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Post by sportsrancho on May 31, 2019 12:13:57 GMT -5
So what are you saying Traderdennis? Do you believe we are in a death spiral? Should MC be embracing talks with VDEX? It is starting to get close. I think mgmt was banking on the $1.60 warrants being exercised. I think there is only a 25% chance they will be exercised. If the price remains flat after a new round of financing which will happen late in 2019 or early 2020, I think the price would be below a buck. The longer Brazil takes, the mystery molecule and the additional payments, the more credibility MC looses. It could be ugly. This is just reality unless there’s a surprise that brings the stock price up and they can raise money at a higher level. Therefore exercising the warrants. Mike should be in bracing talks with anyone! The go it alone thing was flawed from the beginning IMO. |
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Post by mnkdfann on May 31, 2019 12:16:36 GMT -5
Would be great if we hit $67M next year, but that would require NRx to break out of it's current stagnant situation and start growing substantially. Haven't read SO recently, so can't speculate on validity of his prediction methodology. reading the SO articles, the 67M includes UTHR payments. SO is not predicting Afrezza revenues of 67M The articles are locked so I cannot check, but what you wrote (seems) to contradict what SO wrote himself in the latest (unlocked) comments: "You are not looking at the numbers very well. 2,000 scripts a week at an assumed net of $650 each brings in $1.3 million a week, which translates to $67 million a year. They burn about $90 to $100 million per year." |
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Post by mannmade on May 31, 2019 12:23:08 GMT -5
How about going by what we know as reported to start as our base? Meaning Trx this week was 742 and gross revenue was $1,161,500.
$1,161,500 / 742 = Gross $1,565.36 per script
Assume 50% for net and $1,565.36 / 2 = $782.68 Net revenue per script
Now take $782.68 x 2,000 and you get $1,565,363.88 Net Revenue per week
$1,565,363.88 x 52 = $81,398,921.80 in Net Annual Revenue.
This does not account for any discounts or other factors tha might impact revenue.
Voila!
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Post by traderdennis on May 31, 2019 12:27:54 GMT -5
How about going by what we know as reported to start as our base? Meaning Trx this week was 742 and gross revenue was $1,161,500. $1,161,500 / 742 = Gross $1,565.36 per script Assume 50% for net and $1,565.36 / 2 = $782.68 Net revenue per script Now take $782.68 x 2,000 and you get $1,565,363.88 Net Revenue per week $1,565,363.88 x 52 = $81,398,921.80 in Net Annual Revenue. This does not account for any discounts or other factors tha might impact revenue. Voila! I don't dispute the math. I just don't remember SO saying scripts would be running at 2K per week for 2020. |
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Post by sweedee79 on May 31, 2019 12:29:01 GMT -5
It is starting to get close. I think mgmt was banking on the $1.60 warrants being exercised. I think there is only a 25% chance they will be exercised. If the price remains flat after a new round of financing which will happen late in 2019 or early 2020, I think the price would be below a buck. The longer Brazil takes, the mystery molecule and the additional payments, the more credibility MC looses. It could be ugly. This is just reality unless there’s a surprise that brings the stock price up and they can raise money at a higher level. Therefore exercising the warrants. Mike should be in bracing talks with anyone! The go it alone thing was flawed from the beginning IMO. What was flawed from the beginning was the label.. trial designs etc.. We have been going it alone because there isn't anyone other than Vdex . I don't agree with all of this FUD that has been going around.. I certainly don't care for some of the things management has been doing.. But I also don't care for the mud slinging.. If I was management I would pull away too.. Fact of the matter none of us really knows what is going on.. so there is no way to be certain of anything.. or what the reality is.. |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on May 31, 2019 12:30:58 GMT -5
How about going by what we know as reported to start as our base? Meaning Trx this week was 742 and gross revenue was $1,161,500. $1,161,500 / 742 = Gross $1,565.36 per script Assume 50% for net and $1,565.36 / 2 = $782.68 Net revenue per script Now take $782.68 x 2,000 and you get $1,565,363.88 Net Revenue per week $1,565,363.88 x 52 = $81,398,921.80 in Net Annual Revenue. This does not account for any discounts or other factors tha might impact revenue. Voila! Hey Mr. Global Moderator, How about getting this thread cleaned up and back on track....you have the trolls, etc. that have successfully hijacked it. It started with posts about the bus driver's article and now references to SO's article...we need some disinfectant to clean up the germs. Time to turn on the light and scatter the roaches, thanks in advance my friend  |
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Post by mannmade on May 31, 2019 12:31:46 GMT -5
There is a saying that I am fond of... "Kill then with Kindness..." In this case such kindness could come in the form of more transparency and communication from Mannkind. It would go a long ways in my opinion, especially during times like this.
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Post by sportsrancho on May 31, 2019 12:39:46 GMT -5
This is just reality unless there’s a surprise that brings the stock price up and they can raise money at a higher level. Therefore exercising the warrants. Mike should be in bracing talks with anyone! The go it alone thing was flawed from the beginning IMO. What was flawed from the beginning was the label.. trial designs etc.. We have been going it alone because there isn't anyone other than Vdex . I don't agree with all of this FUD that has been going around.. I certainly don't care for some of the things management has been doing.. But I also don't care for the mud slinging.. If I was management I would pull away too.. Fact of the matter none of us really knows what is going on.. so there is no way to be certain of anything.. or what the reality is.. The stock price is the reality, that’s what keeps us from getting the financing. I agree with Nate that dilution is not a bad thing for a biotech company my feeling just is that it’s going to be hard at this price to get it. And I’m not one of those people that says “they” don’t know anymore than we do. I think Nate knows more than I do, but I have to tell the truth about how I feel because I have many close friends that read my posts every day and I’m not going to do a disservice to them by not being honest. Reality is we don’t have enough money for a large enough sales team and on top of that by advertising we’re taking money away from TS ..there just plain is not enough money, that’s the reality. What the reality is about management and all the mudslinging that’s going to come out in the wash. I have no comment. |
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Post by sweedee79 on May 31, 2019 12:57:07 GMT -5
What was flawed from the beginning was the label.. trial designs etc.. We have been going it alone because there isn't anyone other than Vdex . I don't agree with all of this FUD that has been going around.. I certainly don't care for some of the things management has been doing.. But I also don't care for the mud slinging.. If I was management I would pull away too.. Fact of the matter none of us really knows what is going on.. so there is no way to be certain of anything.. or what the reality is.. The stock price is the reality, that’s what keeps us from getting the financing. I agree with Nate that dilution is not a bad thing for a biotech company my feeling just is that it’s going to be hard at this price to get it. And I’m not one of those people that says “they” don’t know anymore than we do. I think Nate knows more than I do, but I have to tell the truth about how I feel because I have many close friends that read my posts every day and I’m not going to do a disservice to them by not being honest. Reality is we don’t have enough money for a large enough sales team and on top of that by advertising we’re taking money away from TS ..there just plain is not enough money, that’s the reality. What the reality is about management and all the mudslinging that’s going to come out in the wash. I have no comment. If you know things about management I think we all have a right to know since we all have thousands of our hard earned dollars wrapped up in this stock..Wtf is going on? |
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Post by ktim on May 31, 2019 13:06:52 GMT -5
This is what Spencer wrote in the comments: "You are not looking at the numbers very well. 2,000 scripts a week at an assumed net of $650 each brings in $1.3 million a week, which translates to $67 million a year. They burn about $90 to $100 million per year." Are you expecting $33+ million next year from UTHR? Nope..I’m expecting it THIS year Has to be something behind this silence..no? You seem to believe in an anti Occam's Razor... when presented with a fact, it is the most complex "something hidden behind the scenes" reason that is correct. |
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Post by sportsrancho on May 31, 2019 13:18:14 GMT -5
The stock price is the reality, that’s what keeps us from getting the financing. I agree with Nate that dilution is not a bad thing for a biotech company my feeling just is that it’s going to be hard at this price to get it. And I’m not one of those people that says “they” don’t know anymore than we do. I think Nate knows more than I do, but I have to tell the truth about how I feel because I have many close friends that read my posts every day and I’m not going to do a disservice to them by not being honest. Reality is we don’t have enough money for a large enough sales team and on top of that by advertising we’re taking money away from TS ..there just plain is not enough money, that’s the reality. What the reality is about management and all the mudslinging that’s going to come out in the wash. I have no comment. If you know things about management I think we all have a right to know since we all have thousands of our hard earned dollars wrapped up in this stock..Wtf is going on? I do not know things about Mannkind’s management. I was assuming you meant all the stuff on StockTwits about Mike needing to go, and there’s people on here that have that same opinion. I don’t spend very much time thinking about that nor do I have any idea who they would get to replaced him. I hate even going there. It’s performance-based I believe. But there are many willing to wait another six months and see how everything plays out. There are people calling for his head and a ground swelling to bring Matt back. But I have no idea if that could become reality:-) And I don’t really think it’s important, what’s important is getting Afrezza making strides, or get it into the right hands that allow it to flourish. Nate mentioned partnership or sale. But is looking to the next six months and then will summarize again. |
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Post by apidistra on May 31, 2019 13:30:37 GMT -5
A lot of disinformation about this company evident on both on this platform and elsewhere online. If one reads enough, the patterns of speech, grammar, punctuation, word choice etc leads me to the conclusion that there is a small number of people posting an inordinate amount of primarily negative opinion, rumor and hearsay. I read it, question the assertions and ask the question, who is this person really and what is he after? Be skeptical and compel the poster to justify the comment with evidence. If he can't, move on.
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Post by sportsrancho on May 31, 2019 13:46:01 GMT -5
If I had extra money I would buy shares at this price because I feel like there’s more positive that could come out than negative, but I’m assuming people aren’t buying because they’re afraid of dilution or waiting for it and then will buy lower. So here’s hoping MK is right and we get some surprises. I think he knows more than I do too:-) Big thanks to both him and Nate for their continual coverage and optimism!
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Post by buyitonsale on May 31, 2019 13:53:28 GMT -5
Here is what I am reading between the lines...
My core long position is not affected by current SP watsoever until I sell at my target ( most likely after pediatric approval). Yes, pediatric approval will happen.
My short term long position (55K shares) is waiting for Brazil and second molecule news. I expect to make a decent profit once we are there and Deerfield is paid off.
Shorts are grasping at straws because they are too greedy to have a target or they are fake shorts (only here to spread FUD). Have a target boys and girls and make some money while you can.
Option investors are too nervous to think clearly, well.. because options expire. It's a tough position to be in...
Looking forward to $1.5M weekly sales numbers in Q3.
GLTAL
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Post by sweedee79 on May 31, 2019 14:07:10 GMT -5
Here's what I think.. We've been here before.. I don't believe the stock is circling the drain.. I don't agree with Trader Dennis..
Or all of the other negativity.. I do trust Nate.. not MK so much.. but in the end whatever I do that's on me..
I bought more a few months ago when I was convinced the stock was going up.. now I'm down quite a bit.. there is no way to predict this stock with certainty. too many pump and dump etc . Now it's all negativity and FUD.. if I were to make a prediction I would say buy now.. I own more than I should right now so I'm hanging tight where I am..
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