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Post by otherottawaguy on Feb 27, 2019 15:06:34 GMT -5
Just looking over some of the comments over the past week and getting an uneasy feeling that something is cooking other than the good results. Points I am considering: - Upgrade from Analyst to 3.00 (ish)
- Some twitterotti spouting off that it would be 2.00 by Friday (and we got very close today)
- Complaints on here by one our group that they had tried to borrow shares but none avail (even though lending rates seem very low suggesting good supply)
- Good results for 2018
- Last round of Warrants now in the money.
Conclusion:
I think once those warrant holders have taken their pound of flesh, that this is going to drop back below the 1.70 range. Think they have about one more chance at playing this thing before the next round of positive announcements start in Q2.
Opinions?
OOG
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Post by sportsrancho on Feb 27, 2019 15:09:45 GMT -5
They may not exercise them until the PPS is it a higher level, if they do it would be dilutive, but it would give us so much extra money that would be bullish and bring the stock price back up. IMO
They didn’t short them when the PPS got above $1.60..they may be just many more shorts getting out.
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Post by mannmade on Feb 27, 2019 15:23:06 GMT -5
My understanding is that if warrant holders were to use warrants to cover a short position they would cover at the $1.60 warrant price. So if they are looking to short, seems would make sense to let stock climb as high as can before shorting if no news.
And if there is news they also win! But we do too!
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Post by sportsrancho on Feb 27, 2019 15:27:17 GMT -5
I don’t think so, they would’ve shorted around $1.70 rinse and repeat, there’s too many other shorts getting out, I don’t think they’re going to be able to do it. They can let it run now and get more for their money.
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Post by peppy on Feb 27, 2019 15:33:38 GMT -5
Just looking over some of the comments over the past week and getting an uneasy feeling that something is cooking other than the good results. Points I am considering: - Upgrade from Analyst to 3.00 (ish)
- Some twitterotti spouting off that it would be 2.00 by Friday (and we got very close today)
- Complaints on here by one our group that they had tried to borrow shares but none avail (even though lending rates seem very low suggesting good supply)
- Good results for 2018
- Last round of Warrants now in the money.
Conclusion:
I think once those warrant holders have taken their pound of flesh, that this is going to drop back below the 1.70 range. Think they have about one more chance at playing this thing before the next round of positive announcements start in Q2.
Opinions?
OOG
I am sticking to the chart pattern, which to my eye balls saids up. Additionally, people joining Afrezza face book page at a good clip. Afrezza has users.... it seems to be catching on. Price is always ahead of news is my take. Celo's work: 1. Afrezza w/680 members, (This is from January 17th). So 100 new members in 40 days. 6 members have been added each of the last couple days. The snowball is growing rapidly. Friends are being added at a rapid rate. 786 members today. Members joining at a pretty good clip.   |
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Post by mnkdfann on Feb 27, 2019 15:53:28 GMT -5
Just looking over some of the comments over the past week and getting an uneasy feeling that something is cooking other than the good results. Points I am considering: - Upgrade from Analyst to 3.00 (ish)
- Some twitterotti spouting off that it would be 2.00 by Friday (and we got very close today)
- Complaints on here by one our group that they had tried to borrow shares but none avail (even though lending rates seem very low suggesting good supply)
- Good results for 2018
- Last round of Warrants now in the money.
Conclusion:
I think once those warrant holders have taken their pound of flesh, that this is going to drop back below the 1.70 range. Think they have about one more chance at playing this thing before the next round of positive announcements start in Q2.
Opinions?
OOG
The last warrant deal was a share and warrant deal, right? A purchase of 26,666,667 shares at $1.5, each coming with a warrant at $1.6. Assuming they want to sell the shares they purchased, and then short more (against the warrants), there could be several more days of volume like yesterday and today. Keep moving the price up so the shares can be unloaded, then short against the warrants. I acknowledge that mine is a simplistic analysis (in that it is not an all or nothing thing ... they can sell some shares, and short against just some of the warrants, depending on their objective and risk tolerance). |
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Post by Thundersnow on Feb 27, 2019 16:17:18 GMT -5
They may not exercise them until the PPS is it a higher level, if they do it would be dilutive, but it would give us so much extra money that would be bullish and bring the stock price back up. IMO They didn’t short them when the PPS got above $1.60..they may be just many more shorts getting out. The warrants are included in the OS Count. If you look at the Balance Sheet you will see the difference between the EPS Share count and the Outstanding Shares. I think the WH will wait until the deadline ($1.60's @ April) to exercise. Also the same for the DF $2.60's (Oct. expiration). |
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Post by Thundersnow on Feb 27, 2019 16:18:56 GMT -5
My understanding is that if warrant holders were to use warrants to cover a short position they would cover at the $1.60 warrant price. So if they are looking to short, seems would make sense to let stock climb as high as can before shorting if no news. And if there is news they also win! But we do too! Yeah but I don't see them shorting because if the stock is lower than the strike price at the time of expiration then they lose and are forced to buy the warrants at a loss. |
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Post by mannmade on Feb 27, 2019 16:29:04 GMT -5
Then they just replace shares at market value and it cost them even less. Warrants are insurance. Also I believe the $2.38 warrants expire in April and the $1.60 warrants expire at end of December 2019.
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Post by matt on Feb 27, 2019 16:44:26 GMT -5
My understanding is that if warrant holders were to use warrants to cover a short position they would cover at the $1.60 warrant price. So if they are looking to short, seems would make sense to let stock climb as high as can before shorting if no news. And if there is news they also win! But we do too! Yeah but I don't see them shorting because if the stock is lower than the strike price at the time of expiration then they lose and are forced to buy the warrants at a loss. The warrants cover their downside. A warrant holder today could sell short and receive $1.87 with an obligation to replace that share later. Worst case, the stock stays near the current price or increases in which case the warrant holder exercises the warrant for $1.60 and pockets 27 cents in profit (minus some costs). However, if the stock goes down to $1.50, the warrant holder can cover at the market and make 37 cents (the warrant expires worthless). The big payday is if the stock price swing up and down. If the warrant holder sells today at $1.87 and covers at market at $1.50, the make the 37 cents and still have the warrant. If some more good news comes out that bumps the price back up to $1.80, the warrant holder can play the game again. And again. So long as each short transaction is slightly above the warrant price, it is a guaranteed win for the warrant holder. The more volatile the stock is on either side of the exercise price, the more can be made. |
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Post by letitride on Feb 27, 2019 16:53:47 GMT -5
Right before BP makes an offer we cant refuse. Fundamentals are now swinging to our side, they can play but Mikes got this. Either way we win!
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Post by celo on Feb 27, 2019 17:19:30 GMT -5
Yeah we are going to be here a while. There was greater than 8 million of volume today. Probably were able to unload a few million of the 26 million in the last 2 days of trading. Rant time. Oh OH Ozempic is a a novo piece of garbage, but it is a new drug for type 2 with hundreds of millions of dollars in sales per quarter. Claims to reduce weight but does so by increasing nausea every day. How FUN! Read the comments of the article I have attached if you want to feel sick, also. tcoyd.org/2018/03/ozempic-sugar-coated-success-or-the-best-of-its-kind/Point being is Afrezza barely musters 5 million/qtr and this daily dose of barf gets 100 of millions of dollars/qtr. Thanks insurers/doctors/ and especially pharmaceutical companies for making millions of type 2s sick on a daily basis. Oh yeah and look at some of the comments for their A1C (somewhere around 8). |
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Post by peppy on Feb 27, 2019 17:29:11 GMT -5
Yeah we are going to be here a while. There was greater than 8 million of volume today. Probably were able to unload a few million of the 26 million in the last 2 days of trading. Rant time. Oh OH Ozempic is a a novo piece of garbage, but it is a new drug for type 2 with hundreds of millions of dollars in sales per quarter. Claims to reduce weight but does so by increasing nausea every day. How FUN! Read the comments of the article I have attached if you want to feel sick, also. tcoyd.org/2018/03/ozempic-sugar-coated-success-or-the-best-of-its-kind/Point being is Afrezza barely musters 5 million/qtr and this daily dose of barf gets 100 of millions of dollars/qtr. Thanks insurers/doctors/ and especially pharmaceutical companies for making millions of type 2s sick on a daily basis. Oh yeah and look at some of the comments for their A1C (somewhere around 8). off topic, same crap different day Novo can afford the 50% to 75% rebate to the pharmacy purchasing managers to be on the formulary. I get the poison lowered hbA1c. Makes me wonder what physicians think of type two's. Verbal diarrhea in warning. It causes tumors, but we don't know if it will cause a tumor in you.  www.novo-pi.com/ozempic.pdf |
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Post by traderdennis on Feb 27, 2019 17:43:53 GMT -5
Just looking over some of the comments over the past week and getting an uneasy feeling that something is cooking other than the good results. Points I am considering: - Upgrade from Analyst to 3.00 (ish)
- Some twitterotti spouting off that it would be 2.00 by Friday (and we got very close today)
- Complaints on here by one our group that they had tried to borrow shares but none avail (even though lending rates seem very low suggesting good supply)
- Good results for 2018
- Last round of Warrants now in the money.
Conclusion:
I think once those warrant holders have taken their pound of flesh, that this is going to drop back below the 1.70 range. Think they have about one more chance at playing this thing before the next round of positive announcements start in Q2.
Opinions?
OOG
The last warrant deal was a share and warrant deal, right? A purchase of 26,666,667 shares at $1.5, each coming with a warrant at $1.6. Assuming they want to sell the shares they purchased, and then short more (against the warrants), there could be several more days of volume like yesterday and today. Keep moving the price up so the shares can be unloaded, then short against the warrants. I acknowledge that mine is a simplistic analysis (in that it is not an all or nothing thing ... they can sell some shares, and short against just some of the warrants, depending on their objective and risk tolerance). I agree 100%. I don't believe those who funded the financing round were able to pre short it, at least not many shares. I believe now they are unwingin the long positions. As for locates, I was able to find 6K shares through wedbush this morning. I did not use them. |
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Post by traderdennis on Feb 27, 2019 17:46:49 GMT -5
Yeah but I don't see them shorting because if the stock is lower than the strike price at the time of expiration then they lose and are forced to buy the warrants at a loss. The warrants cover their downside. A warrant holder today could sell short and receive $1.87 with an obligation to replace that share later. Worst case, the stock stays near the current price or increases in which case the warrant holder exercises the warrant for $1.60 and pockets 27 cents in profit (minus some costs). However, if the stock goes down to $1.50, the warrant holder can cover at the market and make 37 cents (the warrant expires worthless). The big payday is if the stock price swing up and down. If the warrant holder sells today at $1.87 and covers at market at $1.50, the make the 37 cents and still have the warrant. If some more good news comes out that bumps the price back up to $1.80, the warrant holder can play the game again. And again. So long as each short transaction is slightly above the warrant price, it is a guaranteed win for the warrant holder. The more volatile the stock is on either side of the exercise price, the more can be made. Someone also mentioned the $2 calls being active today. Without looking at the tape, a warrant holder can sell for around 45-55 cents per share pocket the premium and cover for an addtional 40 cents if it excercises. If I held warrants, I would use both strategies short stock or short call options. |
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