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Post by mannmade on Jul 18, 2018 10:01:31 GMT -5
Am guessing 2nd Q call will be around 08.15.18, in about 3 weeks. Imho we may not hear much until then. However by my estimate mnkd has enough money to get thru end of Sept (not including DF) so Mike will likely let us know his plan at that point.
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Post by lakers on Jul 18, 2018 12:21:31 GMT -5
It should be announced shortly. It could shed some lights on some FAQs such as:
What publication and when will the STAT result be published?
Where and when will be the next international expansion ? Why didn’t we expand in Canada, Mexico due to no NAFTA tariff?
MENA, China expansion have been often bandied about. When will that happen?
Any update on improved coverage?
Is TV Ads still going considering the cash crunch?
Any near term cash infusion from potential partners?
When will phase one pediatric trial complete ?
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Post by harryx1 on Jul 18, 2018 13:03:54 GMT -5
We should still be on target for Mike's guidance of $28-30M for FY18 since revs have already equaled FY17s...and should come close or beat Snakeofi's total Rx for FY15 that had a much, much larger sales force.  |
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Post by compound26 on Jul 18, 2018 13:09:30 GMT -5
We should still be on target for Mike's guidance of $28-30M for FY18 since revs have already equaled FY17s...and should come close or beat Snakeofi's total Rx for FY15 that had a much, much larger sales force. A picture is worth a thousand words!  To put things in perspective, Dexcom first received FDA approval for its first generation CGM in 2006 and it did not earn any profit until this year (2018). It took 12 years for Dexcom to earn any profit. Mannkind received approval for Afrezza in 2014. Can Mannkind be profitable in 12 years after approval of Afrezza (i.e., by 2026)? I have full confidence Mike, Dave and the gang will beat that timeline handsomely. |
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Post by cjm18 on Jul 18, 2018 13:18:52 GMT -5
Those sales figures are not net sales. Guidance is 25-30 net.
2h 2017 net afrezza sales were 6.4m including the 1.4m favorable adjustment.
We need a huge jump in sales to meet guidance.
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Post by harryx1 on Jul 18, 2018 13:35:10 GMT -5
Ok, those numbers are from Symphony (estimated) and are gross sales. FY17 was ~$11.9M net. I don't remember Mike stating net guidance but you're probably right.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 18, 2018 13:39:44 GMT -5
We should still be on target for Mike's guidance of $28-30M for FY18 since revs have already equaled FY17s...and should come close or beat Snakeofi's total Rx for FY15 that had a much, much larger sales force. Mike narrowed his guidance to $25M - $28M. $30M is Off The Table. |
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Post by awesomo on Jul 18, 2018 13:41:16 GMT -5
Ok, those numbers are from Symphony (estimated) and are gross sales. FY17 was ~$11.9M net. I don't remember Mike stating net guidance but you're probably right. Given that, we're on pace for roughly $20-22M in net revenue if the percentages of net/gross stay consistent this year. We would need to have around $22 million in gross sales for the rest of the year to hit the lower end of the yearly guidance. |
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Post by mannmade on Jul 18, 2018 13:49:21 GMT -5
Add $2m from India and another $2m to $3m from next term sheet (China anyone?) and voila we make guidance. Don’t recall mike staying all revenue was related to us script sales only but could be wrong.
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Post by compound26 on Jul 18, 2018 13:59:31 GMT -5
Add $2m from India and another $2m to $3m from next term sheet (China anyone?) and voila we make guidance. Don’t recall mike staying all revenue was related to us script sales only but could be wrong. Agree. But I think it is more likely via a bulk shipment to Brazil as revenue recognition is tied to shipment of Afrezza. I think Mike can probably expect a shipment of around $5-6 million to Brazil if needed to enable Mannkind to make guidance. This is similar to what Mannkind did in terms of meeting the guidance of 2nd half of 2017. I think this is all fine as long as it is within the accounting rules. To me, the more important part is the upward trend and momentum. As long as we keep growing, we will do fine. Additionally, as sales grow and international expansion kicks in, the margin will keep improving, which will another driver for meeting the guidance. Think about it, had Mannkind management started doing what Mike and Dave are doing (STAT trials, international partnership, dusting off old trials, getting publications, fixing package, better understanding of dosing and titration, etc.) from 2015, then we would be in much better position right now. Had Mannkind management raised a couple of hundred of millions in 2014/2015, we would also in much better position. However, all in all, we are in a much better position than 2016 and 2017 at this moment. |
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Post by markado on Jul 18, 2018 14:00:39 GMT -5
Mannmade, I feel like the next term sheet will be China, as well. I think Amphastar's opportunity for first right of refusal has come into play, and the delay in announcement is due to the time clauses therein being honored. That's just a feeling and an educated guess. We'll see if I've/we've guessed correctly.
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Post by casualinvestor on Jul 18, 2018 14:31:16 GMT -5
2018 Q2 Symphony sales were roughly $8.4M. So, looking at recent monthly growth rates (13.4% growth from April to May, and 8.4% from May to June), we can do some estimate math and say a 30% Q over Q growth rate is a good ballpark for gross sales. That also happens to be the growth rate from Q1 to Q2. That plays out through the end of the year like this:
2018 Q1 - $6.5M
2018 Q2 - $8.4M
2018 Q3 - $10.9M
2018 Q4 - $14.2M
Total: $40M gross sales 2018. Not a great amount, when trying to hit a target of $25-$28M net. But pretty awesome when compared to $15.1M from the previous year.
If slightly better sales traction happens to bump us over 30% Q over Q (from STAT/advertising/coverage/whatever), it might come too late to have a significant impact getting to the net sales target for the year, but equaling last year's sales in Q4 of this year would be pretty nice to see.
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Post by peppy on Jul 18, 2018 14:35:23 GMT -5
2018 Q2 Symphony sales were roughly $8.4M. So, looking at recent monthly growth rates (13.4% growth from April to May, and 8.4% from May to June), we can do some estimate math and say a 30% Q over Q growth rate is a good ballpark for gross sales. That also happens to be the growth rate from Q1 to Q2. That plays out through the end of the year like this: 2018 Q1 - $6.5M 2018 Q2 - $8.4M 2018 Q3 - $10.9M 2018 Q4 - $14.2M Total: $40M gross sales 2018. Not a great amount, when trying to hit a target of $25-$28M net. But pretty awesome when compared to $15.1M from the previous year. If slightly better sales traction happens to bump us over 30% Q over Q (from STAT/advertising/coverage/whatever), it might come too late to have a significant impact getting to the net sales target for the year, but equaling last year's sales in Q4 of this year would be pretty nice to see. I like hear from you when you take out the pencil and paper. thank you. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 18, 2018 15:06:45 GMT -5
We should still be on target for Mike's guidance of $28-30M for FY18 since revs have already equaled FY17s...and should come close or beat Snakeofi's total Rx for FY15 that had a much, much larger sales force. Your chart should be altered. FY18 should be YTD18 |
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Post by compound26 on Jul 18, 2018 15:31:18 GMT -5
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