ awareness, cost and access issues, and slow growth. SNY, if committed, could still deliver if it addresses overhangs identified. However, with uncertainty around when the collaboration achieves profitability and MNKD’s balance sheet, we reduce our PT to $1 and downgrade to UP. Key points: • Key take-aways. Our changed outlook is based on our proprietary physician survey which explains disappointing IMS prescription data and SNY reported sales. Physicians are not too concerned about Afrezza safety/efficacy and the majority are willing to prescribe Afrezza upon patient request. However, patient interest (or awareness) remains low and Afrezza prescriptions appear to get lost due to payer hurdles. In addition, physicians perceive Afrezza and patient-out-of-pocket costs to be higher than other insulin products. Our survey indicates modest future market share growth (+13-22% annually), although we believe the total addressable market opportunity for Afrezza remains large. See details on following pages. • IMS prescription data shows that while Afrezza weekly prescriptions continue to increase, growth is modest and market share remains negligible at 0.15%. Note current usage reported by our survey respondents is higher; however, our sample size is small (N=51) and it correlates neither with IMS data nor reported sales. • SNY reported sales were ~EUR1M (~$1M) in 1Q:15 (partial quarter), EUR2M (~$2.2M) in 2Q and EUR2M (~$2.2M) in 3Q. Lack of sequential growth was followed by comments from SNY that attributed part of a reduction in future sales to lower than expected Afrezza. • Changes to our estimates and valuation. We reduced Afrezza sales ramp, which in turn pushed out profitability forecast for the JV and for MNKD leading to a reduction in price target (see exhibit 38). • What would make us constructive again? 1) Prescription data growth, 2) Turnaround plans addressing the challenges outlined in our survey, including Afrezza access, 3) SNY announcing long-term commitment on Nov. 6th analyst day and then delivering on long-term safety study since Afrezza is resource intensive, and 4) A stronger balance sheet for MNKD. Regardless, a turnaround could take time and in that period of uncertainty MNKD shares could be range bound or pressured. • Where could we be wrong? 1) Demand metrics could turn around, 2) Payers could ease access control as they are granted higher discounts, 3) SNY could acquire MNKD at some point, and 4) MNKD could address its financing overhang. In the end the ultimate question is whether administrative and perceptual hurdles posed for Afrezza can be overcome quickly and if SNY has the long term commitment to get there. RBC Capital Markets, LLC Adnan Butt (Analyst) (415) 633-8588 adnan.butt@rbccm.com Sector: Biotechnology Underperform
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Post by mannmade on Nov 3, 2015 20:56:05 GMT -5
Well this could explain the short build up of the last few days...
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 3, 2015 21:11:42 GMT -5
Yes I found it and you are right. It basically comes down to: 1. insurance: little to no coverage 2. Patient awareness: they haven't heard about it 3. Is Sanofi committed? And yes one big downgrade... I just finished reading the report and it basically seem to imply (my liberal interpretation!) that Sanofi isn't committed or else they wouldn't be doing such a terrible job (coverage, awareness, leaving Mannkind financially exposed). And it's kind of hard to argue with that... I would post it but there is no public link. This is as much as I can get. Sorry for the poor formatting: MannKind Corporation Physician survey indicates sluggish Afrezza growth; downgrading to UP Our view: We are reducing our Afrezza sales ramp and peak sales estimates based on our proprietary physician survey. Hurdles include modest patient interest/ awareness, cost and access issues, and slow growth. SNY, if committed, could still deliver if it addresses overhangs identified. However, with uncertainty around when the collaboration achieves profitability and MNKD’s balance sheet, we reduce our PT to $1 and downgrade to UP. Key points: • Key take-aways. Our changed outlook is based on our proprietary physician survey which explains disappointing IMS prescription data and SNY reported sales. Physicians are not too concerned about Afrezza safety/efficacy and the majority are willing to prescribe Afrezza upon patient request. However, patient interest (or awareness) remains low and Afrezza prescriptions appear to get lost due to payer hurdles. In addition, physicians perceive Afrezza and patient-out-of-pocket costs to be higher than other insulin products. Our survey indicates modest future market share growth (+13-22% annually), although we believe the total addressable market opportunity for Afrezza remains large. See details on following pages. • IMS prescription data shows that while Afrezza weekly prescriptions continue to increase, growth is modest and market share remains negligible at 0.15%. Note current usage reported by our survey respondents is higher; however, our sample size is small (N=51) and it correlates neither with IMS data nor reported sales. • SNY reported sales were ~EUR1M (~$1M) in 1Q:15 (partial quarter), EUR2M (~$2.2M) in 2Q and EUR2M (~$2.2M) in 3Q. Lack of sequential growth was followed by comments from SNY that attributed part of a reduction in future sales to lower than expected Afrezza. • Changes to our estimates and valuation. We reduced Afrezza sales ramp, which in turn pushed out profitability forecast for the JV and for MNKD leading to a reduction in price target (see exhibit 38). • What would make us constructive again? 1) Prescription data growth, 2) Turnaround plans addressing the challenges outlined in our survey, including Afrezza access, 3) SNY announcing long-term commitment on Nov. 6th analyst day and then delivering on long-term safety study since Afrezza is resource intensive, and 4) A stronger balance sheet for MNKD. Regardless, a turnaround could take time and in that period of uncertainty MNKD shares could be range bound or pressured. • Where could we be wrong? 1) Demand metrics could turn around, 2) Payers could ease access control as they are granted higher discounts, 3) SNY could acquire MNKD at some point, and 4) MNKD could address its financing overhang. In the end the ultimate question is whether administrative and perceptual hurdles posed for Afrezza can be overcome quickly and if SNY has the long term commitment to get there. RBC Capital Markets, LLC Adnan Butt (Analyst) (415) 633-8588 adnan.butt@rbccm.com Sector: Biotechnology Underperform Thanks for the info JPG. Before I read this part of the thread, I thought perhaps RBC's moral compass was calibrated in a similar fashion to some of the other Anti-MNKD entities and it was just another hit piece. Adnan's comments to be appear very matter of fact, without bias and even point to what would need to happen to improve MNKD's outlook. Who knows, perhaps on Wed and Thurs others pile on and drive the price down below $2 a share. Maybe on Friday, SNY comes out with some good news that drives the price to a new 52 week high courtesy of a bunch of shorts trying to squeeze through a small door. In some respects, Adnan gave Sanofi a kick in the ass with his comments and they justly deserve one. Sanofi has had enough time and while NRx last week showed strong growth, NRx need to have steady consistent week over week increases.
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Post by whanley7 on Nov 3, 2015 21:22:27 GMT -5
Holy sh*t. How can you make a downgrade like this without any real material news from either company? I imagine this will kill the SP.
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Post by mbseeking on Nov 3, 2015 21:36:47 GMT -5
The material news was Sanofi's negative Afrezza comments in their just released earnings report : in whose hands MNKD currently rests. Simply said they are reducing their revenue expectations for Afrezza. That's a cashflow impact for MNKD.. The only question for SNY now (and which maybe answered this Friday) is does SNY double down or walk away (or much worse - something between those two).
RBC have nailed it.
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Post by kc on Nov 3, 2015 21:38:35 GMT -5
Not very pleasant but perhaps it might be a catalyst for mankind and Sanofi to stand up and take some positive steps towards better PR and advertising. Darkest day before a new dawn hopefully. Remember there is more inherent value to the survival of Afrezza. Sanofi knows the value. But the lack of any news is really hurt our PPS. So it's time for both size to step up with information.
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Post by whanley7 on Nov 3, 2015 21:46:09 GMT -5
The material news was Sanofi's negative Afrezza comments in their just released earnings report : in whose hands MNKD currently rests. Simply said they are reducing their revenue expectations for Afrezza. That's a cashflow impact for MNKD.. The only question for SNY now (and which maybe answered this Friday) is does SNY double down or walk away (or much worse - something between those two). RBC have nailed it. A downgrade of 85% from their old target price because of some vague comments from Sanofi on their earnings call? That's BS. It is going to kill the stock price.
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dj
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Post by dj on Nov 3, 2015 21:52:34 GMT -5
Adnan Butt Analyst at RBC Capital Wall Street Analyst Ranked #3,391 out of 3,836 analysts (#7,365 of 8,518 overall experts)
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Post by saxcmann on Nov 3, 2015 21:56:22 GMT -5
The material news was Sanofi's negative Afrezza comments in their just released earnings report : in whose hands MNKD currently rests. Simply said they are reducing their revenue expectations for Afrezza. That's a cashflow impact for MNKD.. The only question for SNY now (and which maybe answered this Friday) is does SNY double down or walk away (or much worse - something between those two). RBC have nailed it. A downgrade of 85% from their old target price because of some vague comments from Sanofi on their earnings call? That's BS. It is going to kill the stock price. Well that rbc survey explains a lot. I think Afrezza is safe, Pts who use it like it, MDs are losing Rxs due to insurance and lack of product knowledge. All of which can change soon. Any mention of afrezza on Friday will eliminate sny dropping, imo.
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Post by EveningOfTheDay on Nov 3, 2015 22:01:31 GMT -5
Adnan Butt Analyst at RBC Capital Wall Street Analyst Ranked #3,391 out of 3,836 analysts (#7,365 of 8,518 overall experts) His ranking is not the point, specially if you did not look at it when he was praising the potential of Afrezza.
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Post by jpg on Nov 3, 2015 22:05:01 GMT -5
Adnan Butt Analyst at RBC Capital Wall Street Analyst Ranked #3,391 out of 3,836 analysts (#7,365 of 8,518 overall experts) Not saying he is good and has a good track record (1/2 star out of 5 rating is as bad as it gets) but simply that what this analysts is saying is logical and what we have been discussing for here for the last few months. It is what it is. Will it move share price? We will see. Theoretically all this is priced in to the current stock price but we all know this is a traders market (and a traders stock). Again nothing of what the report says is surprising or new. His view, although speaking for RBC...) is but that of one person. Does he have any insight as to how things will go this Friday? I doubt it but who knows? Is this a downgrade to protect a shaky call history 'just in case' Sanofi doesn't shower us with praise (or worst) come Friday? Don't know. I do know Friday will be much more material than the opinion of one RBC analyst.
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Post by bill on Nov 3, 2015 22:06:48 GMT -5
What I can't fathom is why RBC would release their downgrade today as opposed to waiting another 4 business days when their crystal ball will be less foggy-- especially citing all those caveats. Let's hope his downgrade is consistent with his analyst ranking.
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