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Post by hammer on Aug 11, 2018 15:21:17 GMT -5
I actually wrote a whole thesis but the server did not respond and accept it. I'll summarize.
J. Paul Getty has been quoted as saying when you owe the bank $100 dollars you have a problem. When you owe the bank $100 million the bank has a problem.
If you believe the short thesis, that Mannkind is worthless then our bank Deerfield certainly has a problem. If Deerfield believes in Al Mann's vision and the stars will align in next few quarters, our bank will make it happen.
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Post by mytakeonit on Aug 11, 2018 15:42:07 GMT -5
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 11, 2018 15:56:59 GMT -5
I actually wrote a whole thesis but the server did not respond and accept it. I'll summarize. J. Paul Getty has been quoted as saying when you owe the bank $100 dollars you have a problem. When you owe the bank $100 million the bank has a problem. If you believe the short thesis, that Mannkind is worthless then our bank Deerfield certainly has a problem. If Deerfield believes in Al Mann's vision and the stars will align in next few quarters, our bank will make it happen. Exact thoughts/reasons why the Chinese would never sell off their total holdings of US Treasuries (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-chinas-treasury-hoard-isnt-much-of-a-weapon-in-trade-spat-with-us-2018-04-06), that analogy is what is used often when discussing how much US debt China owns. MNKD has been a cash cow for DF, so they most likely will continue to milk it until MNKD somehow can free itself from DF's bossom. Hammer that's a quote that I always have liked, it's also the premise of what happened in the banking crisis behind the too big to fail, the banks had a HUGE problem when the housing market was built on air, ahh pictures of Hank Paulson on his knees begging Nancy Pelosi for the bailout....world was about to fall off the cliff, and boy did she make him beg, better stop there lol.  |
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Post by peppy on Aug 11, 2018 16:01:35 GMT -5
I actually wrote a whole thesis but the server did not respond and accept it. I'll summarize. J. Paul Getty has been quoted as saying when you owe the bank $100 dollars you have a problem. When you owe the bank $100 million the bank has a problem. If you believe the short thesis, that Mannkind is worthless then our bank Deerfield certainly has a problem. If Deerfield believes in Al Mann's vision and the stars will align in next few quarters, our bank will make it happen. Exact thoughts/reasons why the Chinese would never sell off their total holdings of US Treasuries (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-chinas-treasury-hoard-isnt-much-of-a-weapon-in-trade-spat-with-us-2018-04-06), that analogy is what is used often when discussing how much US debt China owns. MNKD has been a cash cow for DF, so they most likely will continue to milk it until MNKD somehow can free itself from DF's bossom. Hammer that's a quote that I always have liked, it's also the premise of what happened in the banking crisis behind the too big to fail, the banks had a HUGE problem when the housing market was built on air, ahh pictures of Hank Paulson on his knees begging Nancy Pelosi for the bailout....world was about to fall off the cliff, and boy did she make him beg, better stop there lol. and the 3 trillion printed to bail them out was printed with interest attached. "If you want to play, you have to pay." |
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Post by agedhippie on Aug 11, 2018 16:07:41 GMT -5
I actually wrote a whole thesis but the server did not respond and accept it. I'll summarize. J. Paul Getty has been quoted as saying when you owe the bank $100 dollars you have a problem. When you owe the bank $100 million the bank has a problem. If you believe the short thesis, that Mannkind is worthless then our bank Deerfield certainly has a problem. If Deerfield believes in Al Mann's vision and the stars will align in next few quarters, our bank will make it happen. That doesn't quite line up. What Paul Getty's quote meant was that when owed Deerfield a lot of money DF had to play (relatively) nice. However when it gets towards the end of the debt and there is not much left DF can play hardball and wring out the last bit of money because the loss in a default is so much less. |
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Post by sweedee79 on Aug 11, 2018 16:08:16 GMT -5
Deerfield is a hedge fund? Am I correct? Some here have suggested that a hedge fund could be behind the shorting.. so perhaps they have already made millions..
I have no idea.. but I sure hope your thesis is correct..
Being invested in MNKD has made me somewhat cynical and frustrated.. frustrated in our medical system .. our banks.. the SEC.. the FDA.. etc...
I do however believe in our management team and their integrity.. And their will to get this done..
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Post by pat on Aug 11, 2018 16:26:34 GMT -5
Think Getty was saying the bank doesn’t care about you or your $100.
But if you owe $100mm, and probably represent a significant portion of the banks loan assets, the bank will work to keep you, and itself, afloat.
We are squarely in the first camp with DF. We owe them less than $100 and DF will wring as much blood from the MNKD stone as it can.
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Post by seanismorris on Aug 11, 2018 16:47:51 GMT -5
I actually wrote a whole thesis but the server did not respond and accept it. I'll summarize. J. Paul Getty has been quoted as saying when you owe the bank $100 dollars you have a problem. When you owe the bank $100 million the bank has a problem. If you believe the short thesis, that Mannkind is worthless then our bank Deerfield certainly has a problem. If Deerfield believes in Al Mann's vision and the stars will align in next few quarters, our bank will make it happen. I’m pretty sure Deerfield has structured their relationship with MannKind as win-win, individuals and banks (to a lesser extent) don’t have those options. |
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Post by cretin11 on Aug 13, 2018 15:39:46 GMT -5
In before this thread is closed. Unfortunately, the OP's premise is badly (and sadly) flawed.
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Post by xanet on Aug 13, 2018 16:11:25 GMT -5
In before this thread is closed. Unfortunately, the OP's premise is badly (and sadly) flawed. It would be helpful if you were to include some content in your post. What is flawed, and how is that "bad" and "sad"? |
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Post by cretin11 on Aug 13, 2018 16:21:19 GMT -5
That's a fair point xanet. Basically I disagree with the premise that if MNKD is worthless then Deerfield has a bigger problem than MNKD. As pointed out by several posters above, Deerfield is making money on this relationship regardless of what happens to MNKD. I suspect that Deerfield would much prefer for MNKD to succeed, however they are hedging so much that they're gonna be fine either way.
I said "sad" because if the OP's premise is the basis for his or anyone else's optimism, I consider that sad and misguided.
I could also use the word sad to describe my own financial position in MNKD. I still believe in Afrezza and haven't sold a single share, am in it for the long haul. Even if it takes five years to just get back to break even, i will be "glad" and lots of other positive adjectives. If my position ever ends up in the black, the appropriate adjectives will "elated" "jubilant" "ecstatic"...
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Post by tomtabb on Aug 13, 2018 18:21:08 GMT -5
I actually wrote a whole thesis but the server did not respond and accept it. I'll summarize. J. Paul Getty has been quoted as saying when you owe the bank $100 dollars you have a problem. When you owe the bank $100 million the bank has a problem. If you believe the short thesis, that Mannkind is worthless then our bank Deerfield certainly has a problem. If Deerfield believes in Al Mann's vision and the stars will align in next few quarters, our bank will make it happen. Couldn't someone argue that MNKD is acting contrary to your argument. To me, following your premise, then MNKD shouldn't have made any effort to repay Deerfield's loans. They should have just demanded deferral of any payments whatsoever until 2023. If Deerfield threatened forcing them into bankruptcy, MNKD could have said, "if you want it, take it." Then, hopefully, Deerfield would have folded and agreed to new terms. As it stands now, the bank Deerfield is mostly repaid and doesn't have much of a problem left, and MNKD has lost most of its debt "leverage." Now if it wants, Deerfield can play even harder ball. |
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Post by figglebird on Aug 13, 2018 19:49:28 GMT -5
that is true... similar in a micro(hopefully) way - though you never know... the valuation question has to do with certain intrinsic variables native to mankind and steinier's TS - in a way that creates more capital in theory than what is currently owed and so forth... then again you also have Steinbeck's pearl scenario at play potentially... I believe, like all things, this will continue to evolve... remember - their options are also worthless in bankruptcy and if they were to stay on would be a breach to shareholders.
cost to bring a new drug to mkt is approx. 13 b
this has kicked out allot of money in all different directions
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Post by figglebird on Aug 13, 2018 19:56:22 GMT -5
Except the key wording that they are mostly paid - you think you are the only person(including lenders who understand equasion… do you know how much money TRUMP got for his 3rd ac hotel, much less his first two... there are lenders who will gladly pay off debt - mc is the one to find em w dk as collaterall… if anything the sticking point is the milestone rights... that worse case scenario can be negotiated to upside for df - in the event no deals come to fruition...
go
it
alone
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Post by mnkdfann on Aug 13, 2018 20:08:14 GMT -5
Except the key wording that they are mostly paid - you think you are the only person(including lenders who understand equasion… do you know how much money TRUMP got for his 3rd ac hotel, much less his first two... there are lenders who will gladly pay off debt - mc is the one to find em w dk as collaterall… if anything the sticking point is the milestone rights... that worse case scenario can be negotiated to upside for df - in the event no deals come to fruition... go it alone I can live with your spelling, but I need a right round bracket for closure!!!!! |
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