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Post by sayhey24 on Aug 3, 2018 5:39:02 GMT -5
this is what I found, Pat McCauley So we like that we're ending on a high note, we're continuing to move forward with that. If you switch over now, let's take a closer look at the writer, same format, and what you see here are unique Afrezza writers per quarter, and that's just a simple way of saying that they prescribed at least one Afrezza prescription in a given quarter. Now as you can see in the second quarter of '18 in the top line, our Afrezza NRx market share exceeded 4.5%. You can also see that TRx has increased each quarter since the launch of the MannKind sales team. And we think this is really important, because it demonstrates that once a physician has made that clinical decision to prescribe Afrezza, we have a great opportunity to increase breadth and depth of prescribing. And when it comes to MannKind cares and patient referrals, I'm really excited to share with you that referrals have increased 73% from the first quarter of '18 to the second quarter of '18. Still don't understand. 4.5% of what? Is he saying that for doctors who prescribe afrezza, 4.5% of the rxs they write are for Afrezza?
This is what he said - "what you see here are unique Afrezza writers per quarter, and that's just a simple way of saying that they prescribed at least one Afrezza prescription in a given quarter"
In other words - out of the total population of doctors writing scripts for meal time insulin, 4.5% are writing scripts for afrezza. The implication is they write one and see how the PWD makes out in 6 months. As they see the results and learn more about afrezza, then they write a few more and a few more and then a lot.
Its a process but the thing afrezza has going for it is it really works. Now the sales staff just needs to get the other 95% writing scripts and then the PCPs.
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Post by sportsrancho on Aug 3, 2018 6:18:16 GMT -5
I had a lot of question on the Tanner Pharma, I just wanted to address there is no upfront money because we still own global rights to Afrezza. Tanner Pharma is mainly meant to help patients, we get called every single week of people wanting Afrezza around the world, and we didn't have a mechanism to enable them to get it, whether it's through the government or through them purchasing it in cash -- in conjunction with their doctor. And Tanner Pharma has a name patient access program that enables people around the world to get Afrezza while we pursue regulatory approvals ourselves or continue to find a global partner to get the product ready registers, especially as we go to Europe and Australia. So that's why I had to explain that, so people weren't confused. Done for the patients! I love this because I see the people from other countries on Twitter asking and wondering. Your heart goes out to them, and obviously...well I’ll just say, Mannkind, the pharma with a ❤️ |
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Post by casualinvestor on Aug 3, 2018 7:32:30 GMT -5
Afrezza net revenue was $3.8 million. I show $8.4M from Symphony for the 13 weeks ending 6/29. That works out to 45% when talking about Net vs Symphony. Still not a good number...because 50% was such easy math  For the first half of 2018, it was $7.2M / $14.9M = 48%. I may be missing something since we are selling more and net to gross is getting worse. |
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Post by mytakeonit on Aug 3, 2018 12:49:24 GMT -5
And that's why they call it "gross". Never could understand why they chose the word gross  And I'm an accountant ! |
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Post by traderdennis on Aug 3, 2018 13:02:47 GMT -5
I think 4.5% NRx market share = market share of all NRx written for mealtime insulin Afrezza----495 $632k 277 $380k Apidra----6520 $4.95m 2254 $1.77m Novalog--137k $132m 56.0k $57.8m Humalog-151k $139m 60.3k $58.0m Humalin--37.4k $20.5m 14.9k $8.0m umm 277 / 133731 = 0.21% of all new Nrx is Afrezza. |
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Post by sr71 on Aug 3, 2018 13:45:06 GMT -5
That is for ALL writers. I think what the CC indicated is that it is ~ 4.5% for NRX's among HCP's that write at least one Afrezza prescription during the period.
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Post by lakers on Aug 5, 2018 4:35:08 GMT -5
Mike gave plenty of hints:
Now that we have announced positive results for our TrepT program and Afrezza continues to grow, the interest in Technosphere technology as a platform is increasing.
we continue to look for eight players to join our sales team, and we'll happily hire them when we find them. As evidenced, we have 10 new people starting in August alone. When we finish up the recapitalization it will enable us to recruit some of the best talent in the market and drive additional growth as we go into 2019 and beyond.
Over the last year, we have raised almost $90 million at an average price of $3.67 a share. We've been able to reduce our debt by over $50 million, while restructuring the remaining debt outstanding to give us the runway to cash flow breakeven. From what we know today, we expect the predominant way MannKind will get the cash flow breakeven will be through our business development activities listed on the slide, driving faster for the trial and adoption, as well as potential new debt opportunities given our asset base. At this point, we look to finish up the recapitalization plan that Steve and I started over a year ago, and we believe this will put us on the pathway to cash flow breakeven.
As you look at the list on the slide you can see we have many options to recapitalize the company, and I do not expect equity/continued dilution will be the predominant way we grow our cash flow to breakeven.
You need to re-read the first three bullets as Mnkd finishes up the recap.
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Post by sportsrancho on Aug 5, 2018 6:07:56 GMT -5
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Post by cjm18 on Aug 5, 2018 7:39:30 GMT -5
New debt is the only one of those that can get the amount of cash we need. Deerfield as collateral might work. But why didn’t they do it already? |
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Post by goyocafe on Aug 5, 2018 10:52:46 GMT -5
“New debt is the only one of those that can get the amount of cash we need. Deerfield as collateral might work. But why didn’t they do it already?”
I believe they have been counting on the sp being higher for some time now. I believe they thought insurance would improve faster with the label change, but that didn’t happen. Then they thought it would improve with the STAT results and ADA and that hasn’t happened yet. And I also believe they didn’t expect the stock to be manipulated so heavily, but that one shouldn’t surprise anyone at this point. AND maybe, just maybe, MC has an ace up his sleeve.
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Post by buyitonsale on Aug 5, 2018 12:43:53 GMT -5
I believe we will see the following this year:
1. TreT partnership with substantial upfront cash
2. New debt against assets
One of those deals should be finalized in time to allow 33M warrants
to be exercised.
So far Deerfield worked with us to clear the runway and perhaps
they will be the one to underwrite the new debt , but
most likely there is a new player, because I would have expected
Deerfield to complete the restructuring already instead of introducing incremental amendments.
I believe that a combination of increasing US and new Brazil sales
will get us to cash flow break even within 18 - 24 months and
I’m unticipating total recapitalization plan to bring in at least 150M.
We will see what the first step will be and
even if that step is dilution I believe it will
only involve a minimum amount needed to carry out the
real plan.
Go MNKD!
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Post by lakers on Aug 5, 2018 13:10:37 GMT -5
Mike replied: We can’t provide more clarity than yesterday [CC day]. We have been working on this for over a year and tried to be clear yesterday about dilution not being our primary/expected way forward. Matt said: Cash at the end of June was $26 million, cash burn during Q2 was $27 million. The math from there is pretty easy. There are things the company can do to delay the inevitable, like increasing accounts payable and limiting expenditures, but some items need to be paid with cash as they fall due (like payroll and employment taxes). While Mike likes to talk about non-dilutive financing sources, he is out of time to find one and the company will have to raise cash. There is no way around it. The ATM is a double-edged sword in that those shares hit the market the same day they are sold, and typically this creates a company initiated death spiral as the new shares hitting the bid reduce the price even more. Ditto obtaining a waiver on the Deerfield debt covenants since Deerfield has shown itself to be a very short term holder of the stock and possibly even shorting in anticipation of receiving stock. That too reduces the price, so it comes down to whether it is better to do a large PIPE and take all the pain at once, or dribble the shares out and risk death by a thousand cuts. Mike can say that he has no plans for bankruptcy, no management team ever does until they suddenly do, but I am not sure that is a responsible comment to make. The fact is that as of this 10Q, shareholder equity was a negative $207 million meaning the company meets one of the legal definitions for bankrupt in the State of Delaware (and has for years). So far the creditors have gone along with that but it only takes three disgruntled creditors owed an aggregate of $10K to put the company into bankruptcy court where the future course of action is not within management's control. Raising cash takes that risk off the table for a while. Place your bet accordingly. As a data point, Matt (Matt_PK ?) mentioned BK as a possibility before, then Matt P. pulled out a rabbit from his hat - SNY settlement which many had thought not possible. Now, it’s Mike and Matt. Here we go again. Read more: mnkd.proboards.com/thread/10304/mnkd-management-respond?page=3#ixzz5NKQhd81I |
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Post by sportsrancho on Aug 5, 2018 13:33:40 GMT -5
Good, I surely wouldn’t have wanted Mike to miss this.. although I’m sure he’s well aware where it comes from.
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 5, 2018 13:49:23 GMT -5
Mike replied: We can’t provide more clarity than yesterday [CC day]. We have been working on this for over a year and tried to be clear yesterday about dilution not being our primary/expected way forward. Matt said: Cash at the end of June was $26 million, cash burn during Q2 was $27 million. The math from there is pretty easy. There are things the company can do to delay the inevitable, like increasing accounts payable and limiting expenditures, but some items need to be paid with cash as they fall due (like payroll and employment taxes). While Mike likes to talk about non-dilutive financing sources, he is out of time to find one and the company will have to raise cash. There is no way around it. The ATM is a double-edged sword in that those shares hit the market the same day they are sold, and typically this creates a company initiated death spiral as the new shares hitting the bid reduce the price even more. Ditto obtaining a waiver on the Deerfield debt covenants since Deerfield has shown itself to be a very short term holder of the stock and possibly even shorting in anticipation of receiving stock. That too reduces the price, so it comes down to whether it is better to do a large PIPE and take all the pain at once, or dribble the shares out and risk death by a thousand cuts. Mike can say that he has no plans for bankruptcy, no management team ever does until they suddenly do, but I am not sure that is a responsible comment to make. The fact is that as of this 10Q, shareholder equity was a negative $207 million meaning the company meets one of the legal definitions for bankrupt in the State of Delaware (and has for years). So far the creditors have gone along with that but it only takes three disgruntled creditors owed an aggregate of $10K to put the company into bankruptcy court where the future course of action is not within management's control. Raising cash takes that risk off the table for a while. Place your bet accordingly. Read more: mnkd.proboards.com/thread/10304/mnkd-management-respond?page=3#ixzz5NKQhd81INot sure where all the other geniuses got their training or how many of them received their MBA from Wharton but judging from the posts I see I wonder how many graduated HS. I'll take Mike's resume, Mike has been in some decent circles as well. One of which actually circles around a prior believer in Afrezza. After Chris Viehbacher unexpectedly left SNY and we were saddled with Brandicourt, he was picked up by Ernesto Bertarelli and placed in charge of Gurnet Point Capital. Gurnet is primarily involved with funding and taking equity positions in Healthcare. Mike worked for Serono (Ernesto), Ernesto is an Italian version of Al Mann, philanthropist and dedicated to helping via healthcare and treating pandemic diseases. Viehbacher on the other hand would most likely love nothing more than to show SNY what a huge mistake they made by hiring Brandicourt. I am in the camp that this is a no brainer given the current SI for a hedge fund to come in and take an equity play for instantaneous gains along with setting the company up to realize it's potential success. The point here is Mike is not someone that just came off the ship, he has a qualified background and knows quite a few circles. Anything is possible and can come out from left field at any given time, stranger things have happened. One can debate whether or not Mike has made significant progress in just one year's time. Putting the current team in place is already evidence of what he is capable of, I wouldn't want to be betting against him even though it seems the easier course based on the situation. Just my thoughts, and for the record I have no knowledge of any direct interaction between Mike and Gurnet, it was just presented as an example as food for thought and to open some minds about alternative possibilities. |
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Post by tiberious on Aug 5, 2018 14:22:30 GMT -5
“New debt is the only one of those that can get the amount of cash we need. Deerfield as collateral might work. But why didn’t they do it already?” I believe they have been counting on the sp being higher for some time now. I believe they thought insurance would improve faster with the label change, but that didn’t happen. Then they thought it would improve with the STAT results and ADA and that hasn’t happened yet. And I also believe they didn’t expect the stock to be manipulated so heavily, but that one shouldn’t surprise anyone at this point. AND maybe, just maybe, MC has an ace up his sleeve. Considering this company is so close to turning a corner along with science and real world benefit picture becoming so clear in favor of Afrezza, scripts increasing, ADA, TIR, TrepT, Kendall, patents, etc., etc., I would not be surprised if some other deep pocketed investors readily step up and float a few million to get this over the goal line. Relatively, its chump change versus what funds have gone into MNKD up to this point. Most people out there haven't toured the plant in Danbury... I have many times and it's an amazing facility that is not going away and time soon IMHO. Also impressive to this day is the relatively few number of employees running the entire company today versus BP ~200-ish this kind of overhead is minuscule compared with others competing in the same space. Buying more on Monday I think this is an easy pitch for new debt/loan. Go MNKD! |
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And I'm an accountant !
