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Post by _neil on May 9, 2016 17:50:04 GMT -5
What institution in their right mind will buy this offer? They are insane to even put it out there. $0.75 is too rich for this cluster*&*&
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Post by _neil on May 9, 2016 17:39:39 GMT -5
I think it's time people dropped the 'Matt is a good guy but'. The whole tone of good things right around the corner should prove at least by now that he's neither competent nor honest. There's nothing to show behind all the words and I've run out of rope to hand him. The company's rotten to the core. I know some people here genuinely care about PWD. Bankruptcy and then handing over the patents to someone more capable (which, it looks like anyone in the world except the current team at this point) would be the best course of action. Enough well meaning people lost enough money. At least some good can come off it if they just made sure the biggest money loser (Al) can have his legacy preserved by helping the people who have a genuine medical need.
Before anyone starts whining about my whining, I'd ask you to answer why you guys trust this team when they repeatedly kick the can down the road. Bad news is OK but dangling false carrots of hope quarter after quarter is definitely not. Their negotiations take eons. They try to pass off all sorts of shelf registrations as just good housekeeping policies. I am sure they'll turn around and dilute the heck out of this company. If the strength of Afrezza got the company to a market cap in the hundreds of Millions, the weakness of the management team should drag it down to tens of millions. I can't accuse them of outright falsehood because they are skilled at using weasel words but it's clear to me they lack any
integrity.
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Post by _neil on May 9, 2016 17:06:47 GMT -5
There should be a drinking game. Every time a MNKD officer opens his trap and says 'hopeful' you down a shot. Two for 'at this time'. I'd die by the end of it. These people are more actors than business leaders at this point.
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Post by _neil on May 4, 2016 12:57:10 GMT -5
Any thoughts on Oramed's oral insulin pill? Results to be published soon (weeks?). If they show promising results, that would be a far bigger challenge to status quo than MNKD ever promised to be. Afrezza might still have an advantage in being monomer insulin but it might be addressing a far smaller market if Oramed is able to crack this challenge.
One binary event after another.. biotech is a far harder investing arena than I ever imagined it would be.
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Post by _neil on Apr 28, 2016 22:00:53 GMT -5
Just offering my opinions same as everyone else, greg..
I'm grateful I don't need your approval to post. Cheers and good luck!
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Post by _neil on Apr 28, 2016 18:40:17 GMT -5
Sometimes what's visible is the whole truth. There are no takers for Afrezza because it wasn't a big problem to shoot up insulin with a pen. Hindsight is 20/20 but for the hurdles that patients and prescribers have to go through for Afrezza, the benefits are not worthwhile. Yes, the reduced b1ac is great but we as longs are have to take off the twitter goggles and ask if there's a statistical significance in the reproducibility of results (If you are convinced otherwise, good for you- a big red number in my portfolio tells me I've been duped) . The sharp fall in refill rates tells me that the drug is an overwhelming 'meh'. The non-inferior product will have non-inferior results. MNKD should get real and price it like the non-inferior product that it is.
My prediction is that we will see a PPS of 0.70-0.80 by May 15.
Also, no viable candidate for TS in the decade of MNKD's existence should also be a big red flag. The company can tout having 'several' conversations with partners or several other drug candidates but truth is, they have nothing. And I would do what they are doing too.. show a brave face and live to fight another day. If I am being paid hundreds of thousands to try, why not hang on? After Mann, it's not like any execs are putting their personal wealth into the company.
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Post by _neil on Apr 28, 2016 10:28:34 GMT -5
nylefty- That is good information. They do have an incentive then to not just lower the price on the ticket but do it through a carefully orchestrated discount program so they get maximum revenue from Health Canada. I don't know if PMPRB is that easy to fool but that could be a reason for MNKD not being upfront about saying they will lower the price. (I am feeling generous today.. normally I would accuse them of not having the foresight or the smarts to pull off anything to add revenue)
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Post by _neil on Apr 25, 2016 18:19:22 GMT -5
I know there are a lot of people who have held on to MNKD way longer than I did and are invested way more than I ever was. Bear with my pessimism but these job postings do no inspire any hope in me. Dilution is imminent and people will take up a job if they are compensated enough with stock options. Even at 50% of today's PPS, if someone is getting a million options with a potential upside several times that amount, it seems like an acceptable risk (at least to me).
I don't think reading too much into the stability of the company just because they are hiring people is wise.
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Post by _neil on Apr 19, 2016 14:51:29 GMT -5
This is just unreal. Has anyone been involved in a stock that's more dramatic than this?
At this point Mannkind is not a biotech company. It's an ultra-dramatic 14 year old with all the confusion and insecurity it implies.
I hope Matt gets back to his health soon. If this leads to another CEO shuffle, I wonder how many more twists and turns this tale will take.
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Post by _neil on Apr 19, 2016 10:48:36 GMT -5
I have a feeling they will evade the cash situation today. Something tells me that in their mind, the shelf offering is all the answer they are required to give. Dilute to execute I suppose
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Post by _neil on Apr 7, 2016 12:42:55 GMT -5
I'm in the camp of "bankruptcy is imminent". My biggest red flag is the continuing drop in refill rate. What are you talking about? I recently said in another thread that I was encouraged that the refill rate had NOT dropped off. Look at the Symphony chart. The total number of refills in the four weeks reported in March was 20 percent HIGHER than it was six months earlier, in the four weeks reported in September! mnkd.proboards.com/attachment/download/1795My apologies.. I went by the data LfD presented in SeekingAlpha. It does seem like he's cherrypicking his data as usual but even objectively, the prescription rates do not look like they bode well. |
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Post by _neil on Apr 7, 2016 12:40:48 GMT -5
Lets not speculate about what MNKD wants to do. The whole altruistic motives for MNKD or Al's actions (about how MNKD wants to _help_ as many patients as possible) is really unprovable. We may wish someone of Mr.Hanks's nature to endorse Afrezza but it won't happen. That costs money. Enough money that MNKD may just survive for an extra couple months to twiddle their thumbs as usual.
What's required first and foremost right now is MNKD to articulate a strategy for keeping the lights on through 2016. Celebrity endorsements, TV ads, marketing pushes are all pipe dreams with the cash position right now.
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Post by _neil on Apr 5, 2016 15:25:09 GMT -5
I'm in the camp of "bankruptcy is imminent".
My biggest red flag is the continuing drop in refill rate. Outside of the sandbox of Afrezza fans that led me to believe this drug is effective, the general population in the open market seems uninterested in going back for their refills.
I can buy the reasons of the new prescriptions not picking up speed (SNY sandbagging, ineffective campaign etc.) but how come the people on the A train already are dropping off?
Before anyone says price and the sunset of SNY discounts, I am sure if the drug was as good as I thought it was (emphasis on myself- no one held a gun to my head) I would assume the total prescriptions won't drop off this bad.
I liquidated ~90% of my position when I was pissed at the management but now I believe it wasn't the companies (SNY or MNKD) that killed Afrezza but the drug itself is, even in the best case, deservedly non-inferior. I wish it wasn't so damn expensive to short the company.
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Post by _neil on Mar 17, 2016 14:43:19 GMT -5
Am I right in reading this as MNKD has the runway extended to the end of 2017 with Sanofi Loan facility under the current cash burn rate?
This could be the reason for the recent uptick.
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Post by _neil on Feb 26, 2016 13:27:18 GMT -5
No matter how we view MNKD as an investment, it's irrefutable that the world lost a giant of a human being. His achievements are many and profound and it's terrible that he passed away without getting the rest that he so well deserved.
I am not a religious person but if there is a heaven, we all know one person that deservedly belongs there.
RIP, Mr.Mann
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