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Post by agedhippie on Jul 30, 2018 10:51:07 GMT -5
Upon reading your post, AgedOne, I could only think of the following: To be, or not to be: that is the question: Whether 'tis nobler in the mind to suffer The slings and arrows of outrageous fortune, Or to take arms against a sea of troubles, And by opposing end them? To die: to sleep; No more; and by a sleep to say we end The heart-ache and the thousand natural shocks That flesh is heir to, 'tis a consummation Devoutly to be wish'd. To die, to sleep; To sleep: perchance to dream: ay, there's the rub; For in that sleep of death what dreams may come When we have shuffled off this mortal coil, Must give us pause: there's the respect That makes calamity of so long life; My favorite soliloquy. Also the shareholders lament: For mine own good, All causes shall give way. I am in blood Stepped in so far that, should I wade no more, Returning were as tedious as go o'er. |
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Post by mnholdem on Jul 30, 2018 11:30:17 GMT -5
The Carlyle Group are PE so if they get involved in Mannkind that would pretty much be the end. They would want the whole company, and cheaply because there is no cash and they cannot load it up with debt. Their exit would have to be either turning the company around, or breaking it up and selling of the parts. They are unlikely to see the ROI in attempting to turn it around given where sales are three years after launch, and their BP contacts are unlikely to say good things. I believe you're spot on in that assessment. Over the weekend I did a little more digging into the newly-formed Phoenix Therapeutics company involving Bourne Partners & Carlyle, thinking there may be a connection since Bourne Partners formed the Tanner Group.
Jan 2016 NEW YORK, NY and CHARLOTTE, NC – Global alternative asset manager The Carlyle Group (NASDAQ: CG) announced today that it has formed a joint venture with Bourne Partners, a healthcare-focused investor, operator and investment banking firm, to build a global pharmaceutical platform. This new venture, known as Phoenix Therapeutics, will be owned by Carlyle Partners VI, a $13 billion U.S. buyout fund, with a minority investment from Bourne Partners. Leveraging the financial resources and experience of Carlyle and Bourne, Phoenix Therapeutics will look to operate a pharmaceutical platform built through acquisitions. Phoenix Therapeutics will consider a range of acquisitions, including product and asset acquisitions, corporate acquisitions and carve-outs.
Carlyle Partners VI
United States
Asset Class
U.S. Buyout
Launched in 2013 at $13.0 billion, this fund conducts leveraged buyout transactions in North America in targeted industries.
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I haven't seen any further news whatsoever about Phoenix Therapeutics since this Jan-2016 press release so I no longer think that there is any connection with Carlyle related to the MannKind-Tanner Group agreement even though I thought it was worth exploring.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 30, 2018 12:15:07 GMT -5
The Carlyle Group are PE so if they get involved in Mannkind that would pretty much be the end. They would want the whole company, and cheaply because there is no cash and they cannot load it up with debt. Their exit would have to be either turning the company around, or breaking it up and selling of the parts. They are unlikely to see the ROI in attempting to turn it around given where sales are three years after launch, and their BP contacts are unlikely to say good things. Current market cap is $205 mm. Any chance it gets taken private? |
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Post by babaoriley on Jul 30, 2018 13:05:43 GMT -5
Similar chance to a third party buyout. They need a source of funds. That source has to have faith in the long term success of Afrezza and/or Technosphere. If such a source is out there, it would be nice to be along for the ride, but that may not be in the cards. Who the F knows, really.
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Post by mnkdfann on Jul 30, 2018 13:32:24 GMT -5
Similar chance to a third party buyout. They need a source of funds. That source has to have faith in the long term success of Afrezza and/or Technosphere. If such a source is out there, it would be nice to be along for the ride, but that may not be in the cards. Who the F knows, really. It may or may not be nice to be along for the ride. Buyouts are not always nice for the investors. I personally doubt that a buyout here would be very positive. |
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Post by otherottawaguy on Jul 30, 2018 13:36:49 GMT -5
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Post by matt on Jul 30, 2018 13:48:54 GMT -5
Current market cap is $205 mm. Any chance it gets taken private? Current market cap is $205 MM, but the cost to buy the company would be closer to $500 MM. Whenever there is a large change in control, it normally triggers a requirement to either obtain lender consent or to pay off the debt. Given how aggressive DF has been is pushing for a shorter duration on their payments, I would not expect them to agree to an equity acquisition without triggering the acceleration clause. The outstanding liabilities as of the last 10Q were about $300 MM, which are now reduced slightly by the DF conversions, but increased by cash usage (about a wash just eyeballing it). It will be hard to find a buyer willing to write a check that large, perhaps not impossible, but not very likely either. |
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Post by tingtongtung on Jul 30, 2018 13:49:15 GMT -5
It's just depressing.. May be Mike didn't find any other better way of raising cash? Weekly sales have been increasing, more money coming in, but it's just not enough. Sanofi deal screwed MNKD really really bad. This increasing scripts should have happened in year 1, not now. Unless MNKD can raise cash (whatever the dilution may be), it is impossible to survive. There is always the case of starting from scratch - but no one (especially us) wants it. So, going private will give us at least peanuts if not nothing, and Mike prefers that? I really don't know what to make of this everyday suspense! Going private is almost never a good deal for investors - especially at this time. MNKD is not on a firm ground, so it has to yield to whatever PE firms demand. BTW, I'm long and have a ton of shares, and want MNKD/Afrezza to go past this and succeed. |
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Post by mytakeonit on Jul 30, 2018 13:55:37 GMT -5
I'm glad for that tingtong ... so, do you think the shorts on this board are so short that they can't see the billboard behind the fence? The billboard says ... Conference Call on Aug. 2nd !!!
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Post by tingtongtung on Jul 30, 2018 14:02:54 GMT -5
I'm glad for that tingtong ... so, do you think the shorts on this board are so short that they can't see the billboard behind the fence? The billboard says ... Conference Call on Aug. 2nd !!! No idea what you are glad about my post.. I'm an engineer and I'm pretty good at what I do, but admit that I'm not smart enough to think of ways of raising cash or this weird convoluted game! I think logically, which doesn't make much sense in this scenario! I'm actually scared of CCs (TBH, all CC of MNKD from the very beginning) :-) |
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Post by casualinvestor on Jul 30, 2018 14:17:25 GMT -5
This makes me wonder if there may be non-dilutive financing over the horizon since there may be a vested interest in this Tanner deal becoming lucrative by helping MannKind fund its business plan. No one else see this potential? Can someone explain how Nate see a 300bagger? I recall you multiply 300 times your investment. Do I have the correct? Even w possible df, banks, and others financing ... 300x??? How Please discuss and happy wing day happy lasagna day and happy lipstick day At the risk of pie-in-the-sky'ing, it's possible if Afrezza captures a significant % of the market. Consider OOG documented weekly sales from April of these products: Afrezza----448 $549k 244 $298k Apidra----6413 $4.80m 2297 $1.79m Novalog--135k $128m 60.2k $56.1m Humalog-151k $138m 56.0k $57.3m Humalin--37.4k $20.3m 14.9k $8.1m It's probably over $200M in gross weekly sales for all these items by now. At 10% of the market, 20M/week, we're talking $1 billion dollars in gross annual sales for Afrezza. Not enough for a 300 or 100 bagger, but well on it's way. And more importantly, plenty of cash to work on other Technosphere delivered drugs. Those would be needed to take it the rest of the way. |
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Post by mnkdfann on Jul 30, 2018 14:49:36 GMT -5
At the risk of pie-in-the-sky'ing, it's possible if Afrezza captures a significant % of the market. Consider OOG documented weekly sales from April of these products: Afrezza----448 $549k 244 $298k Apidra----6413 $4.80m 2297 $1.79m Novalog--135k $128m 60.2k $56.1m Humalog-151k $138m 56.0k $57.3m Humalin--37.4k $20.3m 14.9k $8.1m It's probably over $200M in gross weekly sales for all these items by now. At 10% of the market, 20M/week, we're talking $1 billion dollars in gross annual sales for Afrezza. Not enough for a 300 or 100 bagger, but well on it's way. And more importantly, plenty of cash to work on other Technosphere delivered drugs. Those would be needed to take it the rest of the way. In these comparisons, we have to keep in mind that Mannkind is still a one drug pony. Not so for the pharmas manufacturing those other drugs. Sanofi has a market cap of $108B with annual sales of about $36B (according to various web sources). Novo has a market cap of $122B with annual sales of about $111B. So if we use some similar multiples, and imagine Mannkind has $1B in annual sales down the road, maybe that gives MNKD a market cap of $1B to $3B? Leading to a 5 to 15 bagger from where we are at now? After sales increase 40 times from where they are now. If I've made a non-trivial significant mistake with the numbers, please do correct me. |
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Post by figglebird on Jul 30, 2018 14:52:12 GMT -5
As a share holder I would obviously prefer this perspective to the doom/gloom fabrication that extinction is always around the corner. But, the truth has always been somewhere in the middle and would most likely come down to the macro equation that continues to play out.
Rate of dilution/funding vs cost of eventual penetration or proof of concept
ROD/f v COEP
embedded within coep is/was cost of bringing drug to market which obviously made up the lions share of dilutive funding thus far...
but the equation remains in tact... the edge shareholders have is the unshaded intrinsic value that might otherwise be compromised if the company were not an aspiring hybrid pharmaceutical.... I believe Al Mann's playbook speaks to this.
penetration is likelier to happen by all accounts...
biggest threat remains a catastrophic safety issue that has yet to emerge - or undisclosed debt financing language that devalues assets enough to infringe upon intrinsic valuation.
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Post by babaoriley on Jul 30, 2018 15:01:59 GMT -5
Similar chance to a third party buyout. They need a source of funds. That source has to have faith in the long term success of Afrezza and/or Technosphere. If such a source is out there, it would be nice to be along for the ride, but that may not be in the cards. Who the F knows, really. It may or may not be nice to be along for the ride. Buyouts are not always nice for the investors. I personally doubt that a buyout here would be very positive. All depends on one's expectations. |
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Post by mytakeonit on Jul 30, 2018 15:47:08 GMT -5
Buyouts ... 300 bagger ... all this talk is going extreme. All I want is enough money so I can buy a new tent with a welcome mat ... so I can continue living on Diamond Head. THEN, maybe sports, peppy, sla, liane, etc ... might come and visit me.
Yes sports ... I am rich in my own world. If you look at the August 2018 issue of Honolulu Magazine ... page 104/105 shows a vog cover over the "cheap" side of Diamond Head. If you look really closely, you can see where I live. BTW, the vog is due to the Kilauea eruptions and depends on the wind direction. You know, like share prices. It all depends on which way the wind is blowing.
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