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Post by mytakeonit on Jul 31, 2018 0:34:41 GMT -5
BTW, the Aug. issue of Honolulu Magazine isn't on the web yet ... ahhh ... because it is still July !!! Anyway, if you do view that Diamond Head pic of the "cheap" side of DH ... that should be the more expensive side of DH. Why? Sure you don't have the picturesque views from the ocean side of DH ... BUT, when the hurricane season comes ... you are protected on the "cheap" side. I've been in category 5 hurricanes and can walk out side like it is a regular day. I'll see a few blocks away and the wind is churning it all up. When the breeze starts ... then you go back into your ahhh ... tent and feel secure. The wind wrap starts as it passes DH ... but, it isn't bad. Just a hint if you are in the market to buy real estate in Hawaii. Send your $20 to mytakeonit.com for my news letter.
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Post by golfeveryday on Jul 31, 2018 5:44:55 GMT -5
At the risk of pie-in-the-sky'ing, it's possible if Afrezza captures a significant % of the market. Consider OOG documented weekly sales from April of these products: Afrezza----448 $549k 244 $298k Apidra----6413 $4.80m 2297 $1.79m Novalog--135k $128m 60.2k $56.1m Humalog-151k $138m 56.0k $57.3m Humalin--37.4k $20.3m 14.9k $8.1m It's probably over $200M in gross weekly sales for all these items by now. At 10% of the market, 20M/week, we're talking $1 billion dollars in gross annual sales for Afrezza. Not enough for a 300 or 100 bagger, but well on it's way. And more importantly, plenty of cash to work on other Technosphere delivered drugs. Those would be needed to take it the rest of the way. In these comparisons, we have to keep in mind that Mannkind is still a one drug pony. Not so for the pharmas manufacturing those other drugs. Sanofi has a market cap of $108B with annual sales of about $36B (according to various web sources). Novo has a market cap of $122B with annual sales of about $111B. So if we use some similar multiples, and imagine Mannkind has $1B in annual sales down the road, maybe that gives MNKD a market cap of $1B to $3B? Leading to a 5 to 15 bagger from where we are at now? After sales increase 40 times from where they are now. If I've made a non-trivial significant mistake with the numbers, please do correct me. DXCM is valued at 10x sales right now. |
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Post by sportsrancho on Jul 31, 2018 6:49:58 GMT -5
I believe, correct me if I’m wrong that growing bio’s are valued at 10 to 15 times earnings. SNY is no longer a growth stock, they pay a dividend, so you can’t compare the two.
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Post by gareaudan on Jul 31, 2018 7:11:06 GMT -5
At the risk of pie-in-the-sky'ing, it's possible if Afrezza captures a significant % of the market. Consider OOG documented weekly sales from April of these products: Afrezza----448 $549k 244 $298k Apidra----6413 $4.80m 2297 $1.79m Novalog--135k $128m 60.2k $56.1m Humalog-151k $138m 56.0k $57.3m Humalin--37.4k $20.3m 14.9k $8.1m It's probably over $200M in gross weekly sales for all these items by now. At 10% of the market, 20M/week, we're talking $1 billion dollars in gross annual sales for Afrezza. Not enough for a 300 or 100 bagger, but well on it's way. And more importantly, plenty of cash to work on other Technosphere delivered drugs. Those would be needed to take it the rest of the way. In these comparisons, we have to keep in mind that Mannkind is still a one drug pony. Not so for the pharmas manufacturing those other drugs. Sanofi has a market cap of $108B with annual sales of about $36B (according to various web sources). Novo has a market cap of $122B with annual sales of about $111B. So if we use some similar multiples, and imagine Mannkind has $1B in annual sales down the road, maybe that gives MNKD a market cap of $1B to $3B? Leading to a 5 to 15 bagger from where we are at now? After sales increase 40 times from where they are now. If I've made a non-trivial significant mistake with the numbers, please do correct me. how Much sale did Juno and Kite had before their buyout for 9b and 12b. I thought they didnt even have a product approuved by the fda. Mmmm, I dont know, maybe sometime it is the potential futur sales that is being considered. For now the market act like mnkd will never be able to have more futur sales. But what if afrezza start to sell and prove that all the other products that will get out of technosphere are safe, easier to use, faster and at least non inferior to their competitor...mmm what will happen then...we'll see. |
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Post by mnholdem on Jul 31, 2018 9:24:43 GMT -5
Excellent point about market sentiment.
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Post by morgieporgie on Jul 31, 2018 9:31:59 GMT -5
In these comparisons, we have to keep in mind that Mannkind is still a one drug pony. Not so for the pharmas manufacturing those other drugs. Sanofi has a market cap of $108B with annual sales of about $36B (according to various web sources). Novo has a market cap of $122B with annual sales of about $111B. So if we use some similar multiples, and imagine Mannkind has $1B in annual sales down the road, maybe that gives MNKD a market cap of $1B to $3B? Leading to a 5 to 15 bagger from where we are at now? After sales increase 40 times from where they are now. If I've made a non-trivial significant mistake with the numbers, please do correct me. how Much sale did Juno and Kite had before their buyout for 9b and 12b. I thought they didnt even have a product approuved by the fda. Mmmm, I dont know, maybe sometime it is the potential futur sales that is being considered. For now the market act like mnkd will never be able to have more futur sales. But what if afrezza start to sell and prove that all the other products that will get out of technosphere are safe, easier to use, faster and at least non inferior to their competitor...mmm what will happen then...we'll see. This is accurate in my opinion. What would be the going price of a mealtime insulin that is as good as (non-inferior) or better (superior) than what's out there now? Every week the scripts rise, the more heat on the outdated insulin makers. It will only get worse. |
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Post by gareaudan on Jul 31, 2018 9:44:56 GMT -5
how Much sale did Juno and Kite had before their buyout for 9b and 12b. I thought they didnt even have a product approuved by the fda. Mmmm, I dont know, maybe sometime it is the potential futur sales that is being considered. For now the market act like mnkd will never be able to have more futur sales. But what if afrezza start to sell and prove that all the other products that will get out of technosphere are safe, easier to use, faster and at least non inferior to their competitor...mmm what will happen then...we'll see. This is accurate in my opinion. What would be the going price of a mealtime insulin that is as good as (non-inferior) or better (superior) than what's out there now? Every week the scripts rise, the more heat on the outdated insulin makers. It will only get worse. i would Say it will only get better 😀 |
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Post by peppy on Jul 31, 2018 9:49:11 GMT -5
I want to through into the atmosphere. Saudi Arabia. On some call, when asked, paraphrasing, Mike C, "too many regions in Saudi, no overall distributor." Enter Tanner?
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Post by morgieporgie on Jul 31, 2018 9:49:41 GMT -5
This is accurate in my opinion. What would be the going price of a mealtime insulin that is as good as (non-inferior) or better (superior) than what's out there now? Every week the scripts rise, the more heat on the outdated insulin makers. It will only get worse. i would Say it will only get better 😀 Right, better for longs - worse for the outdated insulin makers. I'm with you there!  |
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Post by Clement on Jul 31, 2018 10:02:29 GMT -5
Me, too. The response was: "Your message to mannkind@tannerpharma.com couldn't be delivered. mannkind wasn't found at tannerpharma.com." I notified IR at Mannkind about this. I hope Mango had better luck. Also, I went to the Tanner Pharma website and looked at the list of products. Afrezza was not there. I called the phone number for details about the Tanner Program for Afrezza. I was allowed to leave a message. If an analyst at a big brokerage house had the same experience as above, I wonder what he/she is thinking. X2 here but I also emailed Tanner's general inquiries email address. Please follow up if you get a response. Got a response! The email address is now working. I emailed again yesterday and got a very nice return call from TPG. TPG does not have an info kit but the person at TPG was agreeable to questions. TPG operates a "named patient" program for Afrezza. In a country where Afrezza is not registered, sales promotion is not allowed. So, there cannot be any direct, proactive advertising or selling. Almost every country recognizes a "named patient" program for non-registered pharmaceuticals. Here's the scenario: A PWD in some country finds out about Afrezza. The patient and/or doctor has to find out how to get Afrezza and most likely they will make an inquiry to the Mannkind or Tanner website. This inquiry then goes to TPG, who will help the "named patient" acquire the product. Tanner has already helped some PWDs outside the US acquire Afrezza. My take: being searchable on the internet in many countries is key to good results from this "named patient" program. I don't see thousands of scripts flooding in, but TPG provides a valuable service to PWDs around the world who want (and can afford) Afrezza. I was assured that Mannkind has a place on the Mannkind website so that a PWD inquiring from a country where Afrezza is not registered can click and the inquiry goes to TPG. Afrezza will soon be listed as a product on the Tanner website after an overhaul of the site. If an analyst from a big brokerage house got the same response, I bet s/he would be impressed! |
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Post by mnkdfann on Jul 31, 2018 10:14:02 GMT -5
X2 here but I also emailed Tanner's general inquiries email address. Please follow up if you get a response. Got a response! The email address is now working. I emailed again yesterday and got a very nice return call from TPG. TPG does not have an info kit but the person at TPG was agreeable to questions. TPG operates a "named patient" program for Afrezza. In a country where Afrezza is not registered, sales promotion is not allowed. So, there cannot be any direct, proactive advertising or selling. Almost every country recognizes a "named patient" program for non-registered pharmaceuticals. Here's the scenario: A PWD in some country finds out about Afrezza. The patient and/or doctor has to find out how to get Afrezza and most likely they will make an inquiry to the Mannkind or Tanner website. This inquiry then goes to TPG, who will help the "named patient" acquire the product. Tanner has already helped some PWDs outside the US acquire Afrezza. My take: being searchable on the internet in many countries is key to good results from this "named patient" program. I don't see thousands of scripts flooding in, but TPG provides a valuable service to PWDs around the world who want (and can afford) Afrezza. I was assured that Mannkind has a place on the Mannkind website so that a PWD inquiring from a country where Afrezza is not registered can click and the inquiry goes to TPG. Afrezza will soon be listed as a product on the Tanner website after an overhaul of the site. If an analyst from a big brokerage house got the same response, I bet s/he would be impressed!The 'named patient' news is not new. It was mentioned in the original press release, as noted in the very first post on page 1 of this thread. However, your explanation will surely be beneficial to those who may have been unaware of what that meant. |
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Post by madog365 on Jul 31, 2018 10:27:55 GMT -5
Got a response! The email address is now working. I emailed again yesterday and got a very nice return call from TPG. TPG does not have an info kit but the person at TPG was agreeable to questions. TPG operates a "named patient" program for Afrezza. In a country where Afrezza is not registered, sales promotion is not allowed. So, there cannot be any direct, proactive advertising or selling. Almost every country recognizes a "named patient" program for non-registered pharmaceuticals. Here's the scenario: A PWD in some country finds out about Afrezza. The patient and/or doctor has to find out how to get Afrezza and most likely they will make an inquiry to the Mannkind or Tanner website. This inquiry then goes to TPG, who will help the "named patient" acquire the product. Tanner has already helped some PWDs outside the US acquire Afrezza. My take: being searchable on the internet in many countries is key to good results from this "named patient" program. I don't see thousands of scripts flooding in, but TPG provides a valuable service to PWDs around the world who want (and can afford) Afrezza. I was assured that Mannkind has a place on the Mannkind website so that a PWD inquiring from a country where Afrezza is not registered can click and the inquiry goes to TPG. Afrezza will soon be listed as a product on the Tanner website after an overhaul of the site. If an analyst from a big brokerage house got the same response, I bet s/he would be impressed!The 'named patient' news is not new. It was mentioned in the original press release, as noted in the very first post on page 1 of this thread. However, your explanation will surely be beneficial to those who may have been unaware of what that meant. A very helpful explanation for me. If i am reading correctly would this also mean this deal does not preclude mannkind from forming other marketing/distribution agreements with pharmas in specific geographic regions and push for wider approval in those markets? If so this tanner agreement just sounds like a supplementary program that will allow for additional afrezza patient reach without any negative impacts on cost? |
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Post by matt on Jul 31, 2018 12:19:07 GMT -5
I believe, correct me if I’m wrong that growing bio’s are valued at 10 to 15 times earnings. SNY is no longer a growth stock, they pay a dividend, so you can’t compare the two. You can't look at it that simplistically. Virtually all biotechs with a promising drug in Phase III have substantial value despite zero sales and huge negative cash flows required to fund R&D to completion; a mathematically undefined multiple. That value increases further or declines toward zero at the moment FDA approves or rejects their drug application. Multiples in such cases aren't very useful. Most mature pharmaceuticals with a mix of marketed and pipeline products trade around 4X sales with a 30-40% debt to total capital. That assumes a normal growth rate for sales in the high single digits and a pretax operating profit greater than 20%. Biotechs can be more or less valuable depending on the mix of marketed to pipeline products, presumed growth rates for their marketed products, and profitability. Mannkind has high sales growth, albeit from a tiny number, but the company generates no operating profit and arguably is overleveraged by a few orders of magnitude. Other biotechs are all over the place depending on their metrics so it is very difficult to come up with any reliable rules of thumb; you have to tear apart the financials and do some analysis. When the market is not going crazy (like it has the past year or two) you are hard pressed to get more than 8X net cash flow for any pharma company that is not undergoing hypergrowth. DXCM is not a good comparator in any event. DXCM is a medical device company the operates with shorter life cycles for its products, a different regulatory regime, and far different manufacturing economics. You can compare pharma to pharma, or medical device to medical device, but when you combine them you are comparing apples and oranges. |
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Post by babaoriley on Jul 31, 2018 13:16:56 GMT -5
Nice, intelligent post, except for the first, incredibly patronizing sentence. I'd be pleased just calling Tanner a "pusher" instead of a distributor.  |
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Post by casualinvestor on Jul 31, 2018 13:17:16 GMT -5
Back to Tanner, what's the frequency with which we will get updates on actual sales? I'm guessing we'll only see that on Quarterly earnings?
Bets on which quarter that starts to happen?
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