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Post by porkini on Jan 10, 2018 14:03:03 GMT -5
Predictions I would say should be based on some sort of analysis. At this point we really don't have information to base predictions on. It seems there are two or three very crucial things we don't know. First is what have the results been in the regions where advertising is being done... i.e. how commercially response are scripts vs money spent on advertising. One might be able to substitute script growth results from another drug with similar insurance coverage vs amount of money spent on advertising (if one was privy to that sort of data for other drugs). Of course we also don't know when we'll see meaningful increase in insurance coverage (it seems some payers only update once a year so for those we'd know that change isn't happening within the 2018 window). I'm assuming that at least first half of 2018 insurance coverage will basically be what it is now. Finally we don't know how much money MNKD will be able to devote to advertising. Without analysis I think it's guessing. I'll wait to see what guidance management gives and how closely they came to meeting 2017 guidance... then I'll make my prediction for 2018. Are you serious, DBC? Of course, it's guessing and it's just for fun. No one here knows WTF is going to happen, if they did, they probably would have never been in this stock in the first place (or, better yet, would have sold out when we got the approval). Of course he's serious - didn't you notice that his little winky fell of the end of his post?
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Post by buyitonsale on Jan 10, 2018 14:09:11 GMT -5
I believe that one Friday this year we are going to see NRx double from a previous week. That would mean there are a lot of new writers due to demand or existing writers starting to prescribe to multiple patients. Let's wait until then to forecast... it will be more fun anyway as SP will jump as well
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Post by mnholdem on Jan 10, 2018 15:39:38 GMT -5
Using two of my forecasting models, the WAG and DBw2BF, weekly TRx will be near 10,000 by Jan-2019 and that's not even a small slice of the prandial pie.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 10, 2018 15:54:22 GMT -5
Are you serious, DBC? Of course, it's guessing and it's just for fun. No one here knows WTF is going to happen, if they did, they probably would have never been in this stock in the first place (or, better yet, would have sold out when we got the approval). Of course he's serious - didn't you notice that his little winky fell of the end of his post? Little? Let's not get personal about my winky... besides, it's normal sized... see Now let me press my over-sized, powerful and working send button.
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Post by peppy on Jan 10, 2018 15:55:35 GMT -5
Using two of my forecasting models, the WAG and DBw2BF, weekly TRx will be near 10,000 by Jan-2019 and that's not even a small slice of the prandial pie. good, because my shorthand bought into we need 2,500 scripts a week to survive. Let's get there fast.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 10, 2018 16:06:35 GMT -5
It would be interesting to know from those with what seem very aggressive growth numbers as to what their assumptions are regarding national advertising. Will the growth occur regardless of having a national ad campaign? or when do they think the national ad campaign would need to start to reach their prediction/guess/wish?
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Post by esstan2001 on Jan 10, 2018 16:09:52 GMT -5
Using two of my forecasting models, the WAG and DBw2BF, weekly TRx will be near 10,000 by Jan-2019 and that's not even a small slice of the prandial pie. good, because my shorthand bought into we need 2,500 scripts a week to survive. Let's get there fast. ...WAG and DBw2BF- OK, I will take a stab at this: Wild Arse Guess, that one is well known. I can not figure the other one, except maybe the ending , to Be Frank... ??
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Post by mnholdem on Jan 10, 2018 16:57:01 GMT -5
Of course he's serious - didn't you notice that his little winky fell of the end of his post? Little? Let's not get personal about my winky... besides, it's normal sized... see Now let me press my over-sized, powerful and working send button. Very, very funny. Well done!
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Post by mnholdem on Jan 10, 2018 16:57:39 GMT -5
good, because my shorthand bought into we need 2,500 scripts a week to survive. Let's get there fast. ...WAG and DBw2BF- OK, I will take a stab at this: Wild Arse Guess, that one is well known. I can not figure the other one, except maybe the ending , to Be Frank... ?? Nope...any other guesses?
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Post by esstan2001 on Jan 10, 2018 18:18:42 GMT -5
...WAG and DBw2BF- OK, I will take a stab at this: Wild Arse Guess, that one is well known. I can not figure the other one, except maybe the ending , to Be Frank... ?? Nope...any other guesses? don't bother (bet?) with too (two?) big friends? I cave...
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Post by buyitonsale on Jan 10, 2018 18:35:07 GMT -5
Drinking Bourbon with 2 Best Friends...
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Post by compound26 on Jan 10, 2018 19:08:06 GMT -5
...WAG and DBw2BF- OK, I will take a stab at this: Wild Arse Guess, that one is well known. I can not figure the other one, except maybe the ending , to Be Frank... ?? Nope...any other guesses? What A Guess? Drinking Beer! Work? To be Finished.
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Post by mnholdem on Jan 10, 2018 19:22:45 GMT -5
Drinking Bourbon with 2 Best Friends... I'll definitely try that method next time! But the correct answer is Dart Board with Two Blindfolds.
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Post by akemp3000 on Jan 10, 2018 21:59:18 GMT -5
Drinking Bourbon with 2 Best Friends... I'll definitely try that method next time! But the correct answer is Dart Board with Two Blindfolds. Not in a million years...but that was fun!
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Post by seanismorris on Jan 10, 2018 22:31:39 GMT -5
...WAG and DBw2BF- OK, I will take a stab at this: Wild Arse Guess, that one is well known. I can not figure the other one, except maybe the ending , to Be Frank... ?? Nope...any other guesses? Sorry, I’m going stay out of this one. My guesses are to Carma Sutra to be posted... I do find it interesting everyone else is turning to alcohol 🍺 for answers.
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