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Post by Clement on Jan 4, 2019 9:55:15 GMT -5
I was glad to hear about focusing on smaller territories. And DTC now (Jan 14) rather than later.
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Post by travis1953 on Jan 4, 2019 9:58:08 GMT -5
I don't understand. What do you mean by DTC now rather than later?
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Post by cretin11 on Jan 4, 2019 10:02:50 GMT -5
I don't understand. What do you mean by DTC now rather than later? DTC now is why the capital raise happened now instead of waiting a few months, according to Mike. |
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Post by centralcoastinvestor on Jan 4, 2019 10:04:02 GMT -5
I thought it was a good CC as well. He answered the questions directly and shows that he has a game plan. Does dilution suck, without question. But if he didn’t do this raise and then 6 months from now, if the markets were worse, then people would pick Mike apart for having not raised money when he could. Everybody around here acts like it would be so easy to be CEO. Mike is handling a dozen spinning plates simultaneously and folks around here act as though they could easily handle it. Mike confirmed for me today he does know what he is doing.
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Post by Clement on Jan 4, 2019 10:05:11 GMT -5
Mike talked about cgms and said, "Now is time to raise awareness for Afrezza." "focus on 30 states". And major TV campaign beginning Jan 14.
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Post by esstan2001 on Jan 4, 2019 10:11:13 GMT -5
I thought it was a good CC as well. He answered the questions directly and shows that he has a game plan. Does dilution suck, without question. But if he didn’t do this raise and then 6 months from now, if the markets were worse, then people would pick Mike apart for having not raised money when he could. Everybody around here acts like it would be so easy to be CEO. Mike is handling a dozen spinning plates simultaneously and folks around here act as though they could easily handle it. Mike confirmed for me today he does know what he is doing. He also sounded pretty forthright regarding how he has been beaten up on his failures / goals not met over the past year. Now with a clear runway for 18 months to DTC- juice Afrezza sales and the potential for pipeline deals, followed by milestone / royalty revenues ramping 18+ months out, he has his chance to execute and demonstrate to us why he is CEO.
MC don't let us down :-)
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Post by morfu on Jan 4, 2019 10:18:48 GMT -5
I thought it was a good CC as well. He answered the questions directly and shows that he has a game plan. Does dilution suck, without question. But if he didn’t do this raise and then 6 months from now, if the markets were worse, then people would pick Mike apart for having not raised money when he could. Everybody around here acts like it would be so easy to be CEO. Mike is handling a dozen spinning plates simultaneously and folks around here act as though they could easily handle it. Mike confirmed for me today he does know what he is doing.
>> But if he didn’t do this raise and then 6 months from now, if the markets were worse
My problem is, that I dont take this for a valid argument! Did you look at the numbers, the trend in RX and such? There is no way, that the numbers are worse in 6month than now and this company survives! I dont buy giving away !!!20%!!! of the company for that, sorry, but until I hear a better reason, I think he was bought!
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Post by Deleted on Jan 4, 2019 10:20:16 GMT -5
I thought it was a good CC as well. He answered the questions directly and shows that he has a game plan. Does dilution suck, without question. But if he didn’t do this raise and then 6 months from now, if the markets were worse, then people would pick Mike apart for having not raised money when he could. Everybody around here acts like it would be so easy to be CEO. Mike is handling a dozen spinning plates simultaneously and folks around here act as though they could easily handle it. Mike confirmed for me today he does know what he is doing. He also sounded pretty forthright regarding how he has been beaten up on his failures / goals not met over the past year. Now with a clear runway for 18 months to DTC- juice Afrezza sales and the potential for pipeline deals, followed by milestone / royalty revenues ramping 18+ months out, he has his chance to execute and demonstrate to us why he is CEO.
MC don't let us down :-)
I won't evaluate the call but I will evaluate Mannkind's performance. Since Mike is no longer a neophyte to Mannkind, 2019 is the year Afrezza sales need to ramp and it appears the company has made adjustments to do so. We should hit $17mm in US net Afrezza sales in 2018. At a minimum, for 2019 that number needs to be at least $50mm in Afrezza revenue from the United States. Each Friday, we get a progress report to see how things are going. Assume we get some $$ from the United deal in 2019 as well. Mike mentioned Migraines, Nausea / Oncology, Cystic Fibrosis and an unnamed product; we will see what kind of deals and cash those bring in 2019. He mentioned JPMorgan Healthcare conference; is Mannkind presenting or his he attending hoping to get some meetings? Lastly, no question on the call as to why executives (except a modest purchase some time ago by Mike) have not bought shares. That speaks volumes and please, no comments as to how they have skin in the game from their options. Skin in the game is buying shares with their own money. I would have liked to hear a question to Mike along the lines of "Sounds like Mannkind is making great progress, is there any reason why your top executives would not be willing to purchase 100,000 shares of the company" and after asking the question, simply shut up and listen to his response. |
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Post by esstan2001 on Jan 4, 2019 10:25:24 GMT -5
I thought it was a good CC as well. He answered the questions directly and shows that he has a game plan. Does dilution suck, without question. But if he didn’t do this raise and then 6 months from now, if the markets were worse, then people would pick Mike apart for having not raised money when he could. Everybody around here acts like it would be so easy to be CEO. Mike is handling a dozen spinning plates simultaneously and folks around here act as though they could easily handle it. Mike confirmed for me today he does know what he is doing. He also sounded pretty forthright regarding how he has been beaten up on his failures / goals not met over the past year. Now with a clear runway for 18 months to DTC- juice Afrezza sales and the potential for pipeline deals, followed by milestone / royalty revenues ramping 18+ months out, he has his chance to execute and demonstrate to us why he is CEO.
MC don't let us down :-)
The other thing that sounded moderately promising is what was stated regarding required insurance pre-auth reduction (now ~ 50%), PBM new contract negotiations for 2019 opening up, and state(?) lawsuits filed against the PBMs on pricing (or availability) bringing more attention to this and giving MNKD some leverage or visibility. Also said something regarding pulling in more widgets to sell to give added insurer negotiating leverage on coverage, something about either international or co-promote deals to the same multi-product sales ends... |
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Good CC
Jan 4, 2019 10:28:33 GMT -5
Post by esstan2001 on Jan 4, 2019 10:28:33 GMT -5
He also sounded pretty forthright regarding how he has been beaten up on his failures / goals not met over the past year. Now with a clear runway for 18 months to DTC- juice Afrezza sales and the potential for pipeline deals, followed by milestone / royalty revenues ramping 18+ months out, he has his chance to execute and demonstrate to us why he is CEO.
MC don't let us down :-)
I won't evaluate the call but I will evaluate Mannkind's performance. Since Mike is no longer a neophyte to Mannkind, 2019 is the year Afrezza sales need to ramp and it appears the company has made adjustments to do so. We should hit $17mm in US net Afrezza sales in 2018. At a minimum, for 2019 that number needs to be at least $50mm in Afrezza revenue from the United States. Each Friday, we get a progress report to see how things are going. Assume we get some $$ from the United deal in 2019 as well. Mike mentioned Migraines, Nausea / Oncology, Cystic Fibrosis and an unnamed product; we will see what kind of deals and cash those bring in 2019. He mentioned JPMorgan Healthcare conference; is Mannkind presenting or his he attending hoping to get some meetings? Lastly, no question on the call as to why executives (except a modest purchase some time ago by Mike) have not bought shares. That speaks volumes and please, no comments as to how they have skin in the game from their options. Skin in the game is buying shares with their own money. I would have liked to hear a question to Mike along the lines of "Sounds like Mannkind is making great progress, is there any reason why your top executives would not be willing to purchase 100,000 shares of the company" and after asking the question, simply shut up and listen to his response. Excellent post / points. |
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Post by mannmade on Jan 4, 2019 10:42:43 GMT -5
Overall I thought the cc was good and went mostly as expected. My one question is, if I understood correctly, that mnkd starts the year with $70m with another $37.5m in milestones over next 18 months and is financially set to mid 2020, where is the money coming from with increased ad spending and R&D on four new molecules in addition to the 2nd Uthr deal.
Seems mnkd is counting on warrants at $1.60 for another $40m or so and increased Afrezza sales. Is that enough? I don’t know. Perhaps there will be one or two molecule deals during this time but they seem a lot harder to come by than I thought they would be. Anyway, I have confidence mnkd will get there. GLTAL’s!!!!
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Post by thekid2499 on Jan 4, 2019 10:51:05 GMT -5
I wanted to get my thoughts down on electronic paper after the CC. I didn’t love or hate the CC. It is past time though that Mannkind executes and delivers instead of offering promises and potential for future glory.
1. Financials
With the latest raise, Mike said that we are funded through mid-2020. He said that we have 70 million in cash at beginning of 2019 and he expects another $37.5 million in TrepT milestones in the next 18 months. I’m assuming he means that plus any revenues from Afrezza will get us through mid-2020. He didn’t ask for more shares being authorized and didn’t even mention that at all in his scripted comments or in answering the questions. He did mention about getting shares back over the next year if another capital raise is needed down the line. He lost me a bit here in terms of how many shares we are getting back.
2. Technosphere Molecules
He mentioned moving forward on 7 molecules and then identified four of them (migraine, chemo, cystic fibrosis and undisclosed). Based on his later comments, I would assume RLS is #5. What are the other two?
3. Expansion of TV Campaign and Focusing on 30 States
Mike mentioned that we will vastly expand our TV campaign starting in the middle of the month and that we are exiting 14 states to focus on 30 states where there is the most potential for Afrezza scripts and where over 90% of Afrezza scripts currently derive. I think the idea with this focus is to show that Afrezza is commercially viable if there are adequate resources put into it. By focusing on a reduced number of territories, I believe Mannkind is trying to show this in hopes of finding a future partner for Afrezza with deeper pockets than Mannkind to promote Afrezza.
4. International Expansion
It sounds like Brazil is close but not across the finish line. Mike alluded to the holidays as a reason for the delay. He stated that he expects to file in Canada in the first half of the year and Europe later in 2019. He mentioned India at what point but did not provide an update.
Feel free to add to the above or correct me if I’m wrong on anything.
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Good CC
Jan 4, 2019 10:53:03 GMT -5
Post by #NoMoreNeedles on Jan 4, 2019 10:53:03 GMT -5
Would you expect massive insider buying to start now?
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Post by rockstarrick on Jan 4, 2019 10:57:09 GMT -5
Would you expect massive insider buying to start now? It would certainly help !, every penny that was spent on a trip should be doubled and spent on shares, by whoever participated. |
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Good CC
Jan 4, 2019 11:10:10 GMT -5
Post by wsulylecoug on Jan 4, 2019 11:10:10 GMT -5
The 7 molecules they have moving forward include insulin and trep, if I understood it correctly. It’s a total of 7, I don’t think it was referring to 7 “new” molecules. Slides haven’t been posted yet, but I’d guess those will add clarity. I wasn’t able to follow the slides during the call either.
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