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Post by Deleted on Jul 27, 2014 8:29:51 GMT -5
In cases of extreme Long - Short Wars, like we are experiencing with MNKD, historically,does one side prevail most of the time or is it a tossup?
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Post by BD on Jul 27, 2014 9:46:26 GMT -5
Yes.  |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 28, 2014 7:57:51 GMT -5
The market has a bullish bias, so it stands to reason that in general the short thesis is a losing one. In biotech, the common wisdom is that shorting a developmental biotech is the right move. That may have been correct before this last year's biotech bull run.
My recent post pretty much demonstrates that changes in short interest have no predictable effect on share price. Shorts are essentially a paper tiger.
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Post by alcc on Jul 28, 2014 11:12:43 GMT -5
Yes. But the speculative short phase will likely transition to a more consequential phase where entrenched RAA insulin competitors (NOV, LLY...) will fight back with FUD -- more consequential because these guys have much, much deeper pockets with much, much more to lose.
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Post by mannmade on Jul 28, 2014 11:22:23 GMT -5
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Post by mannmade on Jul 28, 2014 12:29:35 GMT -5
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Post by dreggy on Jul 28, 2014 13:03:35 GMT -5
In cases of extreme Long - Short Wars, like we are experiencing with MNKD, historically,does one side prevail most of the time or is it a tossup? In biotech, the shorts usually win, but when the longs win, the payout is worth the risk. The bet is usually on the outcome of trials or FDA approval. At this point, the winner will be determined by the quality of the partnership, then sales. I think once the partnership is announced, the shorts will begin a "yea, but it won't sell" campaign.". Slow sales early on could provide some more buying ops. Doctors are usually in a "comfort zone" with the drugs thay prescribe, and it will take time to convince them Afrezza is the best option. I plan on trading around my thesis, but will be very happy if the long term holders kick some butt on the shorts! |
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