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Post by mytakeonit on Oct 21, 2018 22:24:18 GMT -5
When pps gets to $20.00 ... I'm buying a larger tent with a door mat !!! So, 30 years and you're up $50k ... and at $20 you will sell it and exit the market to buy an Aston Martin Vantage. What will you be doing with the rest of the money? $50k at $2 per share give you 25,000 shares of MNKD. At $20 it'll be worth $500,000 plus your original holdings. I think you're squirreling some $$$ away and not telling us the whole story. My story is that I already own Diamond Head and just need a larger tent.
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Post by buyitonsale on Oct 21, 2018 22:48:20 GMT -5
Any cool wine bars around Diamond Head? 😊
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Post by mytakeonit on Oct 22, 2018 14:43:34 GMT -5
My tent probably has the best wine in the neighborhood. And next is ... Waikiki the liquor capital of the world !!!
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Post by #NoMoreNeedles on Jan 17, 2019 10:53:33 GMT -5
Well, any new predictions!?
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Post by uvula on Jan 17, 2019 11:16:41 GMT -5
Well, any new predictions!? My prediction is that Nomoreneedles is bored and will be posting several more messages in threads that have been forgotten months or years ago. (I'm bored also.)
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Post by itellthefuture777 on Jan 17, 2019 11:43:19 GMT -5
Can someone provide some realistic pps offers? 2018 2019 2020 2021 Assume we get stronger and better offer longer we go w UTHR or other Pharma parteners plus A sub growth and pediatrics Nate was saying 300x which my math said was 1200-1500/share It depends heavily on the share price, but also on the balance sheet. The premium can be as high as 90% for oncology drugs, but 60% is more typical this year (this is all cyclic and we are on an upswing). Assuming the share price was around 1.80 when Nate said that, the buyout price would be $540. Halve that to get an very optimistic premium and you need a pre-offer share price of $270, more realistically $340. The price of Mannkind in the beginning..before any drug was created or approved or shown superior was..$125 a share...now at $1.37...Al doesn't start something historically that doesn't have a 10x to 100x factor..so $1,250 a share low end...to $12,500 a share high end..I find it staggering we are at $1.37..but..as long as analyst have their heads up their butts..might as well keep picking these diamonds up ..
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Post by agedhippie on Jan 17, 2019 12:00:37 GMT -5
It depends heavily on the share price, but also on the balance sheet. The premium can be as high as 90% for oncology drugs, but 60% is more typical this year (this is all cyclic and we are on an upswing). Assuming the share price was around 1.80 when Nate said that, the buyout price would be $540. Halve that to get an very optimistic premium and you need a pre-offer share price of $270, more realistically $340. The price of Mannkind in the beginning..before any drug was created or approved or shown superior was..$125 a share...now at $1.37...Al doesn't start something historically that doesn't have a 10x to 100x factor..so $1,250 a share low end...to $12,500 a share high end..I find it staggering we are at $1.37..but..as long as analyst have their heads up their butts..might as well keep picking these diamonds up .. IMHO Wall Street is a lot closer to trackside betting than a business. When Mannkind was being paraded around the ring it looked like a winner so it attracted votes. Once the race began it dropped back to the odds lengthened. Here we are well into the race and Mannkind is bringing up the rear hence the share price is where it is. On the plus side moving up through the field will shorten those odds and the share price will rise. What would moving up through the field look like? There are two arms to this; Afrezza, and technosphere. On the Afrezza side I want to see Afrezza overtake Apidra, it's a lower target (under 5,000 TRx) than a lot of the targets bandied about and I think it is enough to make people take notice - we will have overtaken one of the insulin cartel. On the technosphere side I think it is going to take technosphere becoming one of the go to delivery mechanisms and that will be evidenced by a pipeline of commissioned and not speculative work. Where does that get us to with share price? I have no idea other than I would say concentrate on market cap rather than share price.
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Post by bigchungus91354 on Jan 17, 2019 12:15:30 GMT -5
Can someone provide some realistic pps offers? 2018 2019 2020 2021 Assume we get stronger and better offer longer we go w UTHR or other Pharma parteners plus A sub growth and pediatrics Nate was saying 300x which my math said was 1200-1500/share The more new shareholders come in at lower prices, the lower the number looks. I'd take $3 and do pretty well with that. If you consider that they were 100M shares after the R/S and they have close to doubled that since, you can assume almost half of new SH are in under $2.50 (or old ones averaged down there). I think $5 looks good to most. If not, dilute some more, it will eventually.
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Post by gamblerjag on Jan 17, 2019 12:27:06 GMT -5
However, we can't just say we were @ $125, we need to go by market cap due to dilution. Using analyst, Nate, MK guesses are based on older outstanding shares. So we need to look at apples to apples.
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Post by mannmade on Jan 17, 2019 12:27:39 GMT -5
Imho talk of a buy out is very premature at this point. As Nate points out we are really only 6 to 12 months into the launch of Afrezza if you consider all the issues that had to be overcome post Sanofi.
And since then mnkd has reorganized, lowered debt significantly and improved sales and revenue (although both need to accelerate and grow much more) beyond what Sanofi did.
And let’s not forget all of the potential with TS.
Am not sure why anyone wants to talk about buy out now. Maybe in 12 months but why now? Perhaps a buy-in by Uthr but a buy out?
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Post by jlaw277 on Jan 17, 2019 12:49:10 GMT -5
Imho talk of a buy out is very premature at this point. As Nate points out we are really only 6 to 12 months into the launch of Afrezza if you consider all the issues that had to be overcome post Sanofi. And since then mnkd has reorganized, lowered debt significantly and improved sales and revenue (although both need to accelerate and grow much more) beyond what Sanofi did. And let’s not forget all of the potential with TS. Am not sure why anyone wants to talk about buy out now. Maybe in 12 months but why now? Perhaps a buy-in by Uthr but a buy out? In the most recent call, MC says: "This capital raise was sourced from a strategic investor, existing institutional shareholders and new long term equity shareholders and we’ve had -- and we’ve met with and have been doing -- and been doing their due diligence over the last 12 months." "Strategic" is used within the parlance of M&A and the investment world to refer to a company, often within the same or similar space, who is making an investment in, or outright acquisition of, another company for strategic reasons. It may be that UTHR has already committed a small amount to owning a less than 5% stake in MNKD. If they keep it below that 5% threshold, I don't believe that it has to be disclosed at this time. Even if it is not them, it would appear based on MC's comments that a company has bought some shares in MNKD.
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Post by prcgorman2 on Jan 17, 2019 13:24:54 GMT -5
Given that ownership is now not concentrated within the Mann trust, and given that a greater than 5% share requires disclosure, talk of buyout is most likely a waste of time.
The current stock price is a bargain if MNKD either becomes profitable or is bought. On the other hand, Mannkind is not out of the woods. But as Nate Pile observed, they're now finally far enough along in their restructure of debt and management and operations that we should be able to tell within the next several quarters whether Afrezza and TS will ever be the life-changing drug and drug-delivery products longs have bet on.
As for this long, I haven't sold a single share since 2014, but have averaged down several times. I remain hopeful that a time is coming when averaging down will no longer be possible and that I will be joyful I invested every nickel.
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Post by longliner on Jan 17, 2019 14:12:06 GMT -5
I'm not sure how this relates to a buyout, but the tide appears to have turned December 27th. Granted this is a short window but if it continues and the short side continues to melt away, the pressure on BP to act may intensify given the level of M&A in this space.
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Post by agedhippie on Jan 17, 2019 14:18:00 GMT -5
I'm not sure how this relates to a buyout, but the tide appears to have turned December 27th. Granted this is a short window but if it continues and the short side continues to melt away, the pressure on BP to act may intensify given the level of M&A in this space. I would expect to see the shorts exit after the drop. Contrary to what some think they are not there to destroy the company, they are there to play the numbers. Once the deal was done the price dropped and that was their cue to exit because the price was unlikely to drop much further. I would have expected the majority of them to have gone long at that point because they expect the price to revert to the mean. As the price continues to rise they will gradually go short again in anticipation of the next drop.
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Post by longliner on Jan 17, 2019 14:22:28 GMT -5
I'm not sure how this relates to a buyout, but the tide appears to have turned December 27th. Granted this is a short window but if it continues and the short side continues to melt away, the pressure on BP to act may intensify given the level of M&A in this space. I would expect to see the shorts exit after the drop. Contrary to what some think they are not there to destroy the company, they are there to play the numbers. Once the deal was done the price dropped and that was their cue to exit because the price was unlikely to drop much further. I would have expected the majority of them to have gone long at that point because they expect the price to revert to the mean. As the price continues to rise they will gradually go short again in anticipation of the next drop. Not saying you are wrong, but I would prefer to see news from the Company on previously discussed deals that would simply hasten the shorts exit, (I'm sure you would too)
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