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Post by Clement on Aug 14, 2018 7:43:51 GMT -5
Sum of the Parts >$975 million Mike C said in the conference call: “I believe we are undervalued when I look at the sum of the parts. We have over 800 patents as well as hard assets such as our Danbury infrastructure that alone are worth close to $200 million. We have over $2 billion of nonoperating losses on our balance sheet, which will save us over $400 million in future taxes. Additionally, the market has put a valuation on an improved Treprostinil program when you look at the IPO last week of Liquidia via a single product immolation company at $175 million. And to top it off, we have an FDA-approved asset in Afrezza, which is shaping up to likely become the next standard of care for mealtime insulin. Al Mann was a true visionary, and I believe the sum of the parts will start to reflect the true market value once we finish up the recapitalization, which I will provide some clarity on today.” Read more: mnkd.proboards.com/thread/10350/question-conference-call#ixzz5O9RFyrEN Let's figure out what this means: 800 patents $ ? Danbury infrastructure and other hard assets $200 million Non-operating losses of $2B $400 million TreT (valuation per Liquidia) $175 million Afrezza * $200 million Sum of the parts > $975 million *gross sales in 2018 = $40 million. Ratio of price to gross sales equals 5. |
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Post by cjc04 on Aug 14, 2018 7:53:20 GMT -5
“I believe the sum of the parts will start to reflect the true market value once we finish up the recapitalization”
Interesting the way he said that.
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Post by matt on Aug 14, 2018 7:56:08 GMT -5
The flaw in that argument is that the whole is not equal to the sum of the pieces. For example, Danbury would cost $200 million to replace but the fire sale value to an unrelated third-party that did not own Afrezza is in the $20-30 million range (most pharmaceutical plants have a resale value that is a small percentage of the replacement cost so this is not unusual). Similarly, the operating loss carryforwards cannot be sold or transferred due to the operation of Internal Revenue Code section 380 except in the case of a Type G reorganization which only happens in bankruptcy; that is not helpful to current shareholders.
I could go on, but the sum of the pieces approach does not work because it is not possible to sell off key assets and still have the business running. Sell Danbury and the company can no longer make Afrezza (or TreT for that matter), but if you tie the hands of the party purchasing Danbury so that they have an obligation to make Afrezza then they are not going to pay $200 million for the assets. Whatever the sum of the parts is worth, don't forget that the first $270 million belongs to the creditors and not the shareholders. That puts the enterprise value at $270 + $175 = $445 million, which is probably not too far from reality as a going concern.
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Post by Clement on Aug 14, 2018 8:15:26 GMT -5
Mike is not talking bankruptcy and fire sale!
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Post by mnholdem on Aug 14, 2018 8:28:06 GMT -5
Really flawed rebuttal Matt. Where did Mike mention MannKind’s value in regards to a M&A? He’s referring to MannKind’s being undervalued in terms of today’s stock price.
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Post by sellhighdrinklow on Aug 14, 2018 8:45:59 GMT -5
Look at who gave Matt thumbs up. ....of course.
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Post by peppy on Aug 14, 2018 8:49:54 GMT -5
alrighty then. in the world I live in, in the country I live in, the health care system we have.... what does it value? better health for the people that pay for the system?  |
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Post by agedhippie on Aug 14, 2018 9:11:53 GMT -5
Look at who gave Matt thumbs up. ....of course. Absolutely. The value to Mannkind of the plant is not the same as the value of the plant, including in a leaseback, if sold to anyone who is not manufacturing Afrezza. Likewise the fact that the tax loss is not as valuable as it appears has been explained repeatedly. That's before we get to the question of the value of Afrezza which is predicated on it's sales - in other words once it has a clear path to profit you don't really want to sell it. Now the value of Mannkind as a whole is a different matter - then these items have value. |
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Post by cjm18 on Aug 14, 2018 9:42:27 GMT -5
Where does Matt’s 270 come from?
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Post by straightly on Aug 14, 2018 9:56:25 GMT -5
Sum of the Parts >$975 million Mike C said in the conference call: “I believe we are undervalued when I look at the sum of the parts. We have over 800 patents as well as hard assets such as our Danbury infrastructure that alone are worth close to $200 million. We have over $2 billion of nonoperating losses on our balance sheet, which will save us over $400 million in future taxes. Additionally, the market has put a valuation on an improved Treprostinil program when you look at the IPO last week of Liquidia via a single product immolation company at $175 million. And to top it off, we have an FDA-approved asset in Afrezza, which is shaping up to likely become the next standard of care for mealtime insulin. Al Mann was a true visionary, and I believe the sum of the parts will start to reflect the true market value once we finish up the recapitalization, which I will provide some clarity on today.” Read more: mnkd.proboards.com/thread/10350/question-conference-call#ixzz5O9RFyrEN Let's figure out what this means: 800 patents $ ? Danbury infrastructure and other hard assets $200 million Non-operating losses of $2B $400 million TreT (valuation per Liquidia) $175 million Afrezza * $200 million Sum of the parts > $975 million *gross sales in 2018 = $40 million. Ratio of price to gross sales equals 5. Did he provide the clarification as promised? If so, did you catch it? "which I will provide some clarity on today." |
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Post by uvula on Aug 14, 2018 10:04:24 GMT -5
(The real sum of the parts) * (some discount due to possibility of dilution) = current market cap.
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Post by MnkdWASmyRtrmntPlan on Aug 14, 2018 11:03:41 GMT -5
Fire Sale valuation is for Bankruptcies, which is not currently under consideration.
But for the sake of argument, whether you place that Fire Sale value at a $Billion, $800, $600, or even $400M, it is still more than today’s market cap of $152M.
And once the Capitalization is worked out, and the rest of the world realizes that we are a going concern, a $billion will be the basement valuation. By my quick calculation, a billion would be a little over $7 SP.
And when we approach breakeven, the SP rocket will launch 🚀
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Post by tomtabb on Aug 14, 2018 11:22:02 GMT -5
The only thing that matters to me at this time is that, at the current price of $1.10, apparently the world thinks it's worth only about 170 million dollars.
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Post by radgray68 on Aug 14, 2018 11:23:12 GMT -5
However you want to figure the company value, remember Mike convinced investors of our $900 million value just 10 months ago when we got an infusion at $6. Bidding for even the tiniest piece of us now begins at $6 because we're just going to get stronger from here IMO. Ex-U.S. sales beginning next year, TreT advancing to P3, and don't forget the chance for pediatric approval. There are a lot of positive, value-increasing catalysts coming in the years ahead.
The market valued us at $4 Billion before the FDA criminally ruined our label. Now that we've cleaned up that holy mess, I believe we're headed back there. But, the kicker here is, by the time we get Afrezza to break even, we'll have TreT ready or almost ready too. Look, forget selling the company any time soon. Ain't gonna happen. Management uses a 5 year time line in their presentations for a good reason. Value has to be extracted the old-fashioned way, we've got to earn it. It just takes time and execution of the business plan that management laid out.
full disclosure: I'm all in on MNKD here. No leap options this time because the shares are just too darned cheap.IMHO BTW, I paid between $6 and $60 for some signed Shaquille O'Neal rookie cards a while back. They were just too darned cheap
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Post by centralcoastinvestor on Aug 14, 2018 11:45:25 GMT -5
The only thing that matters to me at this time is that, at the current price of $1.10, apparently the world thinks it's worth only about 170 million dollars. I disagree. The current share price and market value is the result of intense and unrelenting shorting of the stock. |
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