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Post by brotherm1 on Aug 4, 2018 10:09:48 GMT -5
As long as it’s not a crack pipe, I’ll take it.
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Post by ptass on Aug 4, 2018 13:39:26 GMT -5
A another possibility is the company is sold out right.
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Post by bthomas55ep on Aug 4, 2018 14:41:24 GMT -5
A another possibility is the company is sold out right. I believe before the company completed the RS, there were approximately 400+ Million shares outstanding. If scripts can continue to grow and hopefully accelerate a little, isn't it likely they could get to cash flow break even with a few more subscriptions before they would get to that level of issuance. If so, what would a "profitable" and growing biotech multiple look like if it had revenue over $100 Million a year and growing? Pre RS and FDA approval, the share price touched the double digits a few times with the old share count ($4 to $5 Billion valuation). Mannkind just printed $862k in weekly revenue (more than double last year at this time). If the company had to issue 100 million more shares from now until a year from now and in a year, script revenue goes through $2M a week, that would close back in on having 300 million shares issued, but with B/K off the table and only growth ahead, a $3B valuation (or $10 a share to start seems like a no brainier). I think that is what Mike and the team see and why cash flow positive is the highest priority. Of course, any other mechanisms to keep the dilution below that point until they hit the mark is only gravy to the long term multiple. With the boldness of the companies statements and plans, I am enjoying this time to repair my basis to pre RS and believe that by the end of 2019, Mannkind goes cash flow positive and then we need to call Katie in to bar the door. Until the past couple of quarters, I thought "if we could just get another pop to over $6 again, I'm out". After the most recent developments from ADA to now, I think I am just going to see how many shares I can buy (not telling my wife of course) until I let her know that the house is paid off. It just doesn't seem that far fetched anymore if we can just see the scripts continur to grow weekly. I'm not worried about the 100 million shares give or take 100 million that it will take to fund activities till break even. Definitely feels like a $million a week will be seen in scripts by 4Q. GLTA
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Post by traderdennis on Aug 4, 2018 15:00:33 GMT -5
A another possibility is the company is sold out right. I believe before the company completed the RS, there were approximately 400+ Million shares outstanding. If scripts can continue to grow and hopefully accelerate a little, isn't it likely they could get to cash flow break even with a few more subscriptions before they would get to that level of issuance. If so, what would a "profitable" and growing biotech multiple look like if it had revenue over $100 Million a year and growing? Pre RS and FDA approval, the share price touched the double digits a few times with the old share count ($4 to $5 Billion valuation). Mannkind just printed $862k in weekly revenue (more than double last year at this time). If the company had to issue 100 million more shares from now until a year from now and in a year, script revenue goes through $2M a week, that would close back in on having 300 million shares issued, but with B/K off the table and only growth ahead, a $3B valuation (or $10 a share to start seems like a no brainier). I think that is what Mike and the team see and why cash flow positive is the highest priority. Of course, any other mechanisms to keep the dilution below that point until they hit the mark is only gravy to the long term multiple. With the boldness of the companies statements and plans, I am enjoying this time to repair my basis to pre RS and believe that by the end of 2019, Mannkind goes cash flow positive and then we need to call Katie in to bar the door. Until the past couple of quarters, I thought "if we could just get another pop to over $6 again, I'm out". After the most recent developments from ADA to now, I think I am just going to see how many shares I can buy (not telling my wife of course) until I let her know that the house is paid off. It just doesn't seem that far fetched anymore if we can just see the scripts continur to grow weekly. I'm not worried about the 100 million shares give or take 100 million that it will take to fund activities till break even. Definitely feels like a $million a week will be seen in scripts by 4Q. GLTA Afrezza revenue for the last quarter was less than 1/5 the amount of cash burn. Back of the napkin math would equate about 2500 to 3000 scripts per week for cash flow break even. The company is light yeRa away from that number.
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Post by bthomas55ep on Aug 4, 2018 15:21:09 GMT -5
I believe before the company completed the RS, there were approximately 400+ Million shares outstanding. If scripts can continue to grow and hopefully accelerate a little, isn't it likely they could get to cash flow break even with a few more subscriptions before they would get to that level of issuance. If so, what would a "profitable" and growing biotech multiple look like if it had revenue over $100 Million a year and growing? Pre RS and FDA approval, the share price touched the double digits a few times with the old share count ($4 to $5 Billion valuation). Mannkind just printed $862k in weekly revenue (more than double last year at this time). If the company had to issue 100 million more shares from now until a year from now and in a year, script revenue goes through $2M a week, that would close back in on having 300 million shares issued, but with B/K off the table and only growth ahead, a $3B valuation (or $10 a share to start seems like a no brainier). I think that is what Mike and the team see and why cash flow positive is the highest priority. Of course, any other mechanisms to keep the dilution below that point until they hit the mark is only gravy to the long term multiple. With the boldness of the companies statements and plans, I am enjoying this time to repair my basis to pre RS and believe that by the end of 2019, Mannkind goes cash flow positive and then we need to call Katie in to bar the door. Until the past couple of quarters, I thought "if we could just get another pop to over $6 again, I'm out". After the most recent developments from ADA to now, I think I am just going to see how many shares I can buy (not telling my wife of course) until I let her know that the house is paid off. It just doesn't seem that far fetched anymore if we can just see the scripts continur to grow weekly. I'm not worried about the 100 million shares give or take 100 million that it will take to fund activities till break even. Definitely feels like a $million a week will be seen in scripts by 4Q. GLTA Afrezza revenue for the last quarter was less than 1/5 the amount of cash burn. Back of the napkin math would equate about 2500 to 3000 scripts per week for cash flow break even. The company is light yeRa away from that number. Light years sounds a little harsh. A country mile sounds more like it. Weekly revenue just as the 2nd quarter started was $499k (and spent a lot of time weekly in the $500k's. It ended the quarter with the week ending 6/29 at $720k. An $862k week was just printed. If this moves to $1M a week as a run rate by some time in the 4th quarter and a reasonable (not hockey stick) growth rate is maintained in 2019, $2M a week by the end of 2019 puts the company in a cash flow positive run rate by the end of next year (IMO, of course). Who knows what delta Brazil or Tanner can bring to that equation? Anyway, I stand by my opinion how much closer cash flow positive is if they have truly begun to figure out the recipe and continue solving insurance. I think we will get there on a fast horse in a years time versus needing that Starship you were talking about.
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Post by mnkdfann on Aug 4, 2018 21:45:38 GMT -5
I agree, and the only thing to do is to go back to Deerfield, but why would they spend all this time getting out from under their thumb just to have to retrace their tracks? IMO it's a matter of what they CAN do, not what they WANT to do.
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Post by traderdennis on Aug 5, 2018 10:17:12 GMT -5
I agree, and the only thingto do is to go back to Deerfield, but why would they spend all this time getting out from under their thumb just to have to retrace their tracks? IMO it's a matter of what they CAN do, not what they WANT to do. When the company negotiated paying in stock instead of cash to Deerfield, dad required mnkd to alternate between short and long term tranches. The company would of been better to use the ATM and pay df cash in hindsight.
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Post by bilyblob on Aug 5, 2018 10:39:28 GMT -5
Doesn't the new ins formularys come out in september? What if there is a significant shift on the side of afrezza? cgms got more coverage,didn't they? partership with a small company with all the groundwork done for the upcoming "SOC" is hard to pin down equity wise,it IS a reality show,dont wanna be the guy on the corner shoutin out a blow horn "SHORTS RUN FOR THE HILLS!!!" but stranger things have happened,i WATCHED as it happenned when kbio went from like a buck to $40 in a day to then settle at $30-$34 fr the NEXT couple days,plenty of time to have closed the deal before the sec did it at $23,walkin away with a tophat full of cash,ANOTHER reality tv show
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Post by tinkusr8215 on Aug 5, 2018 10:40:00 GMT -5
Afrezza revenue for the last quarter was less than 1/5 the amount of cash burn. Back of the napkin math would equate about 2500 to 3000 scripts per week for cash flow break even. The company is light yeRa away from that number. Light years sounds a little harsh. A country mile sounds more like it. Weekly revenue just as the 2nd quarter started was $499k (and spent a lot of time weekly in the $500k's. It ended the quarter with the week ending 6/29 at $720k. An $862k week was just printed. If this moves to $1M a week as a run rate by some time in the 4th quarter and a reasonable (not hockey stick) growth rate is maintained in 2019, $2M a week by the end of 2019 puts the company in a cash flow positive run rate by the end of next year (IMO, of course). Who knows what delta Brazil or Tanner can bring to that equation? Anyway, I stand by my opinion how much closer cash flow positive is if they have truly begun to figure out the recipe and continue solving insurance. I think we will get there on a fast horse in a years time versus needing that Starship you were talking about. are you quoting weekly revenues reported by bloomberg using the script numbers? Mannkind gets about 48% of those.
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Post by falconquest on Aug 5, 2018 17:39:37 GMT -5
The talk of MNKD failing is garbage. Based on his comments, Mike has a plan regarding cash. We just don't know what it is. Hopefully, we'll hear in the next week or two. The flash crash yesterday was an anomaly that was not based on any negative news but more likely typical wall street corruption which should come as no surprise to MNKD longs. IMO, Mannkind and Afrezza will continue to move forward, scripts and cash will rise and the pps will recover just as fast as it dropped. The chairman of the board did not invest a million of his own cash at $6 a share with the possibility it might vaporize in the coming months. This story is about to enter a new chapter and it won't be seven or eleven. I believe the "flash crash" was actually market sentiment. What's going to move this company forward? Having a plan is not acceptable, results are what the street wants and to date, since approval, Mannkind has had no results. I'm not saying that couldn't change but to date history has not been favorable for Mannkind.
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Post by agedhippie on Aug 5, 2018 18:29:56 GMT -5
The talk of MNKD failing is garbage. Based on his comments, Mike has a plan regarding cash. We just don't know what it is. Hopefully, we'll hear in the next week or two. The flash crash yesterday was an anomaly that was not based on any negative news but more likely typical wall street corruption which should come as no surprise to MNKD longs. IMO, Mannkind and Afrezza will continue to move forward, scripts and cash will rise and the pps will recover just as fast as it dropped. The chairman of the board did not invest a million of his own cash at $6 a share with the possibility it might vaporize in the coming months. This story is about to enter a new chapter and it won't be seven or eleven. I believe the "flash crash" was actually market sentiment. What's going to move this company forward? Having a plan is not acceptable, results are what the street wants and to date, since approval, Mannkind has had no results. I'm not saying that couldn't change but to date history has not been favorable for Mannkind. Management put Mannkind on the ledge with a combination of missed guidance, and an obvious hole in the cashflow. On Friday someone simply gave a push. Once scenario is that the market is expecting dilution and some of the big boys don't see the need to take that hit. After all if their action takes the price down further than it normally would (this drop + dilution) it just makes it cheaper to get back in after the dilution.
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