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Post by agedhippie on Dec 3, 2018 19:48:39 GMT -5
Does breakeven on Afrezza include the cost of marketing and the Afrezza sales force?
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Post by peppy on Dec 3, 2018 20:09:19 GMT -5
quote: I’ll never forget the nonsensical post matt posted saying 10,000 scripts per week would not bring mnkd to profitability. reply: In all fairness (and we know the way I feel) I do not remember this post. Just sayin. My guess would be that it references this post: mnkd.proboards.com/post/75017/thread Aug 7, 2016 at 9:01am I see. thank you. Matt has had us in bankruptcy a couple of times since then as well. Sorry brotherm1 . I was wrong. My MNKD track record is just as chitty. MNKD sales have doubled since 2016. scripts were Trx 250 that week. Nrx 88 new, 162 refills. "Like davinci said, you need to do the numbers. Scripts drive revenue, which is a single line on a set of financial statements. I said that 10,000 would be cash flow break-even, and I stand by that number. Why? If we take the trending price per Rx of 533 (off the chart that Liane updates weekly) 10,000 scripts would yield $21 million a month in revenue. What does that $21 million need to cover? 1. The contract sales force, which we know costs around $10 million / month. 2. R&D. Everyone talks about how great Technosphere will be, but it will be worthless without further research. R&D has been averaging $2 million / month. 3. General & Administrative expenses averaged $3.3 million a month in 2015, $2.5 million for the first quarter. Call it $3 million / month. 4. Production cost averaged $5.6 million a month in 2015, and $2.5 million in the first quarter. That was to support very limited sales volumes; if the company is successful with relaunch the cost per month will scale up accordingly. It will not be linear, due to production economies of scale, but the number will substantially larger. 5. Working capital, like accounts receivable, was Sanofi's problem. Now that has to be financed by Mannkind's balance sheet and that is a use of cash that doesn't hit the income statement. 6. The company booked $5.5 million in losses per month on the Amphastar contract in 2015. That contract has not gone away and the current year exposure based on the last 10Q was $13 million. So add all of that up, and you will see that it might take substantially more than 10,000 scripts to reach cash flow break even. In the meantime, the company will burn cash, the balance sheet will deteriorate, and that is what Wall Street will be looking at. Any decent financial analyst would do the same calculation I just outlined and come to a similar conclusion on the revenue needed to support the organization as it is today, and 5,000 scripts per week just isn't enough. Many on this forum advocate dropping the unit selling price to drive penetration, but that would require even more scripts to make up the shortfall in revenue so that really isn't a feasible solution either. With 5,000 scripts the share price would move up, no doubt about that, but the financing terms will still be tough until the company can prove that it can generate enough cash to meet its maturing commitments and that will cost dearly in dilution. That level of sales buys time and loosens up the financial markets, but it is still not enough to fix the overall financial situation." |
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Post by longliner on Dec 3, 2018 23:07:18 GMT -5
The path to improved insurance coverage surely does not run through (an old list) Tomtabb, Mannkind Fan, Agedhippie, Xanet, Stevil, Matt, Sky, Rapp, etc., etc.,etc.... Now Rick, please don't spread the blood of Sluggo all over Seattle!! Even in jest, we three may yet meet at the final celebration in Vegas! Although I doubt we will ever meet the other folks mentioned.......  |
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Post by compound26 on Dec 4, 2018 0:17:00 GMT -5
Yep, he definitely said it. "Like davinci said, you need to do the numbers." "So add all of that up, and you will see that it might take substantially more than 10,000 scripts to reach cash flow break even. In the meantime, the company will burn cash, the balance sheet will deteriorate, and that is what Wall Street will be looking at. Any decent financial analyst would do the same calculation I just outlined and come to a similar conclusion..." — matt August 7, 2016 at 9:01AM Observation: I'm sure it doesn't count anymore though because he said it so long ago.‘Any decent financial analyst would do the same calculation I just outlined and come to a similar conclusion..." ‘Any decent financial analyst would do the same calculation I just outlined and come to a similar conclusion..." "Any decent financial analyst would do the same calculation I just outlined and come to a similar conclusion..." So, you see, anyone does not reach the same conclusion is evidently not a decent financial analyst. As usual, our resident bankruptcy expert is full of swag. I can see him bigger than Jim Cramer, Warren Buffet, etal, or perhaps all of them combined. |
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Post by traderdennis on Dec 4, 2018 14:34:52 GMT -5
Aug 7, 2016 at 9:01am I see. thank you. Matt has had us in bankruptcy a couple of times since then as well. Sorry brotherm1 . I was wrong. My MNKD track record is just as chitty. MNKD sales have doubled since 2016. scripts were Trx 250 that week. Nrx 88 new, 162 refills. "Like davinci said, you need to do the numbers. Scripts drive revenue, which is a single line on a set of financial statements. I said that 10,000 would be cash flow break-even, and I stand by that number. Why? If we take the trending price per Rx of 533 (off the chart that Liane updates weekly) 10,000 scripts would yield $21 million a month in revenue. What does that $21 million need to cover? 1. The contract sales force, which we know costs around $10 million / month. 2. R&D. Everyone talks about how great Technosphere will be, but it will be worthless without further research. R&D has been averaging $2 million / month. 3. General & Administrative expenses averaged $3.3 million a month in 2015, $2.5 million for the first quarter. Call it $3 million / month. 4. Production cost averaged $5.6 million a month in 2015, and $2.5 million in the first quarter. That was to support very limited sales volumes; if the company is successful with relaunch the cost per month will scale up accordingly. It will not be linear, due to production economies of scale, but the number will substantially larger. 5. Working capital, like accounts receivable, was Sanofi's problem. Now that has to be financed by Mannkind's balance sheet and that is a use of cash that doesn't hit the income statement. 6. The company booked $5.5 million in losses per month on the Amphastar contract in 2015. That contract has not gone away and the current year exposure based on the last 10Q was $13 million. So add all of that up, and you will see that it might take substantially more than 10,000 scripts to reach cash flow break even. In the meantime, the company will burn cash, the balance sheet will deteriorate, and that is what Wall Street will be looking at. Any decent financial analyst would do the same calculation I just outlined and come to a similar conclusion on the revenue needed to support the organization as it is today, and 5,000 scripts per week just isn't enough. Many on this forum advocate dropping the unit selling price to drive penetration, but that would require even more scripts to make up the shortfall in revenue so that really isn't a feasible solution either. With 5,000 scripts the share price would move up, no doubt about that, but the financing terms will still be tough until the company can prove that it can generate enough cash to meet its maturing commitments and that will cost dearly in dilution. That level of sales buys time and loosens up the financial markets, but it is still not enough to fix the overall financial situation." Stock price on August 16th was $5.00 per share per Yahoo. Today $1.75. Matt may of been wrong about bankruptcy, the company stock lost 65% of its value since his bankruptcy call. He was more correct than not. |
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Post by peppy on Dec 4, 2018 14:40:20 GMT -5
yeah, we know.
This insulin is really good.
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Post by mnkdfann on Dec 4, 2018 15:13:20 GMT -5
Stock price on August 16th was $5.00 per share per Yahoo. Today $1.75. Matt may of been wrong about bankruptcy, the company stock lost 65% of its value since his bankruptcy call. He was more correct than not. It's worth mentioning also that a script back in 2016 is not the same value as a script today. I think $$ / Rx has gone up 3 or 4 times since then (too lazy to check the exact figure right now). |
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Post by wsulylecoug on Dec 4, 2018 15:52:15 GMT -5
Aug 7, 2016 at 9:01am I see. thank you. Matt has had us in bankruptcy a couple of times since then as well. Sorry brotherm1 . I was wrong. My MNKD track record is just as chitty. MNKD sales have doubled since 2016. scripts were Trx 250 that week. Nrx 88 new, 162 refills. "Like davinci said, you need to do the numbers. Scripts drive revenue, which is a single line on a set of financial statements. I said that 10,000 would be cash flow break-even, and I stand by that number. Why? If we take the trending price per Rx of 533 (off the chart that Liane updates weekly) 10,000 scripts would yield $21 million a month in revenue. What does that $21 million need to cover? 1. The contract sales force, which we know costs around $10 million / month. 2. R&D. Everyone talks about how great Technosphere will be, but it will be worthless without further research. R&D has been averaging $2 million / month. 3. General & Administrative expenses averaged $3.3 million a month in 2015, $2.5 million for the first quarter. Call it $3 million / month. 4. Production cost averaged $5.6 million a month in 2015, and $2.5 million in the first quarter. That was to support very limited sales volumes; if the company is successful with relaunch the cost per month will scale up accordingly. It will not be linear, due to production economies of scale, but the number will substantially larger. 5. Working capital, like accounts receivable, was Sanofi's problem. Now that has to be financed by Mannkind's balance sheet and that is a use of cash that doesn't hit the income statement. 6. The company booked $5.5 million in losses per month on the Amphastar contract in 2015. That contract has not gone away and the current year exposure based on the last 10Q was $13 million. So add all of that up, and you will see that it might take substantially more than 10,000 scripts to reach cash flow break even. In the meantime, the company will burn cash, the balance sheet will deteriorate, and that is what Wall Street will be looking at. Any decent financial analyst would do the same calculation I just outlined and come to a similar conclusion on the revenue needed to support the organization as it is today, and 5,000 scripts per week just isn't enough. Many on this forum advocate dropping the unit selling price to drive penetration, but that would require even more scripts to make up the shortfall in revenue so that really isn't a feasible solution either. With 5,000 scripts the share price would move up, no doubt about that, but the financing terms will still be tough until the company can prove that it can generate enough cash to meet its maturing commitments and that will cost dearly in dilution. That level of sales buys time and loosens up the financial markets, but it is still not enough to fix the overall financial situation." Stock price on August 16th was $5.00 per share per Yahoo. Today $1.75. Matt may of been wrong about bankruptcy, the company stock lost 65% of its value since his bankruptcy call. He was more correct than not. Hopefully in a couple of years instead of being 65% right, he'll be 1000% wrong...  |
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Post by brotherm1 on Dec 4, 2018 16:09:02 GMT -5
many longs have already left this board and moved elsewhere due to the large abundance of short crapola. At the recent rate there will soon be zero longs left here to post and this board may as well be retitled MNKD conboards. Then you can all con each other and without any dissent
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Post by mytakeonit on Dec 4, 2018 16:16:39 GMT -5
So be silent and just watch the posts ... the shorts will be conning each other and the posts will turn PRO !!!
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Post by sayhey24 on Dec 5, 2018 7:52:15 GMT -5
Stevil - you said you "had incredible difficulty compiling compelling trial data for the use of Afrezza for better glucose control. I found that I was forced to explain the science and why Afrezza "should" work better"
Thats really a shame. There are a zillion studies associated with the damage 140+ sugars cause after 2 hours from neuropathy to heart attacks. Since afrezza is the only diabetes treatment to bring PWDs back to baseline in the 2 hour period, explaining why its a game changer should be a no-brainer. The STAT results are pretty clear. afrezza stands alone and all it takes is a little puff.
GLP1s can't do this nor metformin. Both just mask the issue and hope the broken pancreas has time to catch up before the next meal. Over time what we know is both typically fail. Worse than that are side effects.
The problem is that there are no quantified results of the impact of Afrezza in the long term. Afrezza returns you to the baseline in two hours taken properly. The question is in the real world will it be taken properly, and if so by how many and for how long. This is complicated by the use of HbA1c as a proxy for the likelihood of complications, one day it will be TIR but the data is not there yet. Without a pivotal trial it is going to be a game of inches. GLP-1 is the perfect drug for the patient population that Stevil is talking about. This is a group that struggles to take drugs daily and you are asking them to take a changing dose of Afrezza every time they eat and to test and possibly follow up an hour later. That is to much of a load, they will not be able to deal with that. Taking a GLP-1 dose every Sunday is far more achievable. It doesn't matter how wonderful a drug is if people do not take it. Aged - not really sure what you are talking about here. We are talking T2s. If treated early enough most will still have some phase 2 release.
Taking afrezza "properly" with a T2 is much different than the T1s in STAT. Get the T2 the replacement for phase 1 release and their pancreas will pretty much do the rest. A follow-up for super control won't hurt but much less needed than with the T1s.
Use the afrezza and they will never need the GLP-1. Use the GLP-1 and one day many, if they don't have a heart attack will need the insulin. No T2 wants to take shots be it weekly or daily. A quick puff is cool at mealtime.
The big thing with the GLP-1 is they are not stopping the post meal 140+ sugars. In fact they are prolonging them. What I would like to see are some nice CGM profiles of GLP-1 users. The 140+ sugars lasting for hours is causing major damage.
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Post by agedhippie on Dec 5, 2018 9:26:37 GMT -5
Aged - not really sure what you are talking about here. We are talking T2s. If treated early enough most will still have some phase 2 release.
Taking afrezza "properly" with a T2 is much different than the T1s in STAT. Get the T2 the replacement for phase 1 release and their pancreas will pretty much do the rest. A follow-up for super control won't hurt but much less needed than with the T1s.
Use the afrezza and they will never need the GLP-1. Use the GLP-1 and one day many, if they don't have a heart attack will need the insulin. No T2 wants to take shots be it weekly or daily. A quick puff is cool at mealtime.
The big thing with the GLP-1 is they are not stopping the post meal 140+ sugars. In fact they are prolonging them. What I would like to see are some nice CGM profiles of GLP-1 users. The 140+ sugars lasting for hours is causing major damage.
The issue is that they get treated with prandial insulin as the very last step in the SOC so they are not going to get insulin early. The bigger issue with this population that Stevil describes is that they are either reluctant to take their medicine (in denial - I am not so bad that I need insulin), for various reasons cannot take it reliably (the vulnerable population), or cannot afford it. Leaving the last point aside getting them to take something once a week is a lot easier than getting them to take something whenever they eat (assuming they are in a position to do so). His point is that GLP-1 may not be perfect, but it's better than nothing which is the option with this group. |
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Post by lennymnkd on Dec 5, 2018 11:00:06 GMT -5
Seldom in agreement with aged , but have to agree with him on prandial compliance / I was totally naive on the importance of this issue, though it would somewhat be midigated with the CGM’s ... can marketing address this issue or do scare tactics have to come into play for the benefit of the patient population.
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Post by jk1950 on Dec 5, 2018 12:55:30 GMT -5
6." The company booked $5.5 million in losses per month on the Amphastar contract in 2015. That contract has not gone away and the current year exposure based on the last 10Q was $13 million." Can someone please tell me why MNKD is not making money on this Amphastar contract by selling the amount in excess of our current needs. We can sell it back to Amphastar at a slight price off current market prices or sell it on the open market at going market prices. That windfall can be used to reduce the $5.5 million penalty we currently incur? Read more: mnkd.proboards.com/thread/10681/path-improved-insurance-coverage-tiering?page=1#ixzz5YpgxYemP |
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Post by mnkdfann on Dec 5, 2018 13:07:07 GMT -5
6." The company booked $5.5 million in losses per month on the Amphastar contract in 2015. That contract has not gone away and the current year exposure based on the last 10Q was $13 million." Can someone please tell me why MNKD is not making money on this Amphastar contract by selling the amount in excess of our current needs. We can sell it back to Amphastar at a slight price off current market prices or sell it on the open market at going market prices. That windfall can be used to reduce the $5.5 million penalty we currently incur? I believe what you (and peppy) quoted was originally written in 2016. The numbers today are different. A chart in SO's latest article outlines the Amphastar payments. You can find it here: seekingalpha.com/article/4226080-mannkind-afrezza-scripts-take-expected-holiday-dip-good-badIf I read it correctly, there is only a $3,550,000 payment in 2019 and another for the same in 2020. Not sure what happens after that. |
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