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Post by pat on Nov 27, 2022 8:03:09 GMT -5
I think Mike is putting all of his hope and energy into the Pediatric Trial. He has 18-24 Months to get his ducks in a row to change the label, sign a partner and hit the ground running with the Kids. I believe he will use those 2 cartoon characters for branding. If they see them on packaging or in advertising it will make Afrezza more appealing to parents and their kids. MNKD will have more resources thanks to VGO, DPI and a new Clofazimine Partner so they can really make an investment in rolling out Afrezza for Kids. I think you are correct about the kids trial but I hope you are wrong. I hope he is also working a plan to leverage the $35 insulin cap in Medicare and talking daily with the CGM vendors on how afrezza can help sell their CGMs into the T2 market. I also hope he is actively talking with CMS so they gets things squared away with the Part D providers to make sure they all have afrezza as a "covered" drug so they do not need to go through a pre auth process. He also needs to leverage the ABC trial and do another trial with Ozempic and Mounjaro while defining "superiority" as post prandial control. Tell me how does MNKD have more resources thanks to VGO? I don’t think Mikes “hoping” for anything…I think Mike is pragmatically executing…and I also realize you’re not supposed to say things like that on this board filled with “true longs”.
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Post by pat on Nov 27, 2022 7:59:59 GMT -5
“as we accelerate past 5.21” I just hope that in fact happens, rather than us settling here in the 4s (i.e. still sub $1 pre RS). If we accelerate past $5.21 then i don’t much care what happens to the short position. 🙏🏽 🤔
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Post by pat on Nov 10, 2022 15:28:04 GMT -5
Where is that in explaining current and future cost of revenue for DPI? It could/should be a bottom line gold mine. UTHR's patients love DPI. Massive growth. I agree, T-DPI has a very bright future and we are only seeing the very tip of the iceberg. Dr. R is not in the habit of overhyping and setting the bar too high - she knows the price the company would pay for that. They see the trajectory and see the results that none of us are privilaged to see. If anybody thinks MNKD is going to have to take 10 years to recognize the differed 30mm that is on the books, I have a bridge up for sale. The fact that the inventory of DPI grew so significantly during Q3 tells me UT is placing its orders well in advance and they are much bigger than originally projected. Binder saying the differed revenue can be recognized over the life of the contract, is accurate, but it also gives them an ace in the hole to play when needed to hit revenue or cash flow targets. My other thoughts on the inventory build up - I am projecting the build up will continue going forward. UT is most likely providing a 12 to 18 month non-binding forecast to MNKD - boy would I like to get my hands on that report. Dr. C sees a time in the future when they might not be able to keep up with the production needs of UT (T-DPI growth, Afrezza's slow growth, MNKD 101 phase 2/3, PEDs coming on line in 2024), so he builds the inventory to protect against that moment while carefully expanding capability through better automation and physical expansion - some of which will be paid for by UT. Can't wait to continue seeing T-DPI's growth trajectory and to read about MNKD 101's preliminary findings and pre IND meeting with the FDA in late December. I am hoping MNKD 101 is the sleeper in the room that wakes up to slap the market in the face. Regarding expenses - I imagine the comment about high fixed cost and low marginal applies to DPI production as well. As DPI ramps up it should act to lower the per unit cost of everything manufactured in Danbury.
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Post by pat on Sept 19, 2022 10:20:36 GMT -5
Shaking the tree yet again….they keep doing it and I’m loading up on calls, although I swore I’d stop doing it. I've stopped doing it. Last batch I got were Jan '24 5.5 calls. Not holding my breath. I also have some Jan '23 5.5's. Holding less breath on those.... basically same. I’ve got a fairly large core position at about 2.50. But every time I try and employ some leverage with this thing I get burned.
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Post by pat on Sept 19, 2022 9:22:40 GMT -5
Shaking the tree yet again….they keep doing it and I’m loading up on calls, although I swore I’d stop doing it.
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Post by pat on Sept 7, 2022 19:56:44 GMT -5
Where did all the texts from earlier go?
So much for a healthy dialogue I guess.
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Post by pat on Sept 4, 2022 7:43:47 GMT -5
We are in a bear market….the stocks that can keep their heads above water will lead the way into ( fingers crossed) a new bull market next year. how will the repo market fare with the QE roll off?
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Post by pat on Sept 3, 2022 6:39:37 GMT -5
july 25 at 2:43pm. “…not easy admitting LFD was right”. You’ve repeatedly written that. I don’t have the patience to pull each instance. LFD has been incredibly critical of MNKD and technosphere. I have always suspected your motives and continue to. Thanks for confirming my memory on this was accurate. You’re welcome. Just helping out a “fellow long”.
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Post by pat on Sept 2, 2022 5:51:59 GMT -5
arent you the one who said LFD is usually right and wasn’t it LFD who has been pro LQDA and trashes MNKD? I don’t recall ever saying “LFD is usually right” and don’t think I’ve ever said or written that. And I’ve never read a LFD article about LQDA so have no idea what he thinks about that stock, nor do I care. (I’ve only read LFD’s articles about MNKD and of course lots of what he posts is accurate, because he regurgitates plenty of facts that are reported by MNKD itself. That’s part of what makes LFD’s articles so painful to read, the other part is how one-sided and over the top they are.) You might be confused because I’ve posted that Spencer Osbourne has been proven accurate on many things regarding MNKD. I have posted about hating on his articles for a long time, until finally seeing him be right (and me wrong) so often that I had to admit it. july 25 at 2:43pm. “…not easy admitting LFD was right”. You’ve repeatedly written that. I don’t have the patience to pull each instance. LFD has been incredibly critical of MNKD and technosphere. I have always suspected your motives and continue to.
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Post by pat on Sept 1, 2022 16:57:07 GMT -5
UTHR continues to impress, it is a well run company. I don’t expect them to buy out LQDA, but if they do then it’ll probably be the right move. And I’d be admittedly a bit envious if it happens, would rather see them buy MNKD, even though it would be a much lower number than we all used to envision. Interesting to see the share price action of UTHR, LQDA and MNKD starting about 2:30 today. arent you the one who said LFD is usually right and wasn’t it LFD who has been pro LQDA and trashes MNKD?
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Post by pat on Aug 26, 2022 15:45:15 GMT -5
Are you also glad we missed the entire bull market run? As gorman would say, don’t you remember the world’s biggest pandemic in a century? We are lucky not to be in bankruptcy because of that. Not to mention the manipulation by nefarious shorts in our midst right here on ProBoards. But thanks to the genius and herculean efforts of our management team that gets paid a mere pittance, Afrezza scripts are skyrocketing a full 14% higher than three years ago and our shares are comfortably above $3. We are impervious to bull market runs! such a clever monkey
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Post by pat on Jul 30, 2022 9:03:22 GMT -5
I'm not an accountant or CFO, but I assumed all of the deferred revenue could be accrued as soon as MNKD wanted to. I also assumed they did not accrue the revenue because of uncertainty with the pending FDA approval. I don't know that MNKD would have been required to give the money back to UTHR, but I speculate there would have been hits from a failure to get FDA approval that would largely nullify the accrual. Regardless, the accruals are non-cash transactions (because the money was already paid and wasn't held in escrow), so even if accruals make the earnings report look great on paper, I have to assume those values are "baked in" as some board posters like to say.
Where things should hopefully be fun and not ho-hum is this time next year. I expect UTHR to hit guidance they gave before Tyvaso was approved for ILD and IIRC it was north of $1B. Manufacturing +, "low double digit" royalties, plus Affreza (and V-Go?) should make for a tasty quarter (next year). I don't expect the stock to be selling for $3.50 at that point. I'm not an accountant either, just a pain in their arses with an MBA. I believe the deferred manufacturing revenue would show up on the balance sheet as an asset, but not be recognized or have impact upon the P&L for Q1, with the notable exception of cost incurred to manufacture the goods. So, in Q2, we will see some, a bunch, all of the deferred revenue, but less impact on costs, as some were previously paid. It all depends on how much inventory UTHR wanted to take on hand at launch. I'll take a closer look at the Q1 reports and see if I can suss out how the launch product, costs and revenues we're treated. Deferred revenue is a liability. Taken to the income statement when recognized.
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Post by pat on May 29, 2022 8:12:27 GMT -5
“Anticipation among shareholders” is a key point I think. I am not directly involved in the investment decision making process. But I’m fairly certain there is no way most large institutional managers - be it insurance companies, pensions, mutual fund managers - will take a position of any size in a company with no earnings and negative cash flow. The Cathy woods of the world being an exception. This has been the MNKD reality these past years and why we’ve been so heavily manipulated. The proven royalties from tyvasso over the next year should open MNKD investment up to a much larger pool of capital from large managers. They will want the growth that monetizing the techno sphere platform will bring in the years ahead. So, some portion of that future growth will be priced in to the stock in the near term when they bid the company up in the coming months, along with the increasing royalty stream. Just a thought anyway….
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Post by pat on May 29, 2022 7:41:04 GMT -5
SA is a rag which is why I stopped reading the “articles” from pseudo-wannabe-journalists pushing click-bait. They’re not the only place that uses posts to draw eyes to see the advertisements in the verge which pay for the place to play. Anyway, I wonder if the “analysts” are the same folks that predicted Liquidia could take “up to 10%” of the market away from Tyvaso DPI? Agreed. I used to browse through it on occasion when it was kind of new years ago. But struck me as having zero editorial control of any kind. Like a lot of social media I guess. As a result, a lot of half baked writing being passed off as insightful truths. This headline strikes me as a ‘fringey’ Wall Street story line that Liquidia isn’t dead yet! Just a matter of months…they’ll be back on top. You do not want to miss this opportunity.
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Post by pat on May 28, 2022 14:56:41 GMT -5
Absent an improvement in the sales of afrezza, a huge wildcard, seems like it’s just chopping wood putting existing medications onto the techno sphere platform for the next 10+ years. The cost to manufacture the meds and the powder is probably de minimus in most cases. So the limiting factor would seem to be the money and time to clear each new molecule through the FDA. Each new molecule will be incremental to the bottom line. This one is 100mm or thereabouts. Could we get to 5B in 10 years that would drive a 100B market cap? Seems doable.
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