Ok back to basics... So today is 07.24.18 and the 2nd Q call should be either around 08.08 or 08.15... Original premise of this thread was that likely no news until then but now we are 2 to 3 weeks away. So what might be possible between now and then? Or for that matter what might we expect to hear on the call regarding between now and the end of the year? (Next six months?)
First as we all know, we need money by end of September at latest by my guess, but earlier is better for a variety of reasons, including declining stock price.
Question is how much will mnkd raise and on what terms? Does mnkd go for, as SO likes to put it, another "payday loan," of 3 to 4 months or does mnkd go for 12 to 18 months? Imho, likley the former rather than the latter as company pps not valued high enough and so would require way too much dilution at this point, (although having enough money for 12 to 18 months might take the sting out of the dilution to some degree). The x factor is, it could be non-dilutive financing from Deerfield or another lender with due dates pushed out for 3 to 5 years. Or it could even be a partner but imo not likely as company would have to give up too much equity at this point. But then again maybe the lender also gets equity for favorable lending terms... Hmm...
So dilution is the main boogey man at this point... And to some degree it has been factored in, but lest we forget this is mnkd the other shoe is yet to drop...
Second, now for the more positive:
1. Better Scripts: 650 by the 2nd Q call?
2. Term Sheet(s): One or two? China, Canada, Mexico anyone?
3. Publications in NEJM, JAMA?
4. Trep T: Start of Phase 3? Partner?
5. Brazil/Biomm: Early approval of Brazil? $5 Bulk Shipment in 4th Q?
6. 900 to 1,000 scripts a week by 12.31.18?
7. Status of pediatrics study
Third, the missing in action:
1. Better Insurance Coverage, whatever happened to this discussion?
2. RLS
3. One Drop Partnership: Monthly cash fee for scripts at discount as I recall...
4. Pipeline developments for another API from the 40 or so identified as worth considering
5. Marketing campaign: Not on for very long... Know it costs money. When will it return and how will they sustain it?
What have I missed? What, if any of the above, can lift the pps and sustain the lift?
(All of the above is pure speculation to stimulate educated thought and reflects only my own opinions and thoughts)