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Post by joeypotsandpans on Jul 25, 2014 12:04:46 GMT -5
I've been using technical analysis for many years so thought I would share some thoughts here on a couple of things. In the short interest post I posted the link that was recently out for MNKD being in the top 30 shorted companies....I also pointed out in that it was the number one best returning stock of those 30 (around 82%). So understanding how price points work is important as it determines where certain support and resistance levels are and why they are there. Long term holders that have been in from the beginning have rode the stock anywhere from 20 down to under 2....some are exhausted but know they have been through the war and survived...they will not sell on these dips and haven't all along the way. They have seen the shorts side bash and create FUD all along the way...in turn they are use to days like yesterday. Then with the volume that took place the day before ADCOM and subsequently after the vote...there were some longs that panicked and exited the day before only to re establish positions after. This creates a price point of which we are visiting today the 8's again. The high post ADCOM was 8.08 and it wasn't visited until the period of shareholder's meeting. Once that area of resistance was taken out (which was a significant breach as it was also the highs from Aug '13 post the phase III results price point area) we proceeded to march up to the 11's....to me this is a natural pull back to the most recent resistant breakout area. A nice test of this and we should be back on our way to the highs post approval. Yes it was disappointing that the 50d MA did not hold the last day or two, but with the conditions ripe for the short side they knew it would blow stops out there and just below...thus the coordinated effort of the short side. We looked at the long perspective, now lets look at the short perspective....as mentioned just above they most likely have felt that it was a perfect storm opportunity with where volume and trading was to initiate this "bear raid"...keep in mind they have been fighting this the whole way up and now standing at 71 mill needed to put forth as much of an effort they could muster to try and mitigate damage...the problem for them is as the price comes down they are competing with existing committed longs adding and new players that have been waiting on the sidelines for better entry points...this is why they continue to fight an uphill battle. I put the 8.08-8.20 area as a significant support area where the pps should then resume its upward trajectory. Many people believe that you cannot use TA with a biotech that is going through its binary events stages...this may be true for smaller market cap entities but one with the size of MNKD's market cap it is definitely applicable IMO. On a side note, the S&P is putting in what looks to be known as a tri star top depending on the close today...these are rare trend reversal formations after a prolonged trend...if i'm correct it would play out with a possible decent correction into next week so this will help the shorts as well with some margin call pressure on the longs that have portfolio's on margin. This would most likely enable the price pressure down to the low 8's next week IMO without any news come Monday or Tuesday. As an FYI, I am buying SPY puts going into the close if it looks like that formation holds...here is a link to the formation mentioned: www.investopedia.com/terms/t/tri-star.asp the current chart looks potentially textbook to me at this point ;-) |
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Post by 4allthemarbles on Jul 25, 2014 14:26:22 GMT -5
Joey P,
Nice post. I'm not selling. I'm long.
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Post by coco on Jul 25, 2014 17:27:48 GMT -5
I think this is a great opportunity to add shares. I'm not letting these shorts intimidated me or scare me. They just helped me add to my position. I've been in since 1.98 so i am fine. I'm holding till the end be it next week or two years from now. Coco  |
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Post by seanismorris on Jul 26, 2014 18:10:49 GMT -5
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Post by rak5555 on Jul 26, 2014 18:50:39 GMT -5
Joey - this thread and your previous thread "A closer look...." are 2 of the best I have seen in a long time. You have answered a nagging question I have had, which is: if Karp is so disreputable and has no credibility, how can he have so much influence on my portfolio value? Lets not mistake unscrupulous greed for stupidity. Thanks.
I still think the most important piece of information from MNKD comes from the PR that hasn't been issued - the $50 million ATM still hasn't been tapped. In a prior life, I was a CFO and I can tell you that Pfeffer must be extremely confident in a partner and an up front partner payment to allow MNKD's cash position to run this low while he has a $50 million ATM at his finger tips.
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Post by seanismorris on Jul 27, 2014 12:00:20 GMT -5
Rak5555,
Your comment wasn't directed to me, but Mannkind isn't exactly strapped for cash. They will need the funds (from the partnership) for Afrezzas launch, but they will be fine for several months, and probably won't need to tap the ATM.
On July 18, 2014, following our receipt of approval of AFFREZZA® from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration on June 27, 2014 and the satisfaction of certain other conditions, Deerfield purchased the fourth and final tranche of 2019 notes (the “Tranche 4 Notes”) in the aggregate principal amount of $40.0 million in accordance with the terms of the Facility Agreement. Although the Facility Agreement provided for the conversion of a portion of the 2019 notes into shares of our common stock at Deerfield’s election (the “Conversion Option”), Deerfield previously exercised the Conversion Option in full and accordingly the Tranche 4 Notes are not convertible by their terms
The Shorts may push funding concerns, but I won't start getting concerned for at least a month or two. Mannkind has the funds to get the right deal done.
News that a hedge fund has a Short position isn't going to keep me up at night either. Now, if a major pharma comes out with a research report disparaging inhaled insulin, or we have another major drug getting approval I'll be a bit more concerned. But, from where I'm standing the pipeline for rapid acting mealtime insulins (or another type of potential competitor to Afrezza) looks incredibly weak.
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Jul 27, 2014 13:09:05 GMT -5
Rak5555, Your comment wasn't directed to me, but Mannkind isn't exactly strapped for cash. They will need the funds (from the partnership) for Afrezzas launch, but they will be fine for several months, and probably won't need to tap the ATM. On July 18, 2014, following our receipt of approval of AFFREZZA® from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration on June 27, 2014 and the satisfaction of certain other conditions, Deerfield purchased the fourth and final tranche of 2019 notes (the “Tranche 4 Notes”) in the aggregate principal amount of $40.0 million in accordance with the terms of the Facility Agreement. Although the Facility Agreement provided for the conversion of a portion of the 2019 notes into shares of our common stock at Deerfield’s election (the “Conversion Option”), Deerfield previously exercised the Conversion Option in full and accordingly the Tranche 4 Notes are not convertible by their terms The Shorts may push funding concerns, but I won't start getting concerned for at least a month or two. Mannkind has the funds to get the right deal done. News that a hedge fund has a Short position isn't going to keep me up at night either. Now, if a major pharma comes out with a research report disparaging inhaled insulin, or we have another major drug getting approval I'll be a bit more concerned. But, from where I'm standing the pipeline for rapid acting mealtime insulins (or another type of potential competitor to Afrezza) looks incredibly weak. Liked the claytrade video as it illustrates pretty much what I was referring to, do you subscribe to them? Also your excerpt from the release on Deerfield reiterates the the fact that they are along for the ride with Al, funny how you don't see anyone on CNBC bringing those talking points up. Wasn't it a couple of CC ago when they said they tapped into the other 50m ATM, it would be interesting to see if they did tap into the recent one with minimal dilution (nice if they did it at the highs) come any CC after the 2Q release...that would help cushion the coffers should their negotiations continue for a little bit longer and would further hurt the cash on hand argument. Hopefully, that is all a moot point with some bigger news in the next week or two, either way from a technical point of view it would be nice to recapture the 9.50 area which will put us back in line for testing the recent new highs as stated in the video. Thanks again for posting that link to it. |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Jul 28, 2014 18:14:10 GMT -5
We opened the day with a drop down to the lows of friday (8.35-.36) which held nicely (as rak5555 also alluded to in the short interest post). Once that held we traded nicely higher to finish in the 8.64 area. I don't want to get too technical here but there is a technical overlay you can put on both the daily and weekly chart called the Ichimoku Cloud. Using the link below: stockcharts.com/h-sc/uiwill take you to stockcharts.com If you put in the symbol for MNKD and then below in the overlay section you will find 3 drop downs where it gives you the options for various overlays (my suggestion for the first two would be the simple moving average 50d, then the simple moving average 200d and the third drop down Ichimoku Cloud (not the full). The indicator drop downs below that I put in the RSI and MACD respectively. The daily chart today will show that we pierced the bottom of the cloud both friday and today with a "double bottom" potential setup and finishing back in the cloud. I encourage those of you interested to read up on the different meanings and how trading above, through, and below the cloud is interpreted...I use this as one of my trading/investing tools for entry and exit combined with other indicators, etc. What's interesting is the different perspectives you get when looking at the daily vs. the weekly and if you change the period on the drop down at the top to weekly it will adjust it and you will get where we are from a longer term perspective as we are still "above the cloud" as they say. Having said all that, the "potential" double bottom if holds (still think possibility we could have one more good push down to that 8.08-8.20 area) could have us revisit the 50d ma which currently is at 9.60. If you noticed the drop to the 8.35 area this am. came when the market opened up and slid to its lows early in the session before fighting its way back to the break even mark, this would coincide with what I had mentioned in previous post about the pressure on margin calls, etc. A couple of market catalysts coming up with the Fed on wed. and the July unemployment report friday...anticipating they will either confirm the correction I felt was imminent or they would possibly catapult the indices to new highs on strong convicting volume...I am in the former camp more so than the latter which may aid the short side in that "push down" to the low 8's ....we'll see how it plays out. Liane or BD if this is considered too far out of the realm for the board, feel free to let me know your thoughts regarding same. Thanks -J |
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Post by gamblerjag on Jul 28, 2014 18:38:43 GMT -5
Joey, who have some great post and I'm hardly as TA person.. but I'm guessing mnkd just followed the market today and has done many days when there isn't news. I know MNKD shouldn't follow the DOW/SP as it really has no connection on many days it does follow the market and since no news we may still follow most days with a few nice 40- 60 cent bumps no matter what the broader market does. Cont. good luck!
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Jul 28, 2014 18:54:27 GMT -5
Joey, who have some great post and I'm hardly as TA person.. but I'm guessing mnkd just followed the market today and has done many days when there isn't news. I know MNKD shouldn't follow the DOW/SP as it really has no connection on many days it does follow the market and since no news we may still follow most days with a few nice 40- 60 cent bumps no matter what the broader market does. Cont. good luck! GJ, thanks and great to see you made it over here....the connection is via portfolio's that get margin calls and the fact that MNKD is in the S&P Biotech ETF (XBI) and most likely the IBB as well, so when they get sold, unfortunately our baby gets thrown out with the bath water like it or not it's just the way it is some days. |
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Post by liane on Jul 28, 2014 21:21:54 GMT -5
joey,
No problem at all with your level of detail in TA posts.
FYI, when you quote another post, that post will come up in a box. Your reply should be typed below the box so that it can be distinguished from the original post. Thanks!
liane
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jul 30, 2014 13:34:28 GMT -5
So what are the TA tea leaves saying for market? and for MNKD? What S&P puts did/might you purchase?
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Jul 30, 2014 13:55:51 GMT -5
So what are the TA tea leaves saying for market? and for MNKD? What S&P puts did/might you purchase? I had purchased weekly SPY puts on friday and closed that position this am close to the lows...still believe that we are in the topping process if it hasn't already topped last week...will re open weeklies if this bounce looks weak which it is looking to be at this point (so in other words will be trading from the bear side on any up legs). Longer term I purchased a bear spread for SEP buying the SPY 194 puts and selling the 182's against it for a 12 handle spread. As far as MNKD, if we have the correction I anticipate then could see us finishing this down leg with a nice test of the 8.08-8.20 breakout area post shareholder meeting from late May. At some point soon here I would expect that bottom and then a divergence between the two (MNKD and the broader market whereby the fundamentals and/or binary events will propel us to new highs in MNKD). Where else would one want to put their money in that has the potential that this does (other than some other up and coming biotechs) that is why the XBI and IBB have led the market higher the past two years and IMO will continue to do so with the innovative breakthroughs that keep occurring IMO. Initial short term support for S&P on this current weakness is 1955 which we got 7 pts. away from this am...suspect it will be visited before the week is done...if/when that is broken looking at 1925 afterwhich key and longer term support would target just under 1900 which would put us at a 5% correction....something a bit more serious and we would look at 1815 which would portend to be the 10% correction that many have been waiting for a long time. Guess we'll see how it plays out |
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jul 30, 2014 14:03:56 GMT -5
Thanks
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jul 31, 2014 17:08:04 GMT -5
Joey,
I'd never heard of a tri-star top before... but apparently that's a case of the stars being misaligned. Seems like if the market keeps getting hammered, any stock specific support levels for MNKD may be kind of meaningless. Do you have any thoughts on what we might see with MNKD. Actually I'm looking to pick up more shares, so wondering how much of a dip we could get if the broader sell-off continues.
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