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Post by radgray68 on Aug 3, 2018 16:40:11 GMT -5
All mike could say is "we are not aware of any reason for today's share price action". Not sure how that would help anything. So it’s a good buying opportunity Heck yeah today is the day to load up! Purchased 12,385 shares and cant wait until bank transfer is complete so I can get some options nest week to really maximize this BS downward move. I'd scream foul...if I didn't know how to make a profit from it. All smiles here because I listened to the call twice yesterday and read NOTHING of the good stuff in those short rags today.
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Post by harryx1 on Aug 3, 2018 17:15:33 GMT -5
Yes they will Ok I'll post it.
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Post by centralcoastinvestor on Aug 3, 2018 17:25:12 GMT -5
Yes they will Ok I'll post it. Preach it brother!!!!!
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Post by cedafuntennis on Aug 3, 2018 17:27:01 GMT -5
The problem I see is that Mike said that dilution will not be a primary source of cash. And the other potential sources were rather vague which left the window very open to interpretation and with MNKD these days, all interpretations by the market is negative interpretation.
On a more positive note, I created an normalized income chart where I adjusted for the vacations and the exponential increase is much more visible. I did an R2 analysis and the value is increasing steadily. From a projected $900k per week forecast to 11/18, it is now up to 1.2 Mil by the same timeframe. I could post it if anyone wants to see it.
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Post by pantaloons on Aug 3, 2018 17:36:35 GMT -5
The problem I see is that Mike said that dilution will not be a primary source of cash. And the other potential sources were rather vague which left the window very open to interpretation and with MNKD these days, all interpretations by the market is negative interpretation. On a more positive note, I created an normalized income chart where I adjusted for the vacations and the exponential increase is much more visible. I did an R 2 analysis and the value is increasing steadily. From a projected $900k per week forecast to 11/18, it is now up to 1.2 Mil by the same timeframe. I could post it if anyone wants to see it. I agree. The (immediate/short-term) elephant in the room is financing and whether it will be dilutive or not. Investors are keen to learn how this will be achieved in the favor of the company and shareholders alike. More or less, this needs to be addressed urgently, as today's share price has likely indicated.
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Post by brotherm1 on Aug 3, 2018 17:42:51 GMT -5
I thought he said “going forward” dilution will not be the primary source. I took that to mean after the current cash raise which I assumed was already in the works.
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Post by mcloven on Aug 3, 2018 18:04:55 GMT -5
The problem I see is that Mike said that dilution will not be a primary source of cash. And the other potential sources were rather vague which left the window very open to interpretation and with MNKD these days, all interpretations by the market is negative interpretation. On a more positive note, I created an normalized income chart where I adjusted for the vacations and the exponential increase is much more visible. I did an R 2 analysis and the value is increasing steadily. From a projected $900k per week forecast to 11/18, it is now up to 1.2 Mil by the same timeframe. I could post it if anyone wants to see it. I am very interested in yout R2 analysis. Please share if possible. Thank you!
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Post by agedhippie on Aug 3, 2018 18:46:49 GMT -5
The 10Q implies that with the current burn rate Mannkind is below the restricted cash threshold so within the next eight weeks $20 million is needed to fix that given the rate of cash outflow. Then there is just over $5 million in Deerfield and insulin payments. That is $25 million raise just to clear the end of the quarter I think. If they are going to combine that with a raise to carry through the end of the year at $9 million outflow per month plus another $3 million for insulin it looks like a total raise of around $55 million to reach the end of the year.
Where can that come from:
Not overseas sales, Brazil is Q1 2019, and India is later.
Not from an investor. At this point they would want so much of the company the deal wouldn't get done.
Up front cash from a new partner. Unlikely but vaguely possible. However I doubt out would be more than $5 million at the most and that is very optimistic.
A loan. Secured against what assets? Deerfield already has first claim. That really makes Deerfield the only source of a loan IMHO.
Deerfield waives or lowers the restricted cash limit for a quarter. I think this is possible, but it will be expensive. That would reduce the raise to $35 million.
Improved sales. No way sales can improve enough to raise this amount of cash. The lowered guidance makes it looks like the management don't think so either.
Dilution. Either at the ATM or via a placing. My preference would be at the ATM since it avoids discounts and warrants. The alternative is another placing with Wainwrights.
The bottom line is that after these results I think there is a big dilution coming and I am probably not the only one that thinks that judging by the stock price. It is the only realistic way to raise the money to get through the end of the year that I can see. Personally I would rather they did as much of this as possible through the ATM because I think that is where the best price is.
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Post by boca1girl on Aug 3, 2018 18:48:46 GMT -5
As far as a management response, a modest insider buy would probably go a long way. As far as today’s action, what are the terms for the ATM? Any chance we tapped that to get about 1 month’s runway? Maybe get a little more time to get a deal done? I listened to yesterday’s call while I was doing something else, so I may have missed it, but I was expecting some update on the term sheets Mike alluded to last quarter. I didn’t notice that on the call. Based on previous calls, I would think those term sheets would be close to final by now, but not hearing anything yesterday leads me to think we hit a roadblock. I was able to add to my position at 1.08, maybe against my better judgment. I also thought that today’s downward action may have been started by selling via the ATM. I keep telling myself that it is so risky to run so thin on cash that management has to be very, very close to obtaining funds that are non-dulitive. But today’s flash crash has me wondering.
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Post by sportsrancho on Aug 3, 2018 19:47:56 GMT -5
The 10Q implies that with the current burn rate Mannkind is below the restricted cash threshold so within the next eight weeks $20 million is needed to fix that given the rate of cash outflow. Then there is just over $5 million in Deerfield and insulin payments. That is $25 million raise just to clear the end of the quarter I think. If they are going to combine that with a raise to carry through the end of the year at $9 million outflow per month plus another $3 million for insulin it looks like a total raise of around $55 million to reach the end of the year. Where can that come from: Not overseas sales, Brazil is Q1 2019, and India is later. Not from an investor. At this point they would want so much of the company the deal wouldn't get done. Up front cash from a new partner. Unlikely but vaguely possible. However I doubt out would be more than $5 million at the most and that is very optimistic. A loan. Secured against what assets? Deerfield already has first claim. That really makes Deerfield the only source of a loan IMHO. Deerfield waives or lowers the restricted cash limit for a quarter. I think this is possible, but it will be expensive. That would reduce the raise to $35 million. Improved sales. No way sales can improve enough to raise this amount of cash. The lowered guidance makes it looks like the management don't think so either. Dilution. Either at the ATM or via a placing. My preference would be at the ATM since it avoids discounts and warrants. The alternative is another placing with Wainwrights. The bottom line is that after these results I think there is a big dilution coming and I am probably not the only one that thinks that judging by the stock price. It is the only realistic way to raise the money to get through the end of the year that I can see. Personally I would rather they did as much of this as possible through the ATM because I think that is where the best price is. I agree, and the only thing to do is to go back to Deerfield, but why would they spend all this time getting out from under their thumb just to have to retrace their tracks?
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Post by mytakeonit on Aug 3, 2018 19:54:34 GMT -5
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Post by slugworth008 on Aug 3, 2018 21:44:03 GMT -5
As far as a management response, a modest insider buy would probably go a long way. As far as today’s action, what are the terms for the ATM? Any chance we tapped that to get about 1 month’s runway? Maybe get a little more time to get a deal done? I listened to yesterday’s call while I was doing something else, so I may have missed it, but I was expecting some update on the term sheets Mike alluded to last quarter. I didn’t notice that on the call. Based on previous calls, I would think those term sheets would be close to final by now, but not hearing anything yesterday leads me to think we hit a roadblock. I was able to add to my position at 1.08, maybe against my better judgment. I personally do not want any insider buys - as historically that has not been good for the PPS. JMHO
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Post by slugworth008 on Aug 3, 2018 21:44:32 GMT -5
I'm hanging all right - lol
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Post by mnkdfann on Aug 3, 2018 22:29:57 GMT -5
Yes they will Ok I'll post it. Except it wasn’t record scripts. Sanofi still had better script weeks. 🙁
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Post by deaner3 on Aug 3, 2018 22:51:59 GMT -5
Yes they will Ok I'll post it. Except it wasn’t record scripts. Sanofi still had better script weeks. 🙁 You can compare Sanofi giving out free samples to mnkd selling 6 month scripts. It’s all about the revenue which was 22.6% higher than last week and by far a record number
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