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Post by trenddiver on May 25, 2016 15:52:33 GMT -5
For those interested in adding tor positions, my momentum indicators have just turned bullish. The last time I made a bullish call, the SP went from .95 to 2.25.
TREND
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Post by trenddiver on Apr 7, 2016 1:34:25 GMT -5
Trend, Whats your thought on today's action? Did you get stopped out when the pps dipped to $1.32? Is the sell off on essentially what was another non event news yesterday. There certainly has not been a shortage of hit pieces lately. Interest to borrow shares has gone up again. The shorts are still at it. I was out playing golf so I kinda missed today's action. Like i said in earlier posts, the price went from .67 to 2.25 on no news so why shouldn't it retreat on no news. The only addition I have to my most recent comments is that the 20 day moving average (which provided support on the way up) is at 1.67 while the SP is at 1.47. This could provide resistance to any price increases. The 50 day moving average is at $1.28, which should provide additional support. As I said before, MNKD has broken through significant resistance on the way up in the $1.50 area which it is now testing as support. Hopefully the price will consolidate at these levels in preparation for the next move up. I will update my technical analysis perspective after the market closes on Friday. Trend |
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Post by trenddiver on Apr 1, 2016 23:47:41 GMT -5
Technical update
Gap was closed this week, which was necessary to allow for any future rally. All of the indicators which were overbought have now returned to a more neutral position. The 20 day moving average, which has supported the recent run up is at $1.62. I'm expecting another test of the $1.50 support level. The daily and weekly MACD indicators which I closely follow have entered a divergent state. The daily is in a bearish configuration, and the weekly is in a bullish configuration. As long as the weekly MACD remains bullish, I'll be constructive on the SP. For those who missed the rally up to the $2.25 level or for MNKD traders, a price drop to $1.50 is a good reentry point with a stop at $1.40.
Trend
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Post by trenddiver on Mar 29, 2016 0:41:57 GMT -5
The technicals are playing out as forecasted. After a strong run from .67 the $2.25 area (on no news), the stockprice became way overbought. A pullback was imminent and necessary. As mentioned in my previous post, I'm was looking for a pullback to the $1.50 area to test support and close the gap. The 20 day moving average coincidentally comes in at $1.49 which should provide additional support.
Trend
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Post by trenddiver on Mar 19, 2016 2:16:46 GMT -5
For several reasons, I'm looking for a pullback soon. The action on Friday although exciting resulted in a spinning top candlestick which often indicates a reversal. Also the shorter term indicators (RSI, and Stochastics) are in overbought territory. These indicators can sometimes remain in overbought territory for awhile. Additionally there is a gap that must be closed at the $1.54 level. Finally, the recent SP increase has been closely tracking the 20 day moving average which is currently at $1.25. So at $2.00, we are very extended. So for all of those reasons, I'm expecting a pullback to close the gap and test support at the $1.50 level. My primary indicators are still in a longer term bullish configuration.
GLTA
Trend
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Post by trenddiver on Mar 18, 2016 20:27:14 GMT -5
Thought I woul repost my investment thesis made on February 24, when I advised the board that the technical indicators had turned bullish. At that time the SP was less than a $1. I think what you are seeing here is this thesis playing out. Trend "All you have to do is watch the price action to know that the shorts are in control. That doesn't mean that technical analysis isnt reflecting bullish indicators. My current investment thesis is that these strong bullish indicators could draw interest in the stock from those who follow technical analysis which could create share price momentum drawing in momentum players, which would put a lot of pressure on the shorts, which could create additional bias to the upside. I admit it's a little contrarian considering what's happening on the business side. Also, not too much downside. Risk is only a $1 a share vs. large upside if things turnaround. " Trend Read more: mnkd.proboards.com/user/126/recent#ixzz43J8DJZOO |
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Volume
Mar 7, 2016 13:50:34 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by trenddiver on Mar 7, 2016 13:50:34 GMT -5
This has got to be torturous upon the shorts. Paying 50% + in interest and seeing the SP creep up slowly virtually every day. Nobody can explain why this is happening, but the charts and technical indicators are speaking. Trend I would imagine that a huge chunk of them have been short from much higher, I doubt they are feeling much pain yet - even with the interest rate. What they made up to now doesn't matter any more to the hedgies. Last years profit is past info. It's what have you done lately that matters, and many of them are suffering large losses, especially those that shorted at prices in the 60's, 70's and 80's. Trend |
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Post by trenddiver on Mar 7, 2016 12:01:30 GMT -5
volume we had some premarket volume this morning, 38,000 ish. screencast.com/t/YhcQZlCz It doesn't take many shares take many buys in shares to move stock price. 547,133 shares at 15 mins today which is good volume these days.
1.24 resistance needs to break and hold, then price can head up and close the gap, which is $1.41.
This has got to be torturous upon the shorts. Paying 50% + in interest and seeing the SP creep up slowly virtually every day. Nobody can explain why this is happening, but the charts and technical indicators are speaking. Trend |
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Post by trenddiver on Mar 5, 2016 14:59:59 GMT -5
I am going on record. RLS = Google Life Sciences. Google is involved with the Glucose monitoring system. Just makes sense to me. Just guessing! For whatever my two cents is worth, I'm sticking with Vulcan and Paul Allen Trend |
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Post by trenddiver on Mar 4, 2016 16:46:08 GMT -5
That is interesting, so TA has been pretty accurate with MNKD over the past year. Glad to hear that. Wondering what our other TA followers like trend and joey ( has he disappeared?) think about this reversal? had to pinch myself...nope still here just continuing to sleep ZZzzzz through the noise watching the longer term chart continue to play out  finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=MNKD+Interactive#{"range":"max","allowChartStacking":true} WAKE UP Joey, good things are happening. The bullish call made 2 weeks at $.95 has finally been confirmed with the obliteration of the $1.10 resistance. Don't be surprised if the price backs off and retests the $1.10 level (previous resistance, now support). I'm looking for the SP to move to the $1.45-$1.50 area where we will again face strong resistance. The April 4 date will create a lot of bullish investor speculation which could take us to higher levels. Congrats to all who jumped in at lower prices. Trend |
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Post by trenddiver on Mar 2, 2016 16:58:34 GMT -5
If there's anything to take away from this, wouldn't it be that there aren't plans of selling the company currently in the works? Wouldn't it be kind of pointless to do all of this if they weren't at least trying to keep the ship afloat? I don't think we can draw any conclusions about sale or no sale based on what is going on with options or anything else for that matter. Trend |
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Post by trenddiver on Mar 2, 2016 16:53:06 GMT -5
Trend, why is a delay or an impairment relevant or even bad news? It is all about news that have a direct impact on scripts, or a jump in script numbers, or a big upfront payment. Impairment is just book value. And a delay is just a delay. Everyone knows right now that MNKD will need some cash mid of this year. So why do you make such a fuss about it? Beside this there is nothing to analyse 'technically' with this stock. If you look at Level 2 there are literally tons of stock for every $0.01 up till $1.12, continued up to a big stopper of 546k at 1.18 then 427k at 1.25. Highest one > 99k is 100k for 1.41. This stock is so much controlled that chart analysis does not make much sense. Wasn't planning to cause a fuss, I was just reading the release and pointing out an interesting disclosure about impairment of assets. Some people might find that important. The merits or lack thereof of technical analysis have been thoroughly debated several times on this board. You may think it doesn't apply with MNKD, I think that technical analysis can provide very important insight. Let's leave it at that. Trend |
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Post by trenddiver on Mar 1, 2016 11:27:53 GMT -5
The accountants are justifiably concerned about giving a clean audit opinion on a company with a significant risk of a near-term bankruptcy. The last 10Q showed $191 million in property & equipment and $23 million in inventory. At current sales rates, that is many years of inventory in an industry that rarely holds more than what is required to supply the market for around six months. Similarly, a lot of the equipment is specific to production of Afrezza and resale value for pharmaceutical production equipment is normally about 10 cents on the dollar, and rarely more than 20 cents. The bottom line is that there are substantial investments shown on the balance sheet for a product that is not selling very well. While Matt has some strategies for reversing the weak sales trend the auditors are not going to give any credit for that when they revalue the assets at fair market value so expect some big write-offs. This is just the accounting catching up with what the market has already decided about the company. It is hard to argue that as the share price has declined from $7 to $1 over the past twelve months the value of the assets should remain untouched. This isn't cash; it is just a few catch-up accounting entries that reflect the current economic reality that everybody knows about already. The upside is that to the extent that Matt is successful in turning the ship around it will be easier to show a profit if the production assets have be written down to a more reasonable value. Your points are well taken. I don't think the auditors will be able to give a clean opinion. There will most likely be a "going concern" qualification due to liquidity concerns. |
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Post by trenddiver on Feb 29, 2016 17:31:26 GMT -5
"impairment" stuck out for me as well. it's clearly negative, the question being to what degree. logically i cannot see what the company can announce at this call that will move the needle or even keep it where it currently is: no further RLS news (we're on their timeline for any reveals), afrezza sales were still meager, can't divulge 2016 marketing plans yet as SNY hasn't yet returned the license, ~60M in cash for year end but obviously less now, TS pipeline 'in process', etc., and with al now gone, the street will only have questions about the mann group backstop (matt definitively said it's in place but you know they'll ask again, "for color") and how al's shares will be handled. it'll be a lot of fear. near-term, i just don't see how the SP doesn't get pounded back to .80s, so i may be sitting on the sidelines till then so i can buy more when it dips. what are others planning, if i might ask? and trend, your recent TA has come true on a stock where logic is almost wholly absent. what do you make of the 1.23 spike this am? someone initiating a new position? MNKD seems to be climbing the wall of worry. Nothing but bad news, yet the stock is holding its own and on even moving up some. The SP is challenging resistance in $1.05-$1.10 area. I'm thinking the climb to $1.23 is probably some buy stops that were taken out creating a short term squeeze. As for the technicals, they are all very constructive. The 50 day moving average is currently at $1.05 so this is a critical point technically. If the SP can hold in here in spite of the lack of favorable news, it will be very bullish for the stock. I'm crossing my fingers.
Trend
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Post by trenddiver on Feb 29, 2016 15:35:39 GMT -5
So I just read this announcement regarding the potential extension request for filing the 10-K. I thought the sentence explaining the delay was interesting, particularly that the delay was necessary for "completing a detail review of the impairment of assets as a consequence of the termination." I wonder what assets Mannkind thinks are impaired and the amount of write down that is implied by the wording of the statement. Maybe its part of building the legal case against Sanofy (unlikely, but possible). Also maybe the new Chairman and CEO want a clean slate as they take over the business going forward. Trend finance.yahoo.com/news/mannkind-potentially-file-2015-10-140000325.html |
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