Post by silentbob on Aug 6, 2014 6:10:32 GMT -5
Some notes:
- While the wording is ambiguous, I think the only logical conclusion to be made is that the 120million € number is the minimum aggregate amount over the whole five year span of the agreement, for the following reasons:
1) If the amount was yearly, it would more then double MNKD's cash burn, which would be an unwise risk at this point
2) Likewise, such a quantity would almost double Amphastar's revenues ($229m in 2013). Why would Mannkind make such a big deal with such a small company? It does not seem realistic to me.
3) This minimum would represent $5 billion or more in Afrezza revenues, which we will not likely sell from the first year (2015).
4) If spread out over 5 years, the supply allows an average minimum of $1billion in Afrezza sales, which is reasonable for the first few years.
- The partner may have been chosen, or if there are still multiple in the running, it is likely that they do not have insulin production capacity. My best guess would be that negotiations with the preferred partner are very late stage and the partner may have asked to prove that MNKD can guarantee a certain minimum supply of Afrezza. However, even if that is the case then going from term sheets to a signed agreement can still take weeks. I hope something breaks soon but by Monday may be a little optimistic.
- The Pfizer insulin stash may have been refused by the FDA, or at the very least its usage is in doubt.
Let us hope we can still use it in other regions.
- While the wording is ambiguous, I think the only logical conclusion to be made is that the 120million € number is the minimum aggregate amount over the whole five year span of the agreement, for the following reasons:
1) If the amount was yearly, it would more then double MNKD's cash burn, which would be an unwise risk at this point
2) Likewise, such a quantity would almost double Amphastar's revenues ($229m in 2013). Why would Mannkind make such a big deal with such a small company? It does not seem realistic to me.
3) This minimum would represent $5 billion or more in Afrezza revenues, which we will not likely sell from the first year (2015).
4) If spread out over 5 years, the supply allows an average minimum of $1billion in Afrezza sales, which is reasonable for the first few years.
- The partner may have been chosen, or if there are still multiple in the running, it is likely that they do not have insulin production capacity. My best guess would be that negotiations with the preferred partner are very late stage and the partner may have asked to prove that MNKD can guarantee a certain minimum supply of Afrezza. However, even if that is the case then going from term sheets to a signed agreement can still take weeks. I hope something breaks soon but by Monday may be a little optimistic.
- The Pfizer insulin stash may have been refused by the FDA, or at the very least its usage is in doubt.
Let us hope we can still use it in other regions.
