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Post by mannmade on Jul 28, 2014 12:05:21 GMT -5
This reflects my opinion only... But wanted to give a rational and reasoned opine to get away from the negative impact of recent shorting and it's effect on share price... And some of us I believe that the stock will start it's new run-up in the next week or so for the following reasons... (Option 1 and Option 2 as described) 1.) Mnkd historically has a CC for the previous quarters performance two weeks into the start of the following quarter... If they hold to this schedule they undoubtedly know the below questions will be asked, if they don't make an announcement directly; a.) When will partnership be announced? b.) Is it a BP Major (Domestic/European) c.) Deal Structure/Terms? d.) When will announce? e.) Predicted Launch Date? And I suspect they will have formulated market friendly answers, which hopefully will drive share price momentum. 2.) The other option is that they might announce a week or two delay for the date of the 2nd Q CC a.) This would suggest an announcement is pending the dotting and crossing of the "i's" and t's" b.) They simply would not delay the CC to let us know the partnership announcement is being delayed. (I mean they could but not likely due to the realities of this situation) So in either case I think we will get some positive (bankable) news if not an outright announcement about partnership... Also given they are on record saying should have news within 6 to 8 weeks from PDUFA, (The full 8 weeks would be in exactly 30 days from today, Wednesday, 08.28.14) and 6 weeks would be Thursday, 08.14 smack in the middle of the two week trailing CC date that has historically been set by Mnkd. Now we know the shorts also know this so this is why we are likely seeing such severe activity on the short side, as Joey and others have said "they are getting desperate..." We know the shorts are not out of ammunition as the will look to misinform, create panic and manipulate whatever deal is announced and then simply move on to the revenue argument (which I mentioned in a previous post) However, we will all be one step closer to the end goal and with information about the launch date we can then look to the date of revenue reporting for the first full quarter, and if it is lower than expected, which may be the case (for a variety of reasons having nothing to do with Afrezza's ultimate success) then the shorts will use that. Lastly on my opine for now... the magic bullet to put down the shorts I believe would be as follows:
A deal is announced with a bona fide BP, the main terms are seen as very good for Mnkd (Upfront, Royalties/License, etc..) and the BP releases a press statement about how much they believe in the drug, how it will effect the future of diabetes care (possibly becoming the standard of care for Prandial) and that they intend to support launch and sales with 100m plus marketing campaign directed at medical professionals, insurance companies and the patient population...GLTA!
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Post by babaoriley on Jul 28, 2014 12:15:13 GMT -5
Agree with most all you say, mannmade, except the timing of the announcement. I think it's gonna take a little more time than you think, Al is not an easy guy with whom to deal. I'm hoping for an announcement of the kind you wrote as your last paragraph above by the end of September.
For now, I'm selling November 6 puts.
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Post by mannmade on Jul 28, 2014 12:27:16 GMT -5
Thanks Baba, as you know it was my wish list for an early Xmas... I actually would not be surprised with what you say but that would then fall under the Option 1 concept of getting some bankable (whatever the lawyers will allow them to say) news/info as they have to be aware of the current situation... And I do believe the care about it even if their strategy is to remain silent to this point. With the CC they cannot really remain silent as the questions will be asked and they have to be prepared for them... And Xmas will still be early even if in September... Be well my friend...
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Post by babaoriley on Jul 28, 2014 13:34:28 GMT -5
I can see the CC going off poorly if no partnership by then. All they will/can say is we continue negotiations and are optimistic we will have a win/win deal done before too long. You and I know how that's going to go over with the friendly analysts/bloggers.
Bought some more shares and sold Nov 11 calls against them.
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Post by gamblerjag on Jul 28, 2014 15:55:42 GMT -5
Cant they say during the CC that we are still in discussions, but EXPECT very good news soon...... anything that won't kill the share price.. Whether it's a smirk, a laugh, snicker or some subtle clue?
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Post by mrhaigs on Jul 28, 2014 16:03:45 GMT -5
Cant they say during the CC that we are still in discussions, but EXPECT very good news soon...... anything that won't kill the share price.. Whether it's a smirk, a laugh, snicker or some subtle clue? I don't think that will be good enough. Stock will tank off that. Same old same old. I think we will have something prior to any call in August though. God I hope so.
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Post by sonic22 on Jul 28, 2014 16:31:41 GMT -5
Hey guys,
Long time lurker and have been a MNKD stockholder for several years. Just wanted to say thanks to all the guys/gals here who have been providing great information. This board is a big help. Thanks again!
As for the 2nd quarter CC I personally wouldn't have a problem if they cancelled it. I have had other stocks that have cancelled CC's(its not required by the SEC) due to pending material news such as buyouts or other major events that were in the process of being finalized. Obviously with MNKD we all know its about the partnership and as many have said before its not a quick an easy task to due a partnership of this kind. I agree Baba that my expectation was around the Sept/Oct timeframe but obviously if it happens sooner I will be happy. With the AF's of the world now saying MNKD has to update shareholders by 8/15 due to earnings im sure a cancellation of the CC would drop the price a bit however im not sure a live CC without partnership news would be any better. We all know what is going on and if legally they can't say anything it might make more sense to suspend the CC until a partnership is announced and then have the CC. I still probably expect MNKD to have a live CC(it seems the press and columnists would have a field day if they didn't, more BS rumors of no partnership etc) but in the rare case they don't I could understand why they would just relase earnings and the 10Q and then have the CC once partnership is announced.
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Jul 28, 2014 16:55:19 GMT -5
Hey guys, Long time lurker and have been a MNKD stockholder for several years. Just wanted to say thanks to all the guys/gals here who have been providing great information. This board is a big help. Thanks again! As for the 2nd quarter CC I personally wouldn't have a problem if they cancelled it. I have had other stocks that have cancelled CC's(its not required by the SEC) due to pending material news such as buyouts or other major events that were in the process of being finalized. Obviously with MNKD we all know its about the partnership and as many have said before its not a quick an easy task to due a partnership of this kind. I agree Baba that my expectation was around the Sept/Oct timeframe but obviously if it happens sooner I will be happy. With the AF's of the world now saying MNKD has to update shareholders by 8/15 due to earnings im sure a cancellation of the CC would drop the price a bit however im not sure a live CC without partnership news would be any better. We all know what is going on and if legally they can't say anything it might make more sense to suspend the CC until a partnership is announced and then have the CC. I still probably expect MNKD to have a live CC(it seems the press and columnists would have a field day if they didn't, more BS rumors of no partnership etc) but in the rare case they don't I could understand why they would just relase earnings and the 10Q and then have the CC once partnership is announced. Sonic, have not been here all that long but do appreciate your thoughts and input so thanks for participating. I know there are a lot of long time lurkers and guests that may have something to contribute to the board regardless of their position etc., and I would encourage them to step out and do the same as you just did...this board has an unbelievable amount of more potential with the tools and resources that it has available. As far as your thoughts I tend to agree if they are that much closer to an agreement but can't really say anything then could see not having the CC...the problem with what was suggested above (stating we expect good news shortly) is they subject themselves to another possible lawsuit should there end up being some type of delay for whatever reason...so why even put yourself in that position. AF is just trying to plant his seeds IMO in anticipation of them remaining silent but as the BE (behavioral economist) alluded to...silence is more than likely golden in this particular situation and if they end up throwing a tantrum and being loud again...well you know the rest. Thanks again for posting!
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Post by daduke38 on Jul 28, 2014 19:05:02 GMT -5
Unless I missed it, have they even listed a date for Quarterly results yet? This optimistically leads me to believe we may be with-in days of an announcement. As we know a conference call is not required, but they do need to release earnings. Am I just wishful thinking?
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Post by Chris-C on Jul 28, 2014 21:08:20 GMT -5
Mannmade- Thanks for the observations, with which I agree. I am a relative newbie on the board, as I joined a year ago and then started frequenting the IV and IH boards, which have both now been hijacked by traders with no patience and shorts with no scruples. I personally believe that given Mr. Pfeffers last public utterance about the matter helps shed some light on the current situation. This is from the transcript of the Wells Fargo Health Care Forum presentation in mid June.
"I do want to address one issue which is, surrounding commercialization, which is in fact the partner because that’s probably one of the most asked questions. And it’s part of the one I have the hardest time answering mostly because I am just not able to. We have said publicly we are in discussions with multiple parties, something always good to be in, but we don’t anticipate we are likely to announce a partnership before approval. So, how fast after approval? Well, that’s been a controversial question and in our recent conference appearance one of my colleagues went out a little bit on a limb and do this kind of a hypothetical number and said six to eight weeks that could be right, it could also be wrong. Could it be less? It absolutely could be less and we are hoping the people including some very well qualified bankers who have been working on this for many, many months with these same partners and working towards an agreement and are anxious to get this done, probably because we all like to get it done sooner so we can get it on the market quicker and probably because they are completely success based in their fees.
But at the end of the day we really can’t say. It’s quite likely or possible that there will -- the final partnering candidates will await for the final label and have a few things to want to hash over with us. So could it be days after approval? Yes, it could. Could it be months after? It could be that too. So I don’t want to set specific expectations, needless to say we’ll do it as quickly as we can and we think we’re pretty well equipped to do it pretty quickly after.
So summarizing and still leaving some time for questions we think this is a product clearly with blockbuster potential. Blockbuster is usually defined as anything over a billion and we can get that pretty easily with not very much of this market, actually frankly a very small percentage. And we think we have a new class of insulin therapy that addresses a very poorly met medical need in this space. We need better insulins, doctors universally agree we need them that work faster and have less risk of hypoglycemia. We think we can deliver on both those promises and we are anxious to be able to do that and that we could do it through a simple, easy to use, non-injection, and inhalation device that you can hide in the palm of your hand if you wish to, it’s just a icing on top of the cake in this regard."
So, this tells me that their expected horizon following approval was 6-8 weeks. We are not even in that window yet. I believe they might want to make an announcement and then save the Quarterly Conference call to answer questions about it. I think the most likely partner is Sanofi. My second probable would be Merck. Time will tell, but it certainly too soon, in my opinion, to get concerned. I was surprised that Nate Pile, who has strongly recommended Mannkind in his well regarded investment newsletter, showed some mild anxiety about the delay in his recent post. Personally, I think it is a complex deal, especially if it is an acquisition, and most people know that large Pharmas are hungry for new products. In my opinion, we would have an announcement now were it not for (a) the large number of shares outstanding and (b) the unknown value of the patented Technosphere technology and its potential for rapid delivery of other medicines.
GLTAL Chris
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Post by savzak on Jul 28, 2014 21:28:54 GMT -5
Cant they say during the CC that we are still in discussions, but EXPECT very good news soon...... anything that won't kill the share price.. Whether it's a smirk, a laugh, snicker or some subtle clue? I don't think that will be good enough. Stock will tank off that. Same old same old. I think we will have something prior to any call in August though. God I hope so. The stock may tank. The market will make that determination. But this is not "same old same old". Afrezza is an FDA approved therapy for both type 1and 2 diabetics. Though all of us long timers may "feel" the familiarity of this most recent and unfortunate trading pattern, MannKind is a not the same risk that it was before approval when many millions of shares traded over $10.
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Post by mrhaigs on Jul 28, 2014 23:42:25 GMT -5
Same old same old was in response to the "we are very pleased with the job greenhill is doing". Yes, if they say that then it will be the same old response in regards to the partner question. I don't think we will be in that situation though.
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Post by babaoriley on Jul 28, 2014 23:44:00 GMT -5
Agree, 100%, savzak, and that's why even if we get a further haircut pre-partnership, it's far from the end of the world. Chris-C and Sonic22, nice posts. No one knows for sure when or even if it's going to happen. But 95% says it will happen, the when is the wildcard. Play the market for what it gives you now, which are some nice premiums on selling well out of the money puts, like the November 6's, for example.
What may be making Nate Pile a bit anxious is Al's reputation for being a tough cookie. And after all the blood, sweat and tears to get Afrezza to this point, well, you can imagine. As illustrious as a guy as he is, I'm pretty darn sure he's not the same guy he was even ten years ago. As I'm sure many have noticed, as people get older, often there dubious traits get even more pronounced. Thank goodness we apparently have multiple parties interested! Wonder if a few have dropped off, thinking, "sheesh, it's not worth it, we'll never get a deal with Al Mann."
As far as technospere being a bone of contention, obviously, it can always be held out of the deal.
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Post by liane on Jul 29, 2014 5:59:51 GMT -5
What may be making Nate Pile a bit anxious is Al's reputation for being a tough cookie.... baba, Is there something new from Nate??
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Post by babaoriley on Jul 29, 2014 9:33:16 GMT -5
Not that I know, liane, that line was total conjecture on my part.
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