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Post by barnstormer on Aug 5, 2018 14:22:51 GMT -5
Well stated Joey. Would love to see Viehbacher back in the MNKD story. "revenge is a dish best served cold"
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Post by compound26 on Aug 5, 2018 14:25:42 GMT -5
Joey, can’t agree more. Judging by the posts, there are many saints here who are just concerned about us clueless little longs. They have no positions in MNKD and they spend thousand of hours worrying about us being “hurt” by the “incompetent” management. By my count, 8 of 10 of the world’s most altruistic persons are actually active contributors of this board. They are right here. The other two I can think of are AF and SO. Or probably a few others on SA and MF.
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Post by matt on Aug 5, 2018 14:40:32 GMT -5
As a data point, Matt (Matt_PK ?) mentioned BK as a possibility before, then Matt P. pulled out a rabbit from his hat - SNY settlement which many had thought not possible. Now, it’s Mike and Matt. Here we go again. I did think MNKD was nearing the end, and I am still surprised the Sanofi wrote such a big check to exit the relationship. Big companies do things they are not required to do at times to avoid unfavorable press, but the Sanofi deal was over the top by industry standards. No question Matt P. did a great job getting it done. However, you are again correct that I am concerned that MNKD will be forced into a situation that is not good for shareholders. Deerfield Partners is not Sanofi and they have let other companies they funded fail rather than recapitalize them (Dendreon for example, who had a product selling over $300 million a year with a 50% gross margin and more than $120 million in cash on their balance sheet when they went BK). If MNKD was debt-free it wouldn't matter if Afrezza took another six, twelve, or twenty-four months to catch fire in the marketplace, but the fact is that liabilities are $269 million while assets are $62 million. Even if the Mann Group pulled a Sanofi and forgave their debt entirely, the liabilities would still be $198 million and the cash would not increase a penny. Don't count on Deerfield Partners to be so understanding. Cash buys flexibility and business runway, lack of cash ties the company up in knots. There are lots, lots, of biotechs that exist for years without profitable sales or clean balance sheets, but they typically have cash resources several times larger than their annual burn rate. Cash keeps companies out of BK court, and more than one profitable company (by conventional accounting statements) found themselves in BK court because they ran short on cash to support profitable growth. That is the issue, plain and simple, when time runs out it runs out. I am sure management is well aware of where they stand, and if they aren't, then I am sure their auditors and board members have reminded them. The company needs to raise $30 million or so just to get to the end of the quarter, a bit less if both Deerfield and Amphastar take stock in lieu of debt. That is a tough order for a stock trading just above a dollar, and the challenge of pulling that off is why the stock took a hard fall last week; the market has seen this movie before. Fix the cash problem and Mike buys the runway he needs. |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 5, 2018 14:59:49 GMT -5
Joey, can’t agree more. Judging by the posts, there are many saints here who are just concerned about us clueless little longs. They have no positions in MNKD and they spend thousand of hours worrying about us being “hurt” by the “incompetent” management. By my count, 8 of 10 of the world’s most altruistic persons are actually active contributors of this board. They are right here. The other two I can think of are AF and SO. Or probably a few others on SA and MF. I wouldn't include AF in that lot, he is in another category, IMO the others don't have to constantly look over their shoulders everyday in life....I believe AF does, JMO  |
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Post by barnstormer on Aug 5, 2018 15:13:39 GMT -5
The stock was trading in the low $1.50 range before the MF hit article came out. It should gain some of that back once cooler heads begin to prevail.
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Post by traderdennis on Aug 5, 2018 19:06:18 GMT -5
“New debt is the only one of those that can get the amount of cash we need. Deerfield as collateral might work. But why didn’t they do it already?” I believe they have been counting on the sp being higher for some time now. I believe they thought insurance would improve faster with the label change, but that didn’t happen. Then they thought it would improve with the STAT results and ADA and that hasn’t happened yet. And I also believe they didn’t expect the stock to be manipulated so heavily, but that one shouldn’t surprise anyone at this point. AND maybe, just maybe, MC has an ace up his sleeve. What manipulation?  ) The company lowered guidance and they are running out of money. Manipulation was the run up to six last October. |
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Post by goyocafe on Aug 5, 2018 19:11:31 GMT -5
“New debt is the only one of those that can get the amount of cash we need. Deerfield as collateral might work. But why didn’t they do it already?” I believe they have been counting on the sp being higher for some time now. I believe they thought insurance would improve faster with the label change, but that didn’t happen. Then they thought it would improve with the STAT results and ADA and that hasn’t happened yet. And I also believe they didn’t expect the stock to be manipulated so heavily, but that one shouldn’t surprise anyone at this point. AND maybe, just maybe, MC has an ace up his sleeve. What manipulation? ) The company lowered guidance and they are running out of money. Manipulation was the run up to six last October. It goes both ways, but with well timed hit pieces talking smack about the co and the drug and all the usual suspects coming out of the woodwork all in the span of two hours speaks volumes as to what went down on Friday. Believe what you want. |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 5, 2018 19:51:13 GMT -5
“New debt is the only one of those that can get the amount of cash we need. Deerfield as collateral might work. But why didn’t they do it already?” I believe they have been counting on the sp being higher for some time now. I believe they thought insurance would improve faster with the label change, but that didn’t happen. Then they thought it would improve with the STAT results and ADA and that hasn’t happened yet. And I also believe they didn’t expect the stock to be manipulated so heavily, but that one shouldn’t surprise anyone at this point. AND maybe, just maybe, MC has an ace up his sleeve. What manipulation? ) The company lowered guidance and they are running out of money. Manipulation was the run up to six last October. How much of this blog article ( seekingalpha.com/instablog/11442671-gerald-klein/3096735-anatomy-of-a-short-attack ) does not match up with what took place on Friday? I would call 11M shares in what has been an avg. summer volume of <1M sh/day somewhat of a blitzkrieg centered around all the other components in the referenced article....fits it to a "T", the run up to six last year was more of a "sampling" of what happens when there is a scramble for shares called on waves of failure to deliver and along with margin calls.....now if some got caught with their pants down (and I trust that some did from some of the reactions) so be it, if you're saying that it was manipulated by the company or a "house" that was getting ready to do a direct placement and knew it was ripe for a run-up well who's fault would that be, I call it shrewd planning....maybe it's getting ripe again who knows, what I do know is this is the most anticipated dilution event forecast that I can remember in the history of Mannkind, what do you suspect happens if those well publicized slim to none odds of something non-dilutive takes place or even better, if and when the widely anticipated dilution does take place and gets absorbed again? |
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Post by sportsrancho on Aug 5, 2018 20:08:13 GMT -5
“this is the most anticipated dilution event forecast that I can remember in the history of Mannkind, what do you suspect happens if those well publicized slim to none odds of something non-dilutive takes place or even better, if and when the widely anticipated dilution does take place and gets absorbed again?”
Exactly in the history of any stock I’ve ever owned. Do people usually PR a Wainwright raise money luncheon? What about just a red flag with “pipe” on it:-) So just maybe that’s not what’s happening🤷♀️
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Post by traderdennis on Aug 5, 2018 21:11:00 GMT -5
What manipulation? ) The company lowered guidance and they are running out of money. Manipulation was the run up to six last October. How much of this blog article ( seekingalpha.com/instablog/11442671-gerald-klein/3096735-anatomy-of-a-short-attack ) does not match up with what took place on Friday? I would call 11M shares in what has been an avg. summer volume of <1M sh/day somewhat of a blitzkrieg centered around all the other components in the referenced article....fits it to a "T", the run up to six last year was more of a "sampling" of what happens when there is a scramble for shares called on waves of failure to deliver and along with margin calls.....now if some got caught with their pants down (and I trust that some did from some of the reactions) so be it, if you're saying that it was manipulated by the company or a "house" that was getting ready to do a direct placement and knew it was ripe for a run-up well who's fault would that be, I call it shrewd planning....maybe it's getting ripe again who knows, what I do know is this is the most anticipated dilution event forecast that I can remember in the history of Mannkind, what do you suspect happens if those well publicized slim to none odds of something non-dilutive takes place or even better, if and when the widely anticipated dilution does take place and gets absorbed again? Frat July volume was around 25 million shares or about 1.2 million shares personal day not less than 1 million. Nit picking over. If there is a dilutive event then I expect the stock price to perform just like the last two dilutive events. A downward pressure on share price. Stock prices is down 50 percent from April’s event. |
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Post by tinkusr8215 on Aug 5, 2018 21:27:07 GMT -5
Would this volume be from ATM sales? If ATM - when would it have to be disclosed?
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Post by mytakeonit on Aug 5, 2018 21:30:11 GMT -5
Warning: People who had stop losses got caught with their pants down. On the flip side, when share prices start running up in the next few weeks ... don't set sell orders too low and get caught with your pants down again.
Or, send your shares to me at mytakeonit.com and I'll handle it for you FREE !!! That's right ... no $20 fee !!!
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Post by tomtabb on Aug 6, 2018 4:15:52 GMT -5
Would this volume be from ATM sales? If ATM - when would it have to be disclosed?
ATM sales wouldn't have to be disclosed until the next quarterly report. |
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Post by mnholdem on Aug 6, 2018 8:09:35 GMT -5
joey - While your comments about CEO Mike Castagna's circles is spot on, MannKind's new CFO Steve Binder is no slouch, either, moving back to the USA from Singapore, where he was CFO of Stryker Corporation (a medical device company with a 2Q18 net revenue of $3.3 billion) and, prior to that, VP Finance at Bristol-Myers Squibb Company.
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Post by casualinvestor on Aug 6, 2018 8:44:07 GMT -5
Would this volume be from ATM sales? If ATM - when would it have to be disclosed?
ATM sales wouldn't have to be disclosed until the next quarterly report. I wouldn't expect several hit articles to come out right at the same time as ATM usage. It might be an unhappy coincidence, but I'd guess not. |
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