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Post by joeypotsandpans on Feb 26, 2015 13:37:11 GMT -5
Since these are now "in the family" thought they were worth mentioning for those that are interested:
SNY recent upleg nicely filled a gap left back on 10/16 at 50 which coincidentally was just under the 200d MA, as an fyi there remains another gap at 52.62 when it took its dive back on 10/27, today's turn back from that resistance is likely to have it first retest the 50d in the near future which currently sits about two points lower at 46.87.
Ironically, AMPH at the same time has put in a new weekly high on monday and continues to trade just under it...interesting as they are the supplier of what SNY/MNKD anticipates in insulin needs. Fun stuff, for me anyway lol...and in case you were wondering I still am a big believer in the pair trade even more so with NVO approaching/within its all time high of 49.11
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Post by cretin11 on Feb 27, 2015 8:05:12 GMT -5
Thanks joeypots. Now that we're past the quarterly report, looks unlikely we'll see any major catalysts in near future. So from a purely TA perspective, does your interpretation of the charts lead to any short or long term predictions of where share price is headed? ok getting back to your question relative to shorter term technically speaking I think we are bound between the 50d and 200d MA's where strong support would lie down in the low 6 area (50d) and near term resistance in the low 7 area (200d) with my bias currently towards it grinding up as we continue to get increasing positive scripts numbers. Wow 86M is all I can say  Thanks joey. I'm unschooled in technical analysis, so sorry if this is an elementary question, but is it fairly typical to expect a stock's share price to stay within the range of the 50d and 200d MAs? |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Feb 27, 2015 9:28:38 GMT -5
ok getting back to your question relative to shorter term technically speaking I think we are bound between the 50d and 200d MA's where strong support would lie down in the low 6 area (50d) and near term resistance in the low 7 area (200d) with my bias currently towards it grinding up as we continue to get increasing positive scripts numbers. Wow 86M is all I can say Thanks joey. I'm unschooled in technical analysis, so sorry if this is an elementary question, but is it fairly typical to expect a stock's share price to stay within the range of the 50d and 200d MAs? Not hardly, if it is in a strong uptrend it should be trading above both averages with the 50d being above the 200d and conversely in a weak downtrend it would be trading below the 50d with the 50d having crossed negatively below the 200d...in MNKD's case right now after the downtrend from the partnership announcement we've flattened and traded sideways for awhile and more recently have turned up so now the 50d has turned up and hopefully is poised to head back to crossing the 200d in the next couple of months or so....life for a trader would be fairly simple if it was typically the way you stated |
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Post by chicagpete on Mar 5, 2015 16:23:06 GMT -5
I was reviewing history of this thread. Current trends look obviously poor. Our bullish analyst - Nate Pyle -stated this week that 5.75 is key area to hold for longs. Joey - what does your crystal ball see? Where has Trendriver been ?
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Mar 5, 2015 17:45:01 GMT -5
I was reviewing history of this thread. Current trends look obviously poor. Our bullish analyst - Nate Pyle -stated this week that 5.75 is key area to hold for longs. Joey - what does your crystal ball see? Where has Trendriver been ? My crystal ball says maybe you should re think your position for health reasons....not healthy to be in Zombie mode, btw I hope you weren't thinking it was you I was referring to in the lending shares thread ....as far as the technicals will let you know my thoughts after the close tomorrow, you should know by now I like to see weekly closes unless I was day trading obviously |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Mar 10, 2015 12:33:13 GMT -5
A close today above 5.56 would make for one nice outside bullish reversal candle on the daily charts, rejecting the low s/p we saw at the open...the volume today in the May 5 calls was impressive as well...lets see how it plays out, all this while the broader market gets crushed, how do you think it looks on those percentage gainer lists compared to the rest of the market/biotechs today |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Mar 10, 2015 13:32:30 GMT -5
Bit of a strange phenomenon that happens on these big down days in the broader market....looks like money rotates into the biotech ETF's, what also seems to tend to happen, is the "out of favor" or shall I say "more heavily shorted" ones seem to go positive ie., obviously MNKD, but also INO,ARNA,AGEN,NBS,PRAN etc...yet some of the larger biotechs are in the red, so it makes you wonder if the shorts (who are most likely short the overall market in general as their mindset is valuations are out of whack) take some of their profits and roll them into the positions they would like to get covered...just thinking out loud so to speak...seems to be more than a coincidence as I've noticed it several times when the market has these big down days. As an fyi, I actually put in a bid for a bear spread on the XBI a little bit ago when it topped the 228 area looking to get the Apr 225 puts and sell the Apr 215 puts for a net purchase price of 3.20 but doesn't look like it's gonna happen now...will leave for day limit.
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Post by savzak on Mar 10, 2015 13:43:30 GMT -5
Bit of a strange phenomenon that happens on these big down days in the broader market....looks like money rotates into the biotech ETF's, what also seems to tend to happen, is the "out of favor" or shall I say "more heavily shorted" ones seem to go positive ie., obviously MNKD, but also INO,ARNA,AGEN,NBS,PRAN etc...yet some of the larger biotechs are in the red, so it makes you wonder if the shorts (who are most likely short the overall market in general as their mindset is valuations are out of whack) take some of their profits and roll them into the positions they would like to get covered...just thinking out loud so to speak...seems to be more than a coincidence as I've noticed it several times when the market has these big down days. As an fyi, I actually put in a bid for a bear spread on the XBI a little bit ago when it topped the 228 area looking to get the Apr 225 puts and sell the Apr 215 puts for a net purchase price of 3.20 but doesn't look like it's gonna happen now...will leave for day limit. I choose to be more optimistic in my speculation. I imagine the week 5 script numbers are leaking. And they're GOOD. |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Mar 10, 2015 13:49:58 GMT -5
Bit of a strange phenomenon that happens on these big down days in the broader market....looks like money rotates into the biotech ETF's, what also seems to tend to happen, is the "out of favor" or shall I say "more heavily shorted" ones seem to go positive ie., obviously MNKD, but also INO,ARNA,AGEN,NBS,PRAN etc...yet some of the larger biotechs are in the red, so it makes you wonder if the shorts (who are most likely short the overall market in general as their mindset is valuations are out of whack) take some of their profits and roll them into the positions they would like to get covered...just thinking out loud so to speak...seems to be more than a coincidence as I've noticed it several times when the market has these big down days. As an fyi, I actually put in a bid for a bear spread on the XBI a little bit ago when it topped the 228 area looking to get the Apr 225 puts and sell the Apr 215 puts for a net purchase price of 3.20 but doesn't look like it's gonna happen now...will leave for day limit. I choose to be more optimistic in my speculation. I imagine the week 5 script numbers are leaking. And they're GOOD. At least one thing is for sure...there was some short covering today, this morning this was at 150k Symbol: MNKD Availability: 950'000Exchanges: NASDAQ |
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Post by cretin11 on Mar 10, 2015 22:31:14 GMT -5
Joey you mentioned that phenomenon where the overall market is way down but MNKD which has been pounded recently is up on the same day. When this has happened in the past, have you noticed any trends as to how things typically play out for MNKD in subsequent days?
And honestly I still question the validity of a classic technical analysis when it comes to MNKD, as this stock seems to march to the beat of a different drummer (or is it the shorts drumming). Despite that I appreciate your analysis, as the more perspectives we have, the better.
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Post by mnholdem on Mar 11, 2015 5:19:17 GMT -5
This would be an interesting discussion to have. Generally, I would agree that TA is not as reliable when pivotal events are imminent. Those are behind us today. Even an announcement of international drug applications would not likely cause an immediate rally because of the length of time for drug approval and launch prep.
Because of the dearth of news, I would think managers may find TA / algorithms are still useful tools. What I wonder is how having 90 million in short interest plays into the equation and how it factors in. The jump in short interest coincides with the GS downgrade. Now, will they begin covering and a rally begin, lead by an announced upgrade by other power firms?
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Post by chicagpete on Mar 11, 2015 6:02:40 GMT -5
A close today above 5.56 would make for one nice outside bullish reversal candle on the daily charts, rejecting the low s/p we saw at the open...the volume today in the May 5 calls was impressive as well...lets see how it plays out, all this while the broader market gets crushed, how do you think it looks on those percentage gainer lists compared to the rest of the market/biotechs today Joey - not sure if you saw post below - I pasted from a comment to George Rho's recent article - his crystal ball sees the same candle - I guess today if PPS closes over 5.56 we are back on bullish trend??? Please translate if possible. Between this and GWB's witch doctor - we should be ok.....lol
If one is interested in what the MNKD chart is telling us it is my pleasure to offer you my opinion. First remember that "The trend is your friend". In looking at a 52 week chart of MNKD -
Chart -
- setting new higher lows since Oct. 13th @ $4.65 / Dec. 15th @ $5.07 / Jan. 16th @ $5.28 / March 10 @ $5.34
- 4 new higher highs since Oct 13th
- RSI - is the 3rd lowest in the last 52 weeks
- MACD - slightly negative and lines are reversing
- Slow Sto - 2nd lowest in 52 weeks and lines crossed over today
- 200/50 day moving average lines are flattening
- Bollinger Bands are trending up slightly
Candlestick formation for tomorrow is -
"Bullish Piercing Line" / needs to be confirmed tomorrow
Catalysts -
- Social media with recent posts from Afrezzauser's amazing / life changing results. His dramatic results were amazing (you know what I mean if you read his tweet) and are not an enigma but as johnchowmd provides us with his Professional opinion will be the norm for those who can benefit from Afrezza. My thanks to Sam for his persistence and willingness to share his story! Social media is a very powerful tool.
- TV news coverage - another fantastic outlet and will spread across the country
- New CEO giving his direction and focus on this revolutionary insulin and delivery platform sometime next month.
- Weekly prescription numbers
- Belief in the product
We will see what happens tomorrow ..... will it confirm or not?
10 Mar, 06:19 PMReply
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Post by nugjuice on Mar 11, 2015 13:03:01 GMT -5
A close today above 5.56 would make for one nice outside bullish reversal candle on the daily charts, rejecting the low s/p we saw at the open...the volume today in the May 5 calls was impressive as well...lets see how it plays out, all this while the broader market gets crushed, how do you think it looks on those percentage gainer lists compared to the rest of the market/biotechs today Joey - not sure if you saw post below - I pasted from a comment to George Rho's recent article - his crystal ball sees the same candle - I guess today if PPS closes over 5.56 we are back on bullish trend??? Please translate if possible. Between this and GWB's witch doctor - we should be ok.....lol
If one is interested in what the MNKD chart is telling us it is my pleasure to offer you my opinion. First remember that "The trend is your friend". In looking at a 52 week chart of MNKD -
Chart -
- setting new higher lows since Oct. 13th @ $4.65 / Dec. 15th @ $5.07 / Jan. 16th @ $5.28 / March 10 @ $5.34
- 4 new higher highs since Oct 13th
- RSI - is the 3rd lowest in the last 52 weeks
- MACD - slightly negative and lines are reversing
- Slow Sto - 2nd lowest in 52 weeks and lines crossed over today
- 200/50 day moving average lines are flattening
- Bollinger Bands are trending up slightly
Candlestick formation for tomorrow is -
"Bullish Piercing Line" / needs to be confirmed tomorrow
Catalysts -
- Social media with recent posts from Afrezzauser's amazing / life changing results. His dramatic results were amazing (you know what I mean if you read his tweet) and are not an enigma but as johnchowmd provides us with his Professional opinion will be the norm for those who can benefit from Afrezza. My thanks to Sam for his persistence and willingness to share his story! Social media is a very powerful tool.
- TV news coverage - another fantastic outlet and will spread across the country
- New CEO giving his direction and focus on this revolutionary insulin and delivery platform sometime next month.
- Weekly prescription numbers
- Belief in the product
We will see what happens tomorrow ..... will it confirm or not?
10 Mar, 06:19 PMReply
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Good analysis. It seems to be a pretty reliable candle formations, too: thepatternsite.com/Piercing.htmlAnother note - pull up a 3 year weekly chart and draw a line from Nov '12 low to the bottom of this week's candle. That's a pretty compelling trend line. It actually intersects at $5.11 which is only $0.02 away from where it bounced. Also, since you mentioned RSI, we had a bullish RSI trend reversal on 3/10. RSI closed below 30 on 3/9, and back above 30 on 3/10. It also held above 30 for the close. Sometimes you need a couple days of closing above 30 to confirm, but it would indicate a short term trend reversal. Any close where the RSI is below the last low (28.47) would invalidate |
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Post by pktrump on Mar 11, 2015 14:26:15 GMT -5
Joey
Maybe its revenge or jealousy after dealing with MNKD shorts since 2008, but was looking at Intercept Biotech with a little over 1 million in rev, a 6+ B Mkt Cap and 200+ pps, as a good LT short. Have never bought a put option, but this looks intriguing on many fronts, esp the 2017 puts.?
I know this is off topic, but we are all investors here. Im a long and strong holder of MNKD shares, but if MNKD was viewed and valued the same as Intercept the MNKD pps would be enormous given respective mkt opportunities.
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Post by cybergym66 on Mar 13, 2015 10:07:05 GMT -5
Joey P&P,
I think you're theory that the shorts will take their market short gains to cover on MNKD might not be valid. Seems both a dropping pretty good today. I was hoping you "cracked the code!", but maybe you're not standing in the basement in the dark like last time!
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