Tinkerbell
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Post by Tinkerbell on Jan 15, 2019 9:24:59 GMT -5
Hey Galileo, where are you? Cat got your tongue? Meow and don't come back with stupid comments from other people sitting back giving their useless opinions. In the style of Jack Welsh, Mike's here to win, not to make friends with bozos of every ilk.
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Tinkerbell
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Post by Tinkerbell on Jan 15, 2019 9:21:48 GMT -5
To Liane and other MC Cheerleaders, ................. I’ve spoken to 5 executives who’ve worked with Mike.......
I was going to take an over/under bet after 12/29 when this puppy was birthed.....I would have lost because it went over 1 week, as another wonder likes to say "oh my" that quote alone was hysterical . I can honestly say I met a dozen folks that met Mike and are either the most gullible naive folks I've met in a long time or were fairly objective individuals that have made a 180 degree assessment. Where do they land from is my question, same place as Socrates, Plato, and Aristotle I suppose....right in line with that rainbow unicorn that stopped by, remember that one lol. Anyone can quote an Executive. They are a dime a dozen and if they are complaining about a new Leader who has come in and started the process of turning a company around, then IMO they are failed as Executive. Why? Ask yourself if they were a part of the failed team for which the new CEO was hired to fix. Sour grapes anyone? Here, let me get you some Afrezza.......
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Tinkerbell
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Post by Tinkerbell on Jan 15, 2019 0:42:21 GMT -5
You want people with diabetes to remember your commercial. Which of these statements is more likely to be remembered? "Afrezza is the only insulin you inhale." or "There is NO insulin like Afrezza". Positioning a product means you advertise so that people remember your brand, even if they don't remember every word in the commercial. "Unexpected Moments" is a fine message and a good start. It's positive and eye-catching. Hopefully, the next Afrezza commercial will be even better. Honestly, Unexpected Moments is perfect and describes what diabetics face every single day. That they can overcome these moments with Afrezza is to the point. Just eat and inhale insulin and not swallow pills that can shut your kidneys down. Diabetes can do that on its own so who needs additional risk added to risk already. Just my two cents.
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Tinkerbell
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Post by Tinkerbell on Jan 15, 2019 0:36:29 GMT -5
Tinkerbell, I hope you understanding that I'm not endorsing Jardiance but merely using it to illustrate how they are positioning their drug for the market. The commercial actually plays like a heart medication rather than a diabetes drug! No worries - of course I realize that you are not promoting Jardiance. As far as the commercial, clearly there's a significant play on words which is not so obvious. First, he says "good news" for those who have Type 2 diabetes heart disease. Huh? Type 2 Diabetes Heart Disease. So then does he mean that the heart disease is secondary to the Type 2 diabetes because it's not been well controlled to begin with? A1C is the predictor of good or bad health in diabetics. Any Type 2 who develops heart disease on account of their diabetes is not well controlled at all. If you stop the tape at 26 seconds - you'll see what kind of wool this commercial is trying to pull over your eyes. Stop the tape at 33 and then again at 39 seconds. Then again at 1:26 seconds. They actually infer that an A1C is not that important when it comes to preventing heart disease. Sounds like it's time for Type 2's to get their Afrezza out so they can have a feast on that Jambalaya this commercial is trying to force feed down their throats.
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Tinkerbell
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Post by Tinkerbell on Jan 14, 2019 20:22:27 GMT -5
Next time there's a new commercial for any oral medication for diabetes I would dare any BP to shoot it out front of a Dunkin Donuts or Tim Horton's
That's my story and I'm sticking to it.
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Tinkerbell
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Post by Tinkerbell on Jan 14, 2019 20:18:50 GMT -5
May I be honest?
Do you see a single Starbucks or Dunkin Donuts within eye shot of any place depicted on this commercial where the talking head is speaking? In real life, the talking head in this commercial should be filmed right in FRONT of Pepe's Pizza joint. How misleading when it comes to the realities of being a diabetic. Reduce CVT and heart attacks? Really? The reason for hospitalizations, blindness and amputations, heart attacks, strokes - you name it is BECAUSE diabetics DON'T want to spend their entire life not eating or drinking what other people are eating and drinking when they are eating and drinking. Do you not see the freedom that Afrezza offers that Jardiance could never provide - not in a million years?
A cousin of mine just died at age 60 from Type 1 diabetes due to a massive heart attack. Why? She just did not always want to follow the regimen, she was afraid of lows so instead she ran high - her entire life. Afrezza could have helped her but it's not yet approved in Canada. Oh well.
The Afrezza commericial is AWARD winning because FOR ONCE, it does not focus on risks of diabetes (we know what they are), the potential side effects of a non-insulin drug (yeah we know about those too), nor does it lead off with 'with XYZ drug, maintaining a healthy diet and exercise, you can avoid complications of diabetes.' What? We didn't know that?
Big SNOOZE and an even bigger SNORE!
Afrezza's commercial is RIGHT on the money because diabetics want to eat what everyone else is eating on 1)Game day 2)Thankgiving and all the other holidays too 3)at the PROM, 4)at a House Party, 5)on a PICNIC 6)at Pepe's Pizza joint 7)at Starbucks 8)at Dunkin Donuts, McDonalds, Burger King - you name it. That doesn't mean they can go hog wild but they can eat some of the foods others are partaking of. Yes. They. Can. Jardiance can do sweet bugger all about that. Nada.
Finally, just what is it about the Award Winning Afrezza commercial that folks don't understand? Is it the humor of showing diabetics that FINALLY Afrezza can save them from a life of want? Well that's funny alright because all traditional diabetes treatments available won't touch food with a 10 foot pole in any of their commercials. Not. A. One. Ain't never gonna see it.
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Tinkerbell
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Post by Tinkerbell on Jan 14, 2019 17:36:46 GMT -5
To Liane and other MC Cheerleaders, Y’all asked for more evidence supporting my opinion about Mike Castagna. Fair enough. I’ll share as much as I can but I’m limited. The unflattering picture I have of him is a mosaic composed of disparate bits of information I’ve gathered. It’s not something I’ve hatched because I don’t like the guy. I started from a neutral position, neither pro or con. I’ve not met Mike so I am relying on two broad groupings of information: the opinions of people who’ve worked directly with Mike and actions I’ve seen Mike take during his time at MNKD. I hope you appreciate that negative information is rarely well received by those who are dug in on their position, which is one reason we hear so little of it. Political correctness also stifles it. I’ve spoken to 5 executives who’ve worked with Mike, 3 in former companies and 2 now departed from MNKD. None of them want their names used so these anonymous sources are subject to that criticism. So be it. Dismiss what I write below if you want. All five said very similar things: 1) Mike is ruthlessly political, 2) out for his own good, 3) will stab people in the back-has no loyalty, 4) is only interested in his own ideas or ideas that he can take credit for, 5) surrounds himself with yes men, and 6) is a very good talker. One said upon hearing Mike was made CEO of MNKD said he lost all respect for or interest in the company. The guy said Mike was “not impressive,” and he wondered how a company could be so desperate to make Mike the leader. He questioned whether the MNKD BOD was “asleep at the wheel.” This person is a successful, high-profile businessman who’s held high level executive positions in companies that you’d all recognize instantly. He has no apparent axe to grind. The other two non-MNKD people said mostly the same thing and that Mike was ambitious to a fault. These were people I met randomly so I didn’t seek out the contrary opinions. Let's see: Jack Welsh was what? 1) not ruthlessly political, 2) not out for his own good 3)never stabbed anyone in the back 4) not interested in his own agenda and didn't take credit for turning GE around? 5) surrounded himself with folks who complained endlessly when he wanted something done and 6) he was not an extraordinary talker. Yeah. That sums it up. My response to the folks with such wisdom about what it takes to be a leader - 'ta ta and don't let the door hit you on your way out.'The two departed MNKD execs told me to look at the turnover since Mike came in. They said good, competent people don’t like working with Mike because he is so obviously calculating and self-absorbed. He is not a team player. One told me Mike privately admitted to him his goal to displace Matt Pfeffer within a month or two of Matt bringing Mike in. He said Mike went right to work on the BOD undermining MP. The other said Mike is a phony who’ll pretend to befriend you but will knife you in the back when it suits him and will step over the body. One commented that Mike’s line is “I’ve never failed with a drug.” I could go on, but you get the point. A leader is calculating and self absorbed and they absolutely NEED TO BE. Responsibility for leading any charge IS NOT A SHARED ONE - ask any 5 Star General if making a FINAL decision is his to make and HIS ALONE or if it's shared with all of his company of men dribbling in their opinions? Mistakes or not - Mike is the CEO until the BOD decides he's not.
Full Stop.
Pfeffer was not fit to commercialize paper towels let alone Afrezza. Period. If he'd continued to be in charge, this board would not exist. Go ahead, dispute me on this. Mike would have worked his ass off and guess who would have gotten the credit? Yeah?
Sometimes you need to clean house yourself before you put in the effort to remodel it. I don't want any CEO who even has the term 'failure' as part of his vocabulary. Period. Not interested.
The actions Mike has taken himself are also revealing. Go back and listen to what Mike says in presentations over the past 18 months. He always sounds like he’s got it all figured out, like success is just months away, and that he and the team are wonderful. He’s never admitted mistakes or failure. He doesn’t mention things that don’t go well. For example, he claims the DTC campaign in Q4-2017 worked well, yet he abandoned it. In the most recent conference call he talked about all the progress in 2018, yet given the huge marketing spend, the script numbers are horrible. Remember, nobody made Mike issue guidance of $25-30 million. He did so because he was confident about exceeding it. He actually delivered about half. Mike implies he brought in Kendall. I happen to know that the company talked to Kendall long before Mike was even on the scene. They had worked on Kendall for a couple years. Yet, Mike lets everyone think it was his idea. Consider the move of HQ. Know what his proffered explanation was? Because MNKD needs to be located there to recruit talent. Well, guess where Mike lives? One executive told me this was all about making Mike’s commute shorter. A good expenditure of company funds? I don’t think so. I hope you are not suggesting that Mike should do as the CEO of BP did when he lost 3 nights sleep over the Horizon disaster? What are you suggesting here? As CEO Mike can change course at anytime he wishes and for those smart executives in high places, it should be plainly obvious why he's done so. And no, if you go on and on about your mistakes and how you could have done this better or that better, you are setting yourself up for what? TO GET FIRED?
Kendall joined during Mike's tenure as CEO, so yes, he gets credit for bringing him into the company. Yes. He. Does. The others did not succeed in their bid. Mike did.
And if Mike wanted the office moved next door to his house, so what? Valencia was a better deal for shareholders? If the move meant that Mike could work for 18 hours a day, go home for 6 hours (with zero commute) and then come back for another 18 hour day? Fine by me. Now, think about script renewals. Know why you don’t hear that talked about? Because they’re really bad. It’s been a problem from the start. That’s why revenue isn’t building the way one would expect. There’s no evidence that renewals are better following the DTC campaign. I’ve heard from people in a position to know that over 70% of the people who start Afrezza drop it. That’s a problem, yet it goes unmentioned.Again, you are barking up the wrong tree with your assessment of scripts. That 30% of new users stay on Afrezza is a big time BOON. What? Of an estimated 400 million that will have diabetes by 2030, 120 million using Afrezza is good enough for me. Tell those ex-Mannkind Execs good riddance on their departure as they were just a drain on the company. Naysayers - I could care less who they are, where they are or where they've been, they are ALL far from infallible and any pot calling a kettle black should be wary of the fires that are always burning below ready to take 'em down in a nano second. I was told that Mike has pushed for more executive compensation and less rank and file compensation, contrary to the what Al Mann believed. He’s out to feather his own nest while others suffer. Has anyone else been looking at executive compensation? Has company performance been so good that we need to reward these people the way we do? Do we really believe they deserve bonuses? Don’t you think this company is top heavy? Al Mann's belief DID NOT PRODUCE shareholder results. IT DID NOT. I would not even remotely compare Mike and his Exec team to the one that put together that 65% / 35% deal with Sanofi. Mike has pulled us far away from the specter of bankruptcy so yes, he absolutely gets compensated to the MAX. I have shares in a company that for all intents and purposes was clinging to life support so in my view, Mike can have all the feathers he wants. Liane you had a laundry list of “accomplishments” of Mike’s. I can counter each one, but let me deal with only one: the elimination of debt. You cite this as a credit to his leadership, but consider the cost: extreme and continuing dilution. The debt would have been preferable in the context of growing sales. If sales are ramping up one can handle the debt and avoid all the dilution. We shareholders would have kept more of the company. It is only because of the failure of sales that the debt became a problem, and we shareholders have seen our positions eroded. So, do you still think MC “accomplished” something by getting rid of it? He had to because his sales strategy bombed. Per my point above, all that counts are New Scripts. Did I mention New Scripts? If the conversion is 30%, then so be it. With better insurance coverage and a far better understanding of the hurdles (did you forget that Mike added the 12 unit cartridge?) the company needs NEW SCRIPTS converting to repeats 30% of the time and that ought to be the focus for 2019.
Toxic debt needed to be cleared because if was a NOOSE around the neck of MannKind and the razor focus which needs to be all consuming in 2019. Mike did right to get rid of it despite the dilution. Did I mention 30% conversion rate? Or did I say - 30% CONVERSION RATE? Wait a second, I did say 30% conversion rate. I’ve talked to two independent investment bankers who’ve examined the recent financings the company has done under Mike: their comments are that the deals are terrible and reek of desperation. They both felt the deals looked like the work of “amateurs.” They say this just turns off other possible partners. MNKD looks like a loser. MannKind has been in a losing proposition since 2014 when they inked that garbage deal with Sanofi. Investment bankers are a dime a dozen - just like financial analysts and advisors. They have no idea of the whole picture. If they did, they'd know why debt needed to be cleared for 2019. Bean counters - you can't live with them and you can't live without 'em. Again, did I mention 30% conversion rate? Make sure you tell them that this is the reality MannKind needs to focus on in 2019. Then, let's hear what they have to say about the deal and whether it's as desperate as they think it is. It needed to be done. FOCUS for 2019 cannot include interest payments. It simply cannot. I’ve talked to lower level of people at MNKD too who are still with the company. Obviously, they’re not going to say anything public, but hey the news is the same. It’s not good people. Honestly, I had a damn hard time finding someone closely associated with Mike who can say anything positive. Isn’t this odd?!
Who invested in MannKind is not already aware that the script numbers did not take off in the manner predicted by let's see - Matt Pfeffer and his 'embarassment of riches.' Huh? That would include the zombies who drank that Koolaid back in 2015 before they knew the clinical program had been severely botched and that not every diabetic would automatically switch to an inhalable if it didn't feel right for them.
They need to keep their lower level head to the grindstone and MOVE with focus on their job and the challenges at hand. Company talk is like cancer - it grows and grows and grows and before you know it, no one is doing their job nor earning their pay. You should know better than to buy into the squawk of lower level employees who are still working there. Why haven't they abandoned ship? Good question - ask and find out. I’m sure you’ve all heard enough by now, and diehard cheerleaders won’t be persuaded anyway, so I’ll leave you with this thought: It has been said by others that you want a CEO with integrity, energy and intelligence. But, without the first, the last two will kill you. I am not a cheerleader. I have seen all of this and more and it's called par for the course in any company which was BADLY managed before the new management team arrived. RESULTS are what matters and in a few words - NEW SCRIPTS, NEW SCRIPTS, NEW SCRIPTS, 30% CONVERSION, 30% CONVERSION, 30% CONVERSION.
Hopefully you've seen the light but perhaps in a different shade now. Don’t say I didn’t tell you. Likewise. Timely post on the eve of a new marketing campaign and increased spend on tv ads with Rx already rising prior. Not a coincidence in timing is my bet. Good luck to you though.
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Tinkerbell
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Post by Tinkerbell on Aug 26, 2018 8:20:56 GMT -5
I agree with most everything you say.. My main concern is enough money to give us that 5 year window you speak of.. This better be one heck of a recap. The mother of all recaps, Sweedee! FWIW - I don't believe MannKind needs a recap for 5 years - that's not what I intended to suggest. The recap is to get them to break-even where Afrezza sales are supporting their operations (including coverage of ongoing efforts here in the US and launch in Brazil). I'd anticipate that a decent recap provide a minimum of 12 months (18 months would be better) because by then, other countries would see launch such as Canada, Mexico, India etc. Additionally, pediatric use might also be in play assuming the trial is actually completed by next year with positive results. But once again, not everyone who tries Afrezza will continue on it and that's the part that is very difficult to nail down. I use 10% because it's a very conservative number and one that is achievable which is why new scripts is way more important at this juncture than repeat scripts. Repeats follow but at a much slower, more dependable rate. A second repeat likely suggests that the diabetic is quite content using Afrezza in whichever fashion they choose. Anyway once operations are fully covered by Afrezza sales, we should see steady growth towards launch of TrepT sometime in 2021-22. That's perhaps closer in line with my thoughts however, it will still take about 5 years from 'the real Afrezza launch' in February 2017 with a fully dedicated MannKind sales team to discern if Afrezza could become the elusive 'blockbuster' (albeit measured in line with repeat scripts) that Al and others intended it to be. We just don't know at this juncture so we wait.
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Tinkerbell
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Post by Tinkerbell on Aug 25, 2018 10:53:20 GMT -5
I do have a difficult time explaining how MannKind’s former Chief Commercial Officer, who was selected by the Board of Directors for a CEO position in spite of his lackluster results, is still struggling with the effective marketing of Afrezza. I happen to agree with CEO Castagna that scripts should be in tens of thousands, but I have yet to see any sign whatsoever that he can deliver market acceptance. He may have sold himself to the majority owners and the BoD but he has not sold himself to me or a majority of shareholders. I’m not prepared to give Castagna full credit for the Kendall hiring either. Castagna was the closing pitcher on that win. Was he so arrogant that he believed his marketing skills & ideas alone were sufficient to get the job done (via his hiring of specialists) and only now after nearly three years of getting control of Afrezza back from Sanofi he’s putting together a qualified marketing team? Perhaps he blamed his lack of success on the previous CEO. But now, as CEO, all failure and success must be laid on his shoulders. I believe Afrezza will eventually become successful because of the Kendall hiring. The new marketing team is an unknown at this point. But Castagna, unfortunately, still remains a big unknown to shareholders and to Wall Street. I respectfully disagree with your views though you are certainly entitled to them. When Mike joined the company in March 2016, MannKind had no commercial organization to speak of. They didn't have a sales training program - period. Mike literally had to start from scratch and his first goal was to make sure that MDs knew Afrezza was not going away. Many thought it was going to wither on the vine once Sanofi ended the agreement. I clearly remember Mike saying that his number one priority was to make sure MDs knew Afrezza was here to stay. That was the most important critical step he needed to accomplish. He launched with a Sales Organization in July 2016. You know the rest of the story. The CCO's job was filled by Pat McCauley on July 12, 2017 (not even six weeks into Mike's CEO tenure). Pat recently reported growth over last year and in my view, for all intents and purposes, the company has just completed it's 'real' First Year of Launch in that it's been monitored and assessed by an individual who isn't ALSO the CEO.
Afrezza scripts are not Mike's direct responsibility anymore - he has moved onto other activities a CEO is responsible for. So then, who should be fired? Pat? What? After just one year? I don't think so. He's been in the sales arena for over 25 years and he understands the challenges of Afrezza in that it simply is not a "one size fits" all insulin. It isn't. Clearly that is also evident in the numerous studies conducted by MannKind where not every Afrezza user completed the studies right? But if only 10% of worldwide diabetics finds it works great for them then that number is nothing to snicker at (40-60 million through 2045). Pat has said he is especially keen on working with Dr. Kendall to solidify Afrezza's standing among MDs and that the key to long term growth are New Scripts. Given what happened on trials, why does that make sense? Are new scripts dropping? I don't think so. Are repeat scripts steadily rising? I think so. So now what about marketing? That too belongs in Pat's court. He's now brought Garrett on board to do this. This will not happen overnight either but clearly they are preparing to launch in other countries so the timing is correct in terms of building a marketing organization. Garrett however is not coming in with nothing to build from. A lot has been done with Afrezza from a commercial standpoint by both Mike (initially) and Pat. She won't be getting a bucket of ice water to work with like Mike got. So then the question is, if Mike is not expected to do the job of a CCO or Marketing - just what is his job? It's not counting Afrezza scripts day in and day and it's not making TV commercials either. He's already done both. I maintain that we need to wait a minimum of 5 years to see the true potential of Afrezza. Not everyone who tries it will stay on it but we should see a minimum of 10 repeats for every 100 new scripts. That's how it grows. Slow but steady. And finally, I trust Mike and Steve have a plan in place to recap the company without diluting shareholder value. Mike has stated that's his goal and he is striving to do this. Why should I doubt him? Mike has delivered on his promise to keep this company alive and what's more, he's done it without the benefit of 1500 sales reps. I can wait for him to announce the recap once the papers are signed and delivered which in my estimate should be fairly soon.
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Tinkerbell
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Post by Tinkerbell on Nov 13, 2017 16:16:30 GMT -5
For those of you who have any doubt regarding what you ought to vote (or not) come December 13th, read the link below and then go to clinicaltrials.gov and study the design of the CURRENT OPEN trials underway and understand the details and outcomes intended. Beyond providing salaries and bonuses, understand that the new shares will fund the Phase 4 program and Treprostinil. Perhaps, after you've reviewed the link (and reviewed all current open studies which includes one Phase 2), then you may have a better understanding of how the additional funds as requested by Mike and the Board will ALSO be USED. And NO, they aren't being requested for the sole purposes of rewarding employees. Mike is very milestone driven (as he should be) so if key company strategic milestones are met and are on time, frankly, I have zero problem rewarding employees for their focus and achievement because in the end that kind of activity is deserving of recognition. This is my perspective only. Those who plan to vote NO or ABSTAIN have every right to do so though you should be clear that your NO vote moves against the Phase 4 program and submission of the Treprostinil IND. It does that by 100%. In my view, you simply cannot give a new CEO who is as driven and milestone focused as Mike is, less than ONE YEAR to determine if his influence will produce the kind of results investors have waited years to see. The prior management was disasterous for Afrezza which is nothing like the current which has done a solid job on several fronts since May when Mike assumed the position. The share price is not at .69 post split is it. And no, scripts won't magically reflect all of these efforts until end of Q1 2018. More time IS required and the STAT study will be published and pushed out by then. It's a very important pilot study that will provide real-life data in the clinical setting (not in the controlled setting). Now at some point when investor paper losses are recoverd, then one can sell if they are tired of holding the investment but one should never belie the fact that they 1) decided to buy the stock when they did; 2) held onto is for as long as they did; 3) sold when they did. MannKind management had (and has) nothing to do with your decisions regarding their stock. We've each chosen our own brand of poison. As for me, I am waiting on the Phase 4 trials to report out so, YES, they have my vote in the affirmative for increasing shares as requested. Again my opinion only based on what I've seen to date re: management performance. Here's the link: www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3493021/
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Tinkerbell
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Post by Tinkerbell on Nov 10, 2017 13:17:22 GMT -5
From the clinical trials site itself re: STAT study. I've said several times that the results would be ready in December so insurance companies can have the results in January. Primary Endpoint Completion is December 15, 2017. It's the HbA1c draw at 4 weeks for the last patient who started treatment this week. Mike said on the conference call the study has just finished recruiting. So that last patient will come back for their primary endpoint visit in early December. Here are the dates but what's most telling is if you look at the link itself (below the info below), you will see that the last UPDATE was November 9th which is in keeping with what Mike C. said on the call November 7th. Estimated Enrollment:60 Actual Study Start Date:September 30, 2017 Estimated Study Completion Date:December 31, 2017 Estimated Primary Completion Date:December 15, 2017 (Final data collection date for primary outcome measure) clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03143816?term=Afrezza+STAT&rslt=Without&type=Intr&cond=Diabetes&phase=3&draw=1&rank=1
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Tinkerbell
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Post by Tinkerbell on Nov 9, 2017 20:05:53 GMT -5
I just wanted to tie a few things together that hopefully provides some thoughts on how it's important to consider many factors and not just the 140M shares people will vote on in December.
1) IF: the STAT study is positive, it will lead to better insurance coverage; 2) IF: the commercials in the 9 test markets prove effective, it will lead to more requests for Afrezza and at the PCP level (not just Endos); 3) IF: PCPs start seeing these commercials, they too will investigate the drug on their own to prepare for script requests; 4) IF: script counts ramp up thru year end and into Q1 2018 (especially in the 9 test markets), this will the stage for a raise in 2018 (c below); 5) IF: as Pat alluded to in his presentation, the methodology for recognizing revenues for Afrezza is successfully implemented and very clear; THEN:
The stock price will begin to move up commensurate with those revenues. So now, what about the ATM limit? The vote in Decemember should address it because $50M is undeniably inadequate and so it must be increased to $150M. This assures that any raise shareholders are asked to vote on will sustain the company's operation for one full year including more aggressive marketing.
So then, when the stock price reaches the $7.00 price point (per Wainwright), say in March 2018, then it would make all the sense in the world to issue 21.5 million shares to raise ~ $150M. This would see the company through until March 2019 or later when the price would be closer to $14 a share (perhaps more - right?). A second infusion of cash (say $150M again) would only require 10.75M shares in 2019. Do I think that in March 2020 a raise to this level would be required? No because by then, Mike will have his partner(s) in place.
Finally, with additional shares in pocket and increasing sales, MannKind has NEVER been in a better position going into January 2018 - never better and not since it's IPO in 2004. Again, just my opinion.
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Tinkerbell
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Post by Tinkerbell on Nov 8, 2017 12:54:54 GMT -5
If I may, can I provide a scenario that could (I mean could) have a very positive effect on the price of any number of shares that could be offered say in March of next year or sooner?
First, what if the STAT study of 60 participants shows unequivocally that Afrezza kept the 30 subjects assigned to this arm in normal range during the period following any meal 95% more of the time than Lispro? 75% or even 50% of the time over Lispro? Could that impact the share's value?
Secondly, what if in four weeks the Afrezza group was able to lower their HbA1c by .5 or more where Lispro could not achieve even a .1? Could that impact the share's value?
Thirdly, what if insurers input to the STAT study was this simple: if you can show us those kinds of disruptive results in a controlled clinical trial and within a 4 week period (virtually unheard of), we should be able to see our way to removing pre-authorization but you'll still need to convince the MDs to prescribe it and we're keeping it at a level 3/4.
What then? Have you really delved deep into the STAT study and what could come out of it?
That is why Mike is so adamant about it's completion and reporting of results.
So, as this authorization vote is scheduled for approx. mid December, I would not rule out a well timed press release of preliminary results. I can't say it will happen but I would not rule it out.
In my view, Mike already knows what the data looks like. He said he could not wait until all of the data is in so he could see what the final results look like. He did not say he knew or didn't know what they look like as of yesterday's call. I suspect he knows it is looking extremely positive and so does Kent. I realize this is all conjecture at this point but I have my suspicions and am entitled to them.
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Tinkerbell
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Post by Tinkerbell on Nov 8, 2017 10:40:33 GMT -5
[yes, I'm upset this little 50% dilution was glossed over as if nothing] Are you really assuming that approval of the authorization of an additional 140 million shares means that 100% of those newly authorized shares will be flipped in a raise?!Actually, I hope at a minimum 100M will be flipped in a raise. Yes I do. At a 23M burn per quarter and to get through years 3 and 4 of this launch, they will need 200M. Why have the agita associated with having to ask shareholders every 3-6 months to authorize more shares? This is pure distraction and one which shorts will take advantage of each and everytime. If the management team is not living up to expectations, get rid of them and hire new and make it sooner rather than later. That's all. Hard launch has commenced and to take advantage of it, they need more people in the field, more approvals around the world. There is no way they can focus on this if every three months they are faced with the spectre of what? Having to lay off good people or getting approval for another raise? Geesh. I just as soon get on with it. If they don't use all of the monies raised how about a forward split where I receive 5 shares for every 1 owned. You know? There's got to be a better way to ensure Afrezza's success. Finally, in my view, if you are going to feast on a pig, you don't start by cutting off one leg at a time, cook it and then cut of another do you? Slaughter it and cook it - ONCE. Sorry but that's how I think this should be done.
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Tinkerbell
Researcher
Watcher of the Skies
Posts: 143
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Post by Tinkerbell on Nov 7, 2017 23:13:25 GMT -5
Keep in mind that one of the investors that recently bought at $6 was the Chairman of the Board. He obviously knows everything that's going on behind the scenes and the future implications of such. It's doubtful it's simply a large dilution as some suggest just to raise more funds. The Chairman would have never made this investment knowing this was in the immediate strategic plans. It's more likely there's something else in the works, possibly another party involved in some way. I wish we knew. I look forward to an announcement and explanation that might come between December 13th, the date of the shareholder vote, and the start of the new year. I'm hoping this board can share other possible reasons for doubling the shares. Yes yes... Apple and Google and Amgen and Bill Gates are forming a partnership to invest $1 Billion dollars in MNKD... that has to be the answer this time. Do we really have to start another thread to speculate about companies willing to step in and invest at orders of magnitude over what they could buy out the entire company at this point? I'm sure management has built some buffer into how many shares they think they will need to sell, but the bottom line is that it is very likely that significant dilution is going to occur. It seems you're merely wishing to hear about some scenario where someone pays way more than they would need to in order to acquire those shares. Who knows, maybe Kent immediately shorted the shares and just pocketed the discount. I'm sure if they hadn't announced any new share creation there'd be people here citing that as meaning there was a partnership about to happen. We KNOW NOTHING because management has chosen to share nothing other than throwing the dilemma of voting to double the shares into our lap. I guess you're the perfect shareholder for management if you blindly assume that this means something great is happening before Christmas. Let's all vote for it so Santa comes down our chimney. [yes, I'm upset this little 50% dilution was glossed over as if nothing]I get that you're upset. Actually I was upset in June of this year and decided I would write a second letter addressed to the Board, CEO and Claude Mann. I sent the first in February 2016 to Matt, the Board and Claude which resulted in a case study at Harvard Business School. In June, I could not see anyway where a significant raise would not be required and especially as there were a minimum of 3 full years of the intial 5 year launch to get through. I trusted that Mike could turn the company around but, without a significant amount of money, he was not going to be able to do it. No way, no how. With that said, I did not mince my words about who deserved to be FIRST in line to purchase any new offering. I said, that as a long term investor that I want the offering of shares to be made to me first - and through a rights offering. Yes. I was very clear in my wording about this. I said I wanted the right to purchase 2 shares at a discount for every share I owned because it was MY money (and every other long term investor's money) that had paid for Afrezza through approval. Secondly, I said that if there was any notion of a buy out, that I would expect to own no less than 1 share of the purchasing company for every 2 shares I'd have to relinquish. End of Quote. Here is how I ended my letter: "My long-term investment in MannKind provided support for the company to arrive to this point in time and in return, you must offer new shares to me first OR let any potential buyer of the company know what I expect in terms of a share swap especially if I am to provide them with Afrezza and Technosphere not only gift-wrapped, but adorned with shiny purple ribbons and bows. For the record, have I made myself abundantly clear? I believe I have." So then, what is unclear about the fact that MannKind needs to offer the number of shares Mike presented at the quarterly? He MUST raise the money, pay off the debt owed in January and clear the slate for the next two years (24 months). There is no other way for him to succeed for MannKind or for us as shareholders. However, if they need to raise money then ask to be first in line to purchase more at a discount and at a ratio of 2:1. At least then, you'll share more equitably in any dilution instead of just being exposed to it. You may decide you don't want to purchase more shares and that's entirely up to you but the point is, ask and don't sit around feeling like you can't do something when you can.
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