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Post by jkendra on Dec 27, 2018 10:37:18 GMT -5
If they are asking for more shares, they better damn well include on the call specifics as to what the real strategic plan is and how they intend to execute. I have no desire to hear about impediments to making the company successful. He gets paid to overcome impediments. I don't want to hear about insurance either. I want results and despite what he has said on past calls, a big part of those results will be revealed every Friday via Rx data. I would want to know what has changed in terms of tools, claims etc that will allow for better Afrezza sales in the United States in 2019. I would want to know what new initiatives will be undertaken by the sales and marketing departments to allow for better Afrezza sales in the United States in 2019. I would want to know how much cash Mannkind will take in for 2019 due to non-United Therapeutics deals. I would want to know how much cash Mannkind will take in for 2019 from United Therapeutics. If Mike cannot speak to the above, I am not sure what the purpose of authorizing more shares would be. Sure, they can bring in more money but if the company keeps doing the same things, it will keep getting the same results. I need to know there is a viable plan that will improve Afrezza sales and / or allow for opportunities to transition the company to a bus dev entity for TS. Net Afrezza revenue to Mannkind in 2018 will be around $18mm. For 2019, that number needs to triple (US sales) and if it doesn't, then the company needs to transition to an organization that focuses on developing TS deals. The current dual path of Afrezza and TS deals isn't cutting it and yes, I realize the challenges the company and Afrezza have faced but I have been patient and Wall Street quite frankly isn't going to respond any differently than it has in the past if there are not changes in 2019. If Mike doesn't speak to the above on the call and its only a feel good session to try and cool down the heat a bit, then its more of the same and the runway for the same old will run short. How many more years can Afrezza linger in the United States? Unless there is a complete pivot to a development company for TS, Afrezza must succeed in the US. Hopefully there is some great news on the call but I have seen this too many times so my optimism is muted. Afrezza remains the greatest advancement in diabetes care in many many decades. Its clinical performance and economic performance so far have a correlation of -1. "Hopefully there is some great news on the call but I have seen this too many times so my optimism is muted."
Wow, if that's your optimism, I'd sure hate to see what it's like when you rant.
Concern trolling FUD. |
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Post by mannmade on Dec 27, 2018 10:47:53 GMT -5
My expectations of this call are based on Mike responding to the many and numerous calls in social media and directly to him for an explanation of the recent capital raise. I am not expecting he will have an announcement that will make the pain of a near $1 share price go away.
What I am expecting is some form of rational explanation for the raise which may have already been stated with his explanation of the capital markets future outlook. However I am also looking for him to outline in more detail his plans and timeline about how he intends to get mnkd to break even and what we can expect to see in the next 12 months that are 2019.
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Post by tarheelblue004 on Dec 27, 2018 11:27:36 GMT -5
^ Agreed. I think tomorrow's call is about providing the rationale for the capital raise and discussing how it sets us up well for 2019.
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Post by kite on Dec 27, 2018 11:42:38 GMT -5
^ Agreed. I think tomorrow's call is about providing the rationale for the capital raise and discussing how it sets us up well for 2019. The call is next Friday  |
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Post by anderson on Dec 27, 2018 11:55:04 GMT -5
This should be interesting and hopefully exciting. Either great news or a special voted to authorize new shares. I am planning for the latter and hoping Mike delivers on the former. I am getting very pessimistic about MNKD. For the past decade every time something positive happens share price gets driven down and we have to dilute. I really hope they wait at least to the share holders meeting next year before they ask for new authorised shares, but that is definitely the next hit we are going to take. I remember the last emergency meet to authorise new shares as take over protection and I could see it happening again. Do they still have the ATM or did they use it, been a while since I have had time to track closely what MNKD is doing. Getting tired of dollar cost averaging down got a lot of shares now, even more that before the reverse split. |
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Post by akemp3000 on Dec 27, 2018 12:01:52 GMT -5
At the least the conference call being January 4th will give us a full year to manage the tax implications  |
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Post by rockstarrick on Dec 27, 2018 12:03:15 GMT -5
^ Agreed. I think tomorrow's call is about providing the rationale for the capital raise and discussing how it sets us up well for 2019. I believe it is a week from tomorrow, at 9am EST FYI |
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Post by buyitonsale on Dec 27, 2018 12:18:35 GMT -5
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Post by sweedee79 on Dec 27, 2018 12:37:59 GMT -5
As hard as it is to hear, I totally understand Scotta's frustrations.. And we deserve explanations.
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Post by awesomo on Dec 27, 2018 13:02:59 GMT -5
This should be interesting and hopefully exciting. Either great news or a special voted to authorize new shares. I am planning for the latter and hoping Mike delivers on the former. I am getting very pessimistic about MNKD. For the past decade every time something positive happens share price gets driven down and we have to dilute. I really hope they wait at least to the share holders meeting next year before they ask for new authorised shares, but that is definitely the next hit we are going to take. I remember the last emergency meet to authorise new shares as take over protection and I could see it happening again. Do they still have the ATM or did they use it, been a while since I have had time to track closely what MNKD is doing. Getting tired of dollar cost averaging down got a lot of shares now, even more that before the reverse split. If you're including the warrants, the ATM is almost tapped out. So yes, they will propose to authorize shares and it will pass because retail shareholders really have no say in the matter. |
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Post by traderdennis on Dec 27, 2018 13:10:55 GMT -5
Number 3 is going to slow down real fast when MNKD reports Q4. 2017 was 4.5 million in net revenue, 2018 will be a bit shy of 6 million or only a 33% YoY growth. a 121% growth in 2019 and 2020 still only gets to the low 20's in revenue. Quarter cash consumption is around 25 million per quarter, and it does not even account for increased COGS and marketing campaigns. Still a long away from cash flow break event for a quarter. |
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Post by buyitonsale on Dec 27, 2018 13:39:25 GMT -5
Number 3 is going to slow down real fast when MNKD reports Q4. 2017 was 4.5 million in net revenue, 2018 will be a bit shy of 6 million or only a 33% YoY growth. a 121% growth in 2019 and 2020 still only gets to the low 20's in revenue. Quarter cash consumption is around 25 million per quarter, and it does not even account for increased COGS and marketing campaigns. Still a long away from cash flow break event for a quarter. Yes, low 20M based on Afrezza US sales only. I’m betting this number will be higher with ex US sales and we will have a first profitable sales quarter in 2020. Speaking of profitable quarters... Q4 18 ER is coming up. Wonder if under a dollar holds until then ? 😊 |
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Post by morfu on Dec 27, 2018 13:41:07 GMT -5
Number 3 is going to slow down real fast when MNKD reports Q4. 2017 was 4.5 million in net revenue, 2018 will be a bit shy of 6 million or only a 33% YoY growth. a 121% growth in 2019 and 2020 still only gets to the low 20's in revenue. Quarter cash consumption is around 25 million per quarter, and it does not even account for increased COGS and marketing campaigns. Still a long away from cash flow break event for a quarter.
Well it looks like the sales nicely doubled per year since Jan 2017:
If that would continue for another 12month we are getting very close to a break even.. but even at a slower rate, it seems we are getting there.. "Net Afrezza revenue to Mannkind in 2018 will be around $18mm. For 2019, that number needs to triple (US sales)"
that is unlikely! But I dont see any problem with waiting a year or two more.. as long as there is the prospect for a breakeven and better soon.. and so far the sales trend is quite clear! (which is why I questioned this desperation sale just before Christmas!)
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Post by kc on Dec 27, 2018 14:01:14 GMT -5
Only Mike will be presenting! I hope that this shelf offering of 26,666,667 common shares will turn out to be a 10% co-promotion partner buy-in Three Years from the date of the Sanofi termination notice. Hmmmm. I have to wonder about the timing of this announcement. Lets be hopeful there is something good unfolding.
January 5th, 2016 Sanofi terminates the agreement.
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Post by traderdennis on Dec 27, 2018 14:08:20 GMT -5
Number 3 is going to slow down real fast when MNKD reports Q4. 2017 was 4.5 million in net revenue, 2018 will be a bit shy of 6 million or only a 33% YoY growth. a 121% growth in 2019 and 2020 still only gets to the low 20's in revenue. Quarter cash consumption is around 25 million per quarter, and it does not even account for increased COGS and marketing campaigns. Still a long away from cash flow break event for a quarter. Yes, low 20M based on Afrezza US sales only. I’m betting this number will be higher with ex US sales and we will have a first profitable sales quarter in 2020. Speaking of profitable quarters... Q4 18 ER is coming up. Wonder if under a dollar holds until then ? 😊 I think most of the carnage has happened. I would expect the conference call to discuss the latest funding. Right at the end Mike will announce that the board is requesting an increase in authorized share count. Price should stay around 90-95 cents up until earnings release. If Brazil approves comes in before the earnings report, look for a short lived spike and then return to the trading range of 90 cents -1.00. |
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