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Post by centralcoastinvestor on Dec 1, 2018 13:26:35 GMT -5
Warning: The following post was generated while under the influence of a large dose of hopeium. I have been off of hopeium for awhile but relapsed. So if you are interested in a balanced viewpoint on this post please do not read on.
As I reviewed and thought about the script numbers from yesterday, I found reason to be hopeful for next week. To begin, I believe that the Thanksgiving Week is perhaps the worst week of the year for prescriptions. Most doctor offices are closed Thursday and Friday. Millions of people travel on Wednesday and millions more take the whole week off.
So lets look at the numbers:
Week ending 11/23
TRx 517 vs 639
TRx $733.78k vs $899.30k
NRx 214 va 274
NRx $321.99k vs $372.93k
For purposes of my hopeium analysis, I am going to assume that virtually no prescriptions were generated on Thursday and Friday. So for three days, 172 (517/3) prescriptions were generated on each day, Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. If that rate occurred last week, we would have 860 (172x5). Granted, this is probably an overly optimistic analysis. But consider this, a new aggressive TV advertising campaign has been under way for a couple of weeks. The refill rate has continued to improve. Which means that any up swing in new prescriptions could quickly improve Trx.
So what will the market do next Friday if we skip the 700s altogether and jump to the 800s and reach revenue over $1,000,000? Will this finally break the resolve of the shorts? I’m thinking maybe. If we break 800 next week, I think the stock moves to $3. But again, this is a hopeium based analysis and I will likely be disappointed again. However, the Thanksgiving week gave me reason to hope. What do you think?
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Post by awesomo on Dec 1, 2018 13:50:15 GMT -5
Not much will happen, these milestones of “700” or “800” only exist in our heads. Reality is, even if we hit 800 relatively soon, that isn’t good enough at this point in time.
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Post by jkendra on Dec 1, 2018 14:11:14 GMT -5
Not much will happen, these milestones of “700” or “800” only exist in our heads. Reality is, even if we hit 800 relatively soon, that isn’t good enough at this point in time. Oh man I guess I'm gonna sell all my shares. Thanks for watching out for me and donating your time to give free investment advice, even on weekends! It's tough being the little guy navigating this dangerous investing environment.   |
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Post by agedhippie on Dec 1, 2018 14:33:05 GMT -5
...So what will the market do next Friday if we skip the 700s altogether and jump to the 800s and reach revenue over $1,000,000? Will this finally break the resolve of the shorts? I’m thinking maybe. If we break 800 next week, I think the stock moves to $3. But again, this is a hopeium based analysis and I will likely be disappointed again. However, the Thanksgiving week gave me reason to hope. What do you think? I think we hit 700 either this week or next week, probably next week. |
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Post by tw12 on Dec 1, 2018 16:02:56 GMT -5
Central,
Thanks for the fine example of your incontrovertible and oft-expressed optimism. Seems you've owned MNKD for over 11 years, over much rough and frustrating terrain, yet remain fully committed to a positive outcome.
Yes, it is personal for many of us (I'm about 7 years behind you), but our optimism is happily based on rock-hard science and a clear understanding of the enormous size and unquestionable need of the market for current and potential MannKind products. Not least, as well, Mike C. is building a terrific team with a good attitude and a solid strategy.
For me, in my own hard-core optimism, that adds up to patiently enjoying this long and complex journey - enjoying it both in terms of the growing prospect of helping millions worldwide to dramatically improve their health, as well as for the prospect of major-league income.
Nice combination!
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Post by awesomo on Dec 1, 2018 16:03:01 GMT -5
Not much will happen, these milestones of “700” or “800” only exist in our heads. Reality is, even if we hit 800 relatively soon, that isn’t good enough at this point in time. Oh man I guess I'm gonna sell all my shares. Thanks for watching out for me and donating your time to give free investment advice, even on weekends! It's tough being the little guy navigating this dangerous investing environment. Way to be irrationally defensive about any sort of criticism of MannKind. |
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Post by mike0475 on Dec 2, 2018 10:34:12 GMT -5
🇧🇷 Is coming too
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Post by porkini on Dec 2, 2018 10:52:00 GMT -5
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Post by matt on Dec 2, 2018 12:08:14 GMT -5
Not much will happen, these milestones of “700” or “800” only exist in our heads. Reality is, even if we hit 800 relatively soon, that isn’t good enough at this point in time. Agree. There is considerable volatility in the script numbers week to week so a single data point, no matter how much improved it may be, will launch the stock to the moon. Similarly, if the scripts come in at 400 it should not tank the stock for the exact same reason. Now if there was a 800 week followed sequentially by 900, 1,050, and 1,200 that might be considered a permanent upward change in the trend line and the stock price might react accordingly. Single data points won't help, multi-week line segments with a distinctly positive slope might. Keep in mind that the market looks at MNKD's script numbers and revenue figures along side those of Humalog and Novolog. When MNKD starts to trend toward $58 million in weekly sales, which is what Lilly and Novo report every week (each of them), then the market will think something has changed in a material way. |
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Post by drman7 on Dec 2, 2018 12:21:43 GMT -5
Not much will happen, these milestones of “700” or “800” only exist in our heads. Reality is, even if we hit 800 relatively soon, that isn’t good enough at this point in time. Agree. There is considerable volatility in the script numbers week to week so a single data point, no matter how much improved it may be, will launch the stock to the moon. Similarly, if the scripts come in at 400 it should not tank the stock for the exact same reason. Now if there was a 800 week followed sequentially by 900, 1,050, and 1,200 that might be considered a permanent upward change in the trend line and the stock price might react accordingly. Single data points won't help, multi-week line segments with a distinctly positive slope might. Keep in mind that the market looks at MNKD's script numbers and revenue figures along side those of Humalog and Novolog. When MNKD starts to trend toward $58 million in weekly sales, which is what Lilly and Novo report every week (each of them), then the market will think something has changed in a material way. Hopefully there is a permanent upward change due to a high volume of DTC, especially after inked deal with United, which provided additional $$$. Lets be hopeful and see a trend beginning Q4 2018 and taking off in Q1 2019. On a side note, I am hoping deal with Brazil will happen tomorrow. |
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Post by slugworth008 on Dec 2, 2018 12:59:14 GMT -5
I like the hopium, however, I've always believed that the short cartel has funding from BP companies that stand to lose significant insulin market share
- not if, but when Afrezza really starts growing. It's the enemy of my enemy is my friend kinda deal with these BP's IMO of course. I am truly surprised
that MNKD hasn't been acquired by a large BP with payor clout - for Afrezza alone with Technosphere being icing on the cake.
Just my take.
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Post by mytakeonit on Dec 2, 2018 17:04:30 GMT -5
on it ...
Also, when MNKD makes $58 million in weekly sales ... no one will be thinking about it ... let alone that "something has changed in a material way"
But, that's "my take on it"
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Post by morfu on Dec 2, 2018 17:09:43 GMT -5
Warning: The following post was generated while under the influence of a large dose of hopeium. I have been off of hopeium for awhile but relapsed. So if you are interested in a balanced viewpoint on this post please do not read on. As I reviewed and thought about the script numbers from yesterday, I found reason to be hopeful for next week. To begin, I believe that the Thanksgiving Week is perhaps the worst week of the year for prescriptions. Most doctor offices are closed Thursday and Friday. Millions of people travel on Wednesday and millions more take the whole week off. So lets look at the numbers: Week ending 11/23 TRx 517 vs 639 TRx $733.78k vs $899.30k NRx 214 va 274 NRx $321.99k vs $372.93k For purposes of my hopeium analysis, I am going to assume that virtually no prescriptions were generated on Thursday and Friday. So for three days, 172 (517/3) prescriptions were generated on each day, Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. If that rate occurred last week, we would have 860 (172x5). Granted, this is probably an overly optimistic analysis. But consider this, a new aggressive TV advertising campaign has been under way for a couple of weeks. The refill rate has continued to improve. Which means that any up swing in new prescriptions could quickly improve Trx. So what will the market do next Friday if we skip the 700s altogether and jump to the 800s and reach revenue over $1,000,000? Will this finally break the resolve of the shorts? I’m thinking maybe. If we break 800 next week, I think the stock moves to $3. But again, this is a hopeium based analysis and I will likely be disappointed again. However, the Thanksgiving week gave me reason to hope. What do you think? Well.. in the "afrezza-script-counts-metrics" (which is member only) is a graph.. it looks like TRx were increasing fairly linearly from 400 to 600 over a period of about 6months.. So, I am guessing that a weekly average above 800 is like 4months out, but we might see the first 800 value in February.. |
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Post by seanismorris on Dec 2, 2018 17:45:46 GMT -5
The glass is half empty.
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Post by porkini on Dec 2, 2018 19:01:54 GMT -5
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