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Post by brotherm1 on Oct 20, 2018 23:01:20 GMT -5
It could happen in the blink of an eye and is a big reason I’m not trading one share.
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Post by buyitonsale on Oct 20, 2018 23:50:23 GMT -5
When Afrezza is approved for pediatrics we will see 200K T1D kids choose to take a puff instead of a shot and start a massive trend for inhaled insulin’adoption. That’s when BP will reach into their wallets. I also think that we may start getting offers after the first profitable quarter... hey could be this Q4 18
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Post by mike0475 on Oct 21, 2018 9:23:49 GMT -5
Can someone provide some realistic pps offers? 2018 2019 2020 2021
Assume we get stronger and better offer longer we go w UTHR or other Pharma parteners plus A sub growth and pediatrics
Nate was saying 300x which my math said was 1200-1500/share
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Post by agedhippie on Oct 21, 2018 9:46:13 GMT -5
Can someone provide some realistic pps offers? 2018 2019 2020 2021 Assume we get stronger and better offer longer we go w UTHR or other Pharma parteners plus A sub growth and pediatrics Nate was saying 300x which my math said was 1200-1500/share It depends heavily on the share price, but also on the balance sheet. The premium can be as high as 90% for oncology drugs, but 60% is more typical this year (this is all cyclic and we are on an upswing). Assuming the share price was around 1.80 when Nate said that, the buyout price would be $540. Halve that to get an very optimistic premium and you need a pre-offer share price of $270, more realistically $340.
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Post by akemp3000 on Oct 21, 2018 10:32:13 GMT -5
Is it feasible for a BP company or an investor for that matter to initiate a hostile takeover of MNKD? It seems this would start a bidding war. If I recall correctly, one of many reasons for authorizing the additional new shares was to prevent such an action. I don't know enough about the variables and would enjoy learning from other perspectives. Maybe it's not feasible at all? Maybe it's believed existing large block shareholders could stop it in its tracks.
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Post by buyitonsale on Oct 21, 2018 11:55:52 GMT -5
Old article on the valuation potential : www.gurufocus.com/news/266527/a-look-at-mannkind-corporations-true-valueThe repricing to post approval market cap of 4 to 5 billion has to happen first and I believe It will after cash flow break even is in sight. That 5 billion valuation has been my personal price target all along and stil is. Having said that I certainly believe that Afrezza can capture at least 33 % of RAA market in due time. And that’s when you will see the market cap of 12 to 30 billion. Technosphere partnerships will be a way to stabilize the company and ensure profitability as well as repricing of assets before Afrezza takes a significant market share. Now that we have the first deal done it is a certainty. Go MNKD!
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Post by boca1girl on Oct 21, 2018 11:57:42 GMT -5
Can someone provide some realistic pps offers? 2018 2019 2020 2021 Assume we get stronger and better offer longer we go w UTHR or other Pharma parteners plus A sub growth and pediatrics Nate was saying 300x which my math said was 1200-1500/share It depends heavily on the share price, but also on the balance sheet. The premium can be as high as 90% for oncology drugs, but 60% is more typical this year (this is all cyclic and we are on an upswing). Assuming the share price was around 1.80 when Nate said that, the buyout price would be $540. Halve that to get an very optimistic premium and you need a pre-offer share price of $270, more realistically $340. By my quick calculations, $100 would = a market cap of $15B, $270 = $41B, and $340 = $52B. Nice numbers to dream about, but it is hard for me to believe we could even get to the $100 pps before 2022. Especially considering pricing pressures on the pharmaceutical industry and this long bull market cycle probably nearing it’s end. Here are the current market caps (billions) of some of the big pharma companies today according to Yahoo: TEVA $21 BMY $88 GLX $99 ELY $116 MRK $192 PFE $260 JNJ $373 So which one of these would be able/willing to make an acquisition in the $40 - $50B range in the next few years? Maybe we could hit that valuation in 5+ years with Afrezza adult and pediatric sales world wide along with partners for 5 other drugs. But realistically, I just don’t see it in the next three years. (I hope I’m proven wrong by the way, and that we get the acquirer’s shares rather than cash.)
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Post by figglebird on Oct 21, 2018 13:53:32 GMT -5
upside is hard to calculate I imagine especially for non pharma insiders atp - mnkd is really one of the ONLY dpi exclusive companies among 1 of the five or 10 major dpi players (azn, nvs, gsk etc) - there are only 15 non combo sttaight dpi medications/apis ever to recieve FDA approval.
the trend if any is very early,and analytically complex - on one hand dpis belong 2 the fastest growing area in Pharmaceuticals which is inhalables growing at 7% per year worldwide - dpi projected growth is 4pct yoy - demand has been mostly local or respiratory based indications such as cystic fibrosis,copd 4 reasons like better efficacy, safety to traditional aerosol although there has also emerged a wide range of mix products. I am not as informed on - something such as Advair i believe.
The most listed obstacles to dpi adoption are FDA dual Approval - both formulation and device) device ease-of-use - insurance, pricing.
This said however I believe R&D has increased tremendously so that's a good sign
i think MannKind is positioned really well right now on the reward end because I think management has been positioning the co ahead of these issues as much as they can - if growth is slow it may be part of one patient at a time not just in diabetes but straight DPI usage - I think a lot can happen but until pah technosphere is approved device and formulation, solidifying a potential leading position, too early to calculate
I would definitely stick with where I started 3 billion fair market value to 37 billion atp.
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Post by matt on Oct 21, 2018 14:24:16 GMT -5
I did M&A for a good part of my career for a major industry player. I literally looked at hundreds of potential buyout targets in that time. What people usually fail to consider is that deals get done when the deep pocketed company needs the target added to their product portfolio and the price is low enough that it will be accretive to the acquiring company's income statement within 24 months. The bigger the price tag, the more difficult it is to meet the second criteria. Never forget that the acquiring management is not eager to dilute earnings for more than one year because if they do, their shareholders and directors will skin them alive.
Afrezza frankly has negative value for any potential buyer with the possible exception of Lilly or Novo Nordisk. The drug does not breakeven at the gross profit line, let alone the operating profit line, and it would be a weak candidate to lead an entry into the diabetic space although it might be an interesting addition to Lilly or Novo since they already have an established sales channel. Technosphere is likewise an interesting idea, but the principal patents date to the 1990's and those have expired long ago so there is nothing to keep a competitor from attempting to clone TS; most big pharmas have deep expertise in manufacturing. An acquisition of the technology might be worthwhile if the price is low enough, but to get a big pharma to pay up for a drug delivery technology that has lost its principal patent protection is not a realistic expectation unless they are absolutely desperate for a delivery method on a new drug where all others have failed.
The overwhelming percentage of acquisitions for established companies go off at a 20% to 35% premium, with numbers at 50% or more for high growth or "first in category" therapeutics. Acquirers pay a premium based on the income that already exists or is reasonably foreseeable PLUS excess cash on the balance sheet MINUS any debt PLUS the value of any sales channel or manufacturing synergies. They only bother to calculate what that means on a per share basis after they first come up with an overall dollar value they are willing to pay, net of cash and debt, because that is what will hit the acquirer's financial statements.
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Post by figglebird on Oct 21, 2018 15:01:02 GMT -5
by the time any effort or financial resource is put fourth to try and reciprocate this highly secretive process that involves not just formulation but propritary tech, Trade Secrets abd oh yeah the device that also requires FDA approval it will have been worth the immense expense(at the time) it's the other side of this coin - itll cost someone The Market Value Plus premium at the time - what you're not really evaluatimg here ( perhaps due to your many years of traditional MMA experience is the first position element of novel tech - I'll put it to you like this if technosphere succeeds patents from the 90s will not shrink moat.
Have you read FDA guidelines recently revised from 1998
If it was just the process of formulation the product would have been approved in two thousand eleven
The beauty of the burden of first one in is the benefit - and the expense paid to do it you can't just Half & Half fat you got to know the law, guidelines regarding dpi's they would be very favorable if and when when t s DPI starts taking share.
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Post by mannmade on Oct 21, 2018 15:16:19 GMT -5
While I am not anywhere an expert in this field I believe Mike has said patents are still good for quite some time (am speaking about TS and inhaler not afrezza) also as I recall they have been updating patent regularly. And lastly I recall hearing someone senior at mnkd say the process is so complex it would be hard to duplicate so they were not worried about generics.
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Post by sellhighdrinklow on Oct 21, 2018 18:03:24 GMT -5
I did M&A for a good part of my career for a major industry player. I literally looked at hundreds of potential buyout targets in that time. What people usually fail to consider is that deals get done when the deep pocketed company needs the target added to their product portfolio and the price is low enough that it will be accretive to the acquiring company's income statement within 24 months. The bigger the price tag, the more difficult it is to meet the second criteria. Never forget that the acquiring management is not eager to dilute earnings for more than one year because if they do, their shareholders and directors will skin them alive. Afrezza frankly has negative value for any potential buyer with the possible exception of Lilly or Novo Nordisk. The drug does not breakeven at the gross profit line, let alone the operating profit line, and it would be a weak candidate to lead an entry into the diabetic space although it might be an interesting addition to Lilly or Novo since they already have an established sales channel. Technosphere is likewise an interesting idea, but the principal patents date to the 1990's and those have expired long ago so there is nothing to keep a competitor from attempting to clone TS; most big pharmas have deep expertise in manufacturing. An acquisition of the technology might be worthwhile if the price is low enough, but to get a big pharma to pay up for a drug delivery technology that has lost its principal patent protection is not a realistic expectation unless they are absolutely desperate for a delivery method on a new drug where all others have failed. The overwhelming percentage of acquisitions for established companies go off at a 20% to 35% premium, with numbers at 50% or more for high growth or "first in category" therapeutics. Acquirers pay a premium based on the income that already exists or is reasonably foreseeable PLUS excess cash on the balance sheet MINUS any debt PLUS the value of any sales channel or manufacturing synergies. They only bother to calculate what that means on a per share basis after they first come up with an overall dollar value they are willing to pay, net of cash and debt, because that is what will hit the acquirer's financial statements. You work hard here, Matt, pontificating the inevitable downfall and lower valuation of a company soon to be a break even company with a VERY, VERY LARGE MARKET for sales of their product. That means this company called Maannkind is soon to sky rocket and make long shareholders a lot of money. You are here for a reason spreading....FUDFUDFUD. JMHO
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Post by lennymnkd on Oct 21, 2018 18:16:12 GMT -5
Notice the thumbs up ,
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Post by winner on Oct 21, 2018 19:11:50 GMT -5
One and All I have been playing the markets for ~ 30 years. I have always played with money that I could afford to lose. To date I am guessing I am up approx. $50 k. I love the entertainment. Some play golf, I play equities. If / when the share price gets to $20.00 I may have to consider exiting the markets. I will waste a couple of hundred thousand and buy myself an Aston Martin Vantage. There will still be lots left over for our children and grand children. Best of luck to one and all.....
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Post by sportsrancho on Oct 21, 2018 19:42:04 GMT -5
One and All I have been playing the markets for ~ 30 years. I have always played with money that I could afford to lose. To date I am guessing I am up approx. $50 k. I love the entertainment. Some play golf, I play equities. If / when the share price gets to $20.00 I may have to consider exiting the markets. I will waste a couple of hundred thousand and buy myself an Aston Martin Vantage. There will still be lots left over for our children and grand children. Best of luck to one and all..... You got it going on! Cheers
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