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Post by cjm18 on Jan 12, 2018 10:16:05 GMT -5
Assuming no partner I’m going with 39,999 due to no insurance improvements so far.
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Post by jay1ajay1a on Jan 12, 2018 13:17:13 GMT -5
I project 52,709
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Post by zuegirdor on Jan 12, 2018 17:27:35 GMT -5
30 million diabetics. If 10 % of them use Afrezza (assuming insurance will cover) thats roughly 500,000 refills a year. However we need to double that number of refills since, if my son's use pattern is considered average (?) it will take at least two of the 90(8u) and 90(4u) to cover what a diabetic actually needs per month. (I am not sure Mannkind gets this yet). So that is 1 million 90\90 kits year, at least until they adjust the pack size for reality, after which it is 500,000 refills/year.
Speaking of reality... Priced at $830 per kit, the cost of that much Rx volume will be almost a billion dollars a year. NOW were gettin' rich!! Enough humalog for a month is about $500 compared to $1600 for Afrezza. Think of how much money we will make at these prices. The insurance companies will love us since their rake will be that much higher too.....right? Maybe that prediction of 500,000 refills a year is too low since we are going to get all the type 2s health plans currently paying pennies a month for metformin to switch to Afrezza costing $1600 a month too.
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Post by babaoriley on Jan 12, 2018 17:37:51 GMT -5
30 million diabetics. If 10 % of them use Afrezza (assuming insurance will cover) thats roughly 500,000 refills a year. However we need to double that number of refills since, if my son's use pattern is considered average (?) it will take at least two of the 90(8u) and 90(4u) to cover what a diabetic actually needs per month. (I am not sure Mannkind gets this yet). So that is 1 million 90\90 kits year, at least until they adjust the pack size for reality, after which it is 500,000 refills/year. Speaking of reality... Priced at $830 per kit, the cost of that much Rx volume will be almost a billion dollars a year. NOW were gettin' rich!! Enough humalog for a month is about $500 compared to $1600 for Afrezza. Think of how much money we will make at these prices. The insurance companies will love us since their rake will be that much higher too.....right? Maybe that prediction of 500,000 refills a year is too low since we are going to get all the type 2s health plans currently paying pennies a month for metformin to switch to Afrezza costing $1600 a month too. "NOW were gettin' rich!!" A great reason the above wont happen. "The insurance companies will love us since their rake will be that much higher too.....right?" Not following here, please explain.
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Post by vdexdiabetes on Jan 13, 2018 16:32:40 GMT -5
I wanted to jump in with some real world feedback on the issue of script writing. Don't mean to be a downer, just giving info that board members might find helpful. We at Vdex interface with a lot of providers and a basic principle we operate under is the more experienced a provider is in the field of diabetes, the LESS likely he/she is to recommend Afrezza. It's obviously not 100%, but the phenomenon is common enough to make the point. In other words, those most "in the know" have soured on the product. I won't get into why that is; most here probably already know. The most common feedback we get from such providers is: "Afrezza's a niche product." "It's too expensive." "Patients aren't that interested." Translation for all of these: the provider doesn't really understand the product.
I don't think reps calling on busy docs or TV advertising will turn the ship around quickly, if at all. The product is so different. The conditions of the industry are so unfavorable. The incentives work against providers. This product requires a different sales model. Of course, that's self-serving to say. But, that has been our experience. I hope I'm wrong and scripts take off in the new year. But regardless, we'll be fighting the fight either way.
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Post by cjm18 on Jan 13, 2018 16:57:06 GMT -5
I wanted to jump in with some real world feedback on the issue of script writing. Don't mean to be a downer, just giving info that board members might find helpful. We at Vdex interface with a lot of providers and a basic principle we operate under is the more experienced a provider is in the field of diabetes, the LESS likely he/she is to recommend Afrezza. It's obviously not 100%, but the phenomenon is common enough to make the point. In other words, those most "in the know" have soured on the product. I won't get into why that is; most here probably already know. The most common feedback we get from such providers is: "Afrezza's a niche product." "It's too expensive." "Patients aren't that interested." Translation for all of these: the provider doesn't really understand the product. I don't think reps calling on busy docs or TV advertising will turn the ship around quickly, if at all. The product is so different. The conditions of the industry are so unfavorable. The incentives work against providers. This product requires a different sales model. Of course, that's self-serving to say. But, that has been our experience. I hope I'm wrong and scripts take off in the new year. But regardless, we'll be fighting the fight either way. On that note I’d like to lower my estimate from 39,999 to 32,999. I’m also not buying any more shares. The label change was supposed to help insurance coverage. There’s been no improvement and no announcement about any new payers despite mike insinuated the possibility. We have increased short interest. Also low volume and two horrible daily short interest on Thursday and Friday.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 14, 2018 0:04:33 GMT -5
I wanted to jump in with some real world feedback on the issue of script writing. Don't mean to be a downer, just giving info that board members might find helpful. We at Vdex interface with a lot of providers and a basic principle we operate under is the more experienced a provider is in the field of diabetes, the LESS likely he/she is to recommend Afrezza. It's obviously not 100%, but the phenomenon is common enough to make the point. In other words, those most "in the know" have soured on the product. I won't get into why that is; most here probably already know. The most common feedback we get from such providers is: "Afrezza's a niche product." "It's too expensive." "Patients aren't that interested." Translation for all of these: the provider doesn't really understand the product. I don't think reps calling on busy docs or TV advertising will turn the ship around quickly, if at all. The product is so different. The conditions of the industry are so unfavorable. The incentives work against providers. This product requires a different sales model. Of course, that's self-serving to say. But, that has been our experience. I hope I'm wrong and scripts take off in the new year. But regardless, we'll be fighting the fight either way. I would certainly be interested in hearing your perspective on the above. Do you think think there is opportunity with PCPs where perhaps they haven't really been aware of Afrezza and thus not "soured"?
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Post by dejude42 on Jan 14, 2018 0:23:44 GMT -5
Let me understand this a niche drug that individuals have been removed from insulin pumps? Quality of life has improved in drastic measures reported and now the understanding of usage modified by new electronic technics is being understood. Sorry if i did not know better I would think the above was written by a FUD. The time has never been better for the introduction of a drug of this type.
One must remember investment is long term adventure unless you are a short or option player. Edison experienced 1000 attempts to create a light bulb. His comment, " I discovered 999 ways how not to make it." Does affrezza work? Is it the only drug on the market that follows the human body actual actions? Understanding is the key and time is the patience needed.
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Post by peppy on Jan 14, 2018 0:34:46 GMT -5
30 million diabetics. If 10 % of them use Afrezza (assuming insurance will cover) thats roughly 500,000 refills a year. However we need to double that number of refills since, if my son's use pattern is considered average (?) it will take at least two of the 90(8u) and 90(4u) to cover what a diabetic actually needs per month. (I am not sure Mannkind gets this yet). So that is 1 million 90\90 kits year, at least until they adjust the pack size for reality, after which it is 500,000 refills/year. Speaking of reality... Priced at $830 per kit, the cost of that much Rx volume will be almost a billion dollars a year. NOW were gettin' rich!! Enough humalog for a month is about $500 compared to $1600 for Afrezza. Think of how much money we will make at these prices. The insurance companies will love us since their rake will be that much higher too.....right? Maybe that prediction of 500,000 refills a year is too low since we are going to get all the type 2s health plans currently paying pennies a month for metformin to switch to Afrezza costing $1600 a month too. agreed zuegirdor, $1600 a month in todays US dollars is crazy. we need insurance.
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Post by peppy on Jan 14, 2018 0:48:10 GMT -5
I wanted to jump in with some real world feedback on the issue of script writing. Don't mean to be a downer, just giving info that board members might find helpful. We at Vdex interface with a lot of providers and a basic principle we operate under is the more experienced a provider is in the field of diabetes, the LESS likely he/she is to recommend Afrezza. It's obviously not 100%, but the phenomenon is common enough to make the point. In other words, those most "in the know" have soured on the product. I won't get into why that is; most here probably already know. The most common feedback we get from such providers is: "Afrezza's a niche product." "It's too expensive." "Patients aren't that interested." Translation for all of these: the provider doesn't really understand the product. I don't think reps calling on busy docs or TV advertising will turn the ship around quickly, if at all. The product is so different. The conditions of the industry are so unfavorable. The incentives work against providers. This product requires a different sales model. Of course, that's self-serving to say. But, that has been our experience. I hope I'm wrong and scripts take off in the new year. But regardless, we'll be fighting the fight either way. quote: This product requires a different sales model. reply: what different sales model could be used? Ideas?
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Post by mango on Jan 14, 2018 2:05:28 GMT -5
I wanted to jump in with some real world feedback on the issue of script writing. Don't mean to be a downer, just giving info that board members might find helpful. We at Vdex interface with a lot of providers and a basic principle we operate under is the more experienced a provider is in the field of diabetes, the LESS likely he/she is to recommend Afrezza. It's obviously not 100%, but the phenomenon is common enough to make the point. In other words, those most "in the know" have soured on the product. I won't get into why that is; most here probably already know. The most common feedback we get from such providers is: "Afrezza's a niche product." "It's too expensive." "Patients aren't that interested." Translation for all of these: the provider doesn't really understand the product. I don't think reps calling on busy docs or TV advertising will turn the ship around quickly, if at all. The product is so different. The conditions of the industry are so unfavorable. The incentives work against providers. This product requires a different sales model. Of course, that's self-serving to say. But, that has been our experience. I hope I'm wrong and scripts take off in the new year. But regardless, we'll be fighting the fight either way. quote: This product requires a different sales model. reply: what different sales model could be used? Ideas? Passion, patience and persistence.
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Post by slugworth008 on Jan 14, 2018 8:35:24 GMT -5
quote: This product requires a different sales model. reply: what different sales model could be used? Ideas? Passion, patience and persistence. and last but not least "Continued PAIN. Now where is that dreamboat pain killer pouch?
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Post by peppy on Jan 14, 2018 9:05:55 GMT -5
I wanted to jump in with some real world feedback on the issue of script writing. Don't mean to be a downer, just giving info that board members might find helpful. We at Vdex interface with a lot of providers and a basic principle we operate under is the more experienced a provider is in the field of diabetes, the LESS likely he/she is to recommend Afrezza. It's obviously not 100%, but the phenomenon is common enough to make the point. In other words, those most "in the know" have soured on the product. I won't get into why that is; most here probably already know. The most common feedback we get from such providers is: "Afrezza's a niche product." "It's too expensive." "Patients aren't that interested." Translation for all of these: the provider doesn't really understand the product. I don't think reps calling on busy docs or TV advertising will turn the ship around quickly, if at all. The product is so different. The conditions of the industry are so unfavorable. The incentives work against providers. This product requires a different sales model. Of course, that's self-serving to say. But, that has been our experience. I hope I'm wrong and scripts take off in the new year. But regardless, we'll be fighting the fight either way. Quote; " Afrezza is a niche product."reply: Strange the physicians are using the same words the analyst from Goldman used in a note, when they covered MNKD. Quote: "It's too expensive." reply: I am not sure why the physician would care about this. Patients are usually covered by insurance. Why would the physician care about the cost of the insulin? Quote; "Patients are not interested" reply; physicians say that?
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Post by cjm18 on Jan 14, 2018 9:53:49 GMT -5
I wanted to jump in with some real world feedback on the issue of script writing. Don't mean to be a downer, just giving info that board members might find helpful. We at Vdex interface with a lot of providers and a basic principle we operate under is the more experienced a provider is in the field of diabetes, the LESS likely he/she is to recommend Afrezza. It's obviously not 100%, but the phenomenon is common enough to make the point. In other words, those most "in the know" have soured on the product. I won't get into why that is; most here probably already know. The most common feedback we get from such providers is: "Afrezza's a niche product." "It's too expensive." "Patients aren't that interested." Translation for all of these: the provider doesn't really understand the product. I don't think reps calling on busy docs or TV advertising will turn the ship around quickly, if at all. The product is so different. The conditions of the industry are so unfavorable. The incentives work against providers. This product requires a different sales model. Of course, that's self-serving to say. But, that has been our experience. I hope I'm wrong and scripts take off in the new year. But regardless, we'll be fighting the fight either way. Quote; " Afrezza is a niche product."reply: Strange the physicians are using the same words the analyst from Goldman used in a note, when they covered MNKD. Quote: "It's too expensive." reply: I am not sure why the physician would care about this. Patients are usually covered by insurance. Why would the physician care about the cost of the insulin? Quote; "Patients are not interested" reply; physicians say that? Maybe Goldman did research like talkng to doctors before issuing their opinion.
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Post by vdexdiabetes on Jan 14, 2018 15:19:40 GMT -5
I wanted to jump in with some real world feedback on the issue of script writing. Don't mean to be a downer, just giving info that board members might find helpful. We at Vdex interface with a lot of providers and a basic principle we operate under is the more experienced a provider is in the field of diabetes, the LESS likely he/she is to recommend Afrezza. It's obviously not 100%, but the phenomenon is common enough to make the point. In other words, those most "in the know" have soured on the product. I won't get into why that is; most here probably already know. The most common feedback we get from such providers is: "Afrezza's a niche product." "It's too expensive." "Patients aren't that interested." Translation for all of these: the provider doesn't really understand the product. I don't think reps calling on busy docs or TV advertising will turn the ship around quickly, if at all. The product is so different. The conditions of the industry are so unfavorable. The incentives work against providers. This product requires a different sales model. Of course, that's self-serving to say. But, that has been our experience. I hope I'm wrong and scripts take off in the new year. But regardless, we'll be fighting the fight either way. Quote; " Afrezza is a niche product."reply: Strange the physicians are using the same words the analyst from Goldman used in a note, when they covered MNKD. Quote: "It's too expensive." reply: I am not sure why the physician would care about this. Patients are usually covered by insurance. Why would the physician care about the cost of the insulin? Quote; "Patients are not interested" reply; physicians say that? Peppy, we had the same responses as you to those questions. Thats why I added the translation that those comments are doctorspeak for not knowing much about the product. Docs of course don't want to admit that to their patients. Interestingly enough, with two Vdex patients this week who discussed Afrezza with physician friends, the physicians BOTH said patients were not that interested in Afrezza. That's just absurd. I could tell from other comments the docs made that neither was that familiar with Afrezza yet each has a practice heavily devoted to diabetes.
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