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Post by cjm18 on Jan 10, 2019 11:29:47 GMT -5
How?
+70m ( current cash)
+37.5m (3 uthr milestones)
+30m (new uthr molecule)
-10m ( r and d for new molecule)
-14.2m (2019 amphastar insulin)
-13.5m ( 2019 Deerfield debt)
-5m ( afrezza milestone to Deerfield).
The amph insulin contract needs to be changed. Mike alluded to this in the call.
Some of the Deerfield debt needs to be paid down with shares if the stock is trading higher.
2018 Guidance for Net cash used in operating activities was 90m-100m.
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Post by casualinvestor on Jan 10, 2019 14:53:45 GMT -5
You're ignoring sales. Gross sales in 2018 were ~$36M, net sales will be around $17-18M.
Assuming over 100% revenue growth from 2018->2019 (note that gross revenue growth from 2017->2018 was well over 100%), that's over $35M in 2019, and more in 2020
He's also expecting the warrants to to exercised
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Post by cjm18 on Jan 10, 2019 14:58:49 GMT -5
The call transcript says warrants would get us further than mid 2020.
90m-100m includes afrezza sales.
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Post by Thundersnow on Jan 10, 2019 18:18:06 GMT -5
You can add another $12.5M (1Q20) at a minimum and possibly another $12.5M if they can get to July 2020. I believe the $2.38 warrants are dead and the $1.60 warrants will be exercised. I don't see MNKD accommodating Deerfield anymore. They have hand strapped them far too long.
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Post by travis1953 on Jan 10, 2019 19:45:28 GMT -5
What are the UTHR milestones?
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Post by brotherm1 on Jan 10, 2019 22:00:33 GMT -5
You can add another $12.5M (1Q20) at a minimum and possibly another $12.5M if they can get to July 2020. I believe the $2.38 warrants are dead and the $1.60 warrants will be exercised. I don't see MNKD accommodating Deerfield anymore. They have hand strapped them far too long. you lost me there. Where do the $12.5M’s come from? |
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Post by sportsrancho on Jan 10, 2019 22:07:22 GMT -5
You can add another $12.5M (1Q20) at a minimum and possibly another $12.5M if they can get to July 2020. I believe the $2.38 warrants are dead and the $1.60 warrants will be exercised. I don't see MNKD accommodating Deerfield anymore. They have hand strapped them far too long. you lost me there. Where do the $12.5M’s come from? TrepT split into 2 mile stone payments? |
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Post by brotherm1 on Jan 10, 2019 22:34:36 GMT -5
Not sure Sport but I think CJ might have already listed those in his initial post above ($25M total) from UTHR ?
I don’t think we herein calculated in the amount of the 26.666M warrants possibly being excercised at $1.60 which would be $42.6M. And they could be excercised anytime at $1.60 or above.
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Post by brotherm1 on Jan 10, 2019 23:03:48 GMT -5
“+70m ( current cash)
+25m (2 uthr milestones)
+30m (new uthr molecule)
-10m ( r and d for new molecule)
-14.2m (2019 amphastar insulin)
-13.5m ( 2019 Deerfield debt)
-5m ( afrezza milestone to deerfield)”
= $82M
+ “Assuming over 100% revenue growth from 2018->2019 (note that gross revenue growth from 2017->2018 was well over 100%), that's over $35M in 2019, and more in 2020”: $35M 2019 + >=$17.5M 1st half 2020 = >$52M
+ >$42M in $1.60 warrants
= > $176M through June 2020/18 months = roughly $9.77M burnable cash per month through June 2020
(barring the unforeseen and not knowing though what else we might have due the first half of 2020, but good enough for me to fall asleep with tonight).
(cash burn of $9M pm would give us another month and a half past June 2020 and burn of $8M pm could get us 22 months down the road from here through October 2020 (again barring my unforseen).
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Post by mannmade on Jan 11, 2019 10:27:46 GMT -5
Think you are staying current approximate cash burn. However you forget increase in marketing costs w new and expanded campaign on television as well as increased research costs for new molecules.
However, Mike also mentioned renegotiating the amph agreement and if they chose to pay DF in stock again to preserve cash that would be good by me.
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Post by traderdennis on Jan 11, 2019 11:08:08 GMT -5
Not sure Sport but I think CJ might have already listed those in his initial post above ($25M total) from UTHR ? I don’t think we herein calculated in the amount of the 26.666M warrants possibly being excercised at $1.60 which would be $42.6M. And they could be excercised anytime at $1.60 or above. While they could be exercised anytime they are not likely exercised until December 2019. Just like the 2.38 warrants if the stock price goes above 1.90 the hedge fund play is to short the stock and either cover with warrants or to cover below the warrant price. |
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Post by Thundersnow on Jan 11, 2019 11:43:46 GMT -5
UTHR Milestones total $50M.
2019 = 2 payments @ $12.5M each
2020 = 2 payments @ $12.5M each
Assumption is that payments will be made every 6 months.
CJ did not include 2020 payments will get them to Mid 2020.
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Post by compound26 on Jan 11, 2019 11:59:33 GMT -5
UTHR Milestones total $50M. 2019 = 2 payments @ $12.5M each 2020 = 2 payments @ $12.5M each Assumption is that payments will be made every 6 months. CJ did not include 2020 payments will get them to Mid 2020. Yes. Mike C. clearly stated in the Jan. 4 conference call that Mannkind is expecting to get $37.5M (which clearly refers to three installments of $12.5M each) in milestone payments from UTHR within the next 18 months (i.e. before mid 2020). |
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Post by mango on Jan 11, 2019 12:17:24 GMT -5
After the peds trial concludes, and Afrezza is approved for peds, the net revenue from scripts will grow exponentially, IMO.
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Post by goyocafe on Jan 11, 2019 12:47:37 GMT -5
After the peds trial concludes, and Afrezza is approved for peds, the net revenue from scripts will grow exponentially, IMO. They should have started right after approval. |
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