|
|
Post by in search of the truth on Aug 6, 2014 20:50:44 GMT -5
I am long MNKD and originally bought January 2014 options, anticipating a 2013 approval. When that didn't happen, I sold the 2014's and bought 2015's. Lots of time to get a decision and get the product to market! We lived through the August 2013 results of the new additional studies requested by the FDA (and somewhat designed by them) and since the results were "good" we expected some semblance of success manifested in the PPS, but it really didn't happen. And then we suffered through 6 months of silence as we waited on the PDUFA date, only to find out that the FDA did not appear to do anything with the application for 5.5 months, except schedule an ADCOM for two weeks before the PDUFA date. When the ADCOM voted almost unanimously to recommend Afrezza for Type 1 and Type 2 diabetes, we again expected some recognition of this in the PPS, but again not much happened, and we had to suffer through another 90 day extension of the PDUFA date. When the drug was finally approved a couple of weeks early, we again expected success, but no, now we had to wait on a partner. My fear is that the shorts, who are probably over 72 million shares by now, are dead set on destroying this drug and the company behind it, even though by almost everyone's due diligence analysis over the past several years, it would be a game changer for diabetics. It appears that this vendetta will never end. When a partner(s) is named within the next week, I predict that some other short tactic will suppress the PPS (the partner is not "robust" enough or did not pay enough money "up front" or bought Afrezza to bury it, etc.) and we will await 1Q2015 earning reports in about May of 2015 to see if Mannkind is getting any traction. Will there ever be a pop on the PPS and if so, what will the catalyst be? And will the shorts ever have to suffer through a short squeeze or is there some exit strategy that is known only to them that will allows them to never suffer the consequences of selling stock that they do not own?
|
|
|
|
Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 6, 2014 22:35:46 GMT -5
Without duplicating the whole quote, just taking a step back and looking at the sequence you presented and your "worries" that the shorts will in effect never get punished, answer me this, has the pps risen (maybe not quite what you were expecting) over 400% from the end of 2012 through those binary events? Do you think that in the end the market is efficient (in other words that the true valuation of what is to come will not eventually be realized based on forward looking and actual earnings)? What do you think the current carrying cost is for the borrowed shares on that 70+ million? The longer and higher the price grinds up who do you think has more pressure to deal with those costs? The only longs like you have stated that have to sweat the time element are the ones that have continually purchased call options...yes they are looking to take advantage of the leverage rather than owning the shares outright but the company nor Al can worry about that. They just continue to stay focused on the milestones and the rest will take its course and eventually the efficiency of the free market will also take its course on those that bet against him no matter who it is. (Hopefully those 2015's will pay off well for you  |
|
|
|
Post by babaoriley on Aug 7, 2014 1:12:44 GMT -5
Hey, in search, welcome! Like your post, don't agree with all of it, but do understand and empathize with you. Unfortunately, bottom line, the shorts don't play as fair as the longs. And they seem to get away with it just fine.
"Short" of a great partnership(s) with a grand announcement and somewhat detailed and grandiose plans for the immediate future, I think we may have to wait for revenue. One way or the other, I think shorts are going to escape without nearly the damage they so richly deserve.
|
|
|
|
Post by paulie on Aug 7, 2014 2:45:16 GMT -5
We may be spending too much time worrying about the "shorts" anyway. At some point, this becomes a loser for them. FUD is very effective during a quiet period with no earnings. Soon, there should be some earnings as a partner will (more than likely) pony up a "deposit" to be part of the Afrezza Game. I think that this is really a no-brainer. It may be in the form of stock, cash, or even a B/O.
There are many other stocks that are better candidates for shorting. Look at Facebook. In 2012, it was offered at IPO for $38... then it went down into the mid 20's because (like here) there were concerns about how FB would monetize their business. Nobody denied that FB has revolutionized social media, but WS wasn't impressed in the summer of 2012. There was a lot of hootin' and cackling about FB being a WS flop and how it was a loser investment. How did that work out for FB longs?
$38 in May, 2012
$72 in August, 2014
Not bad.
It is also trading at 78 X earnings which gives me cause for concern.. but FB can actually justify it considering their position in the realm... at least for now.
A lot of the bears think it is ridiculous to question a 10 times earnings model with this stock. Why?
Then there are those that say that Doctors won't prescribe this because of the "black box" warnings. Maybe there are a lot of stupid people that play the Biotech game that sit at their desk going... "oh no.. black box.. sell this now!!". But... what % of the US market would need to be captured to get to.. say... a $25 stock price in one year? Dr. Tran (I think) said that 500K users of Afrezza justified a $10 SP.
Folks have to play the long game. It is quite possible that the stock goes up only modestly on even great news. Do you sell and put your money in another Biotech? Why? Is there a better team out there in the field? Perhaps we wait for the 1st Quarter earnings or even 2nd quarter. Is a 5X return worth that wait? I would think that it is.
One other thing. Look for the partner that will do the best job to sell Afrezza and not the one who flashed the most cash. No matter what happens on Monday, don't be tempted to just dump the stock and go play ball somewhere else until next May. August 11th isn't the last word on this stock.. in fact, it is just the beginning.
|
|
|
|
Post by liane on Aug 7, 2014 4:55:36 GMT -5
paulie,
Nice post! I'm not usually the "spell-check" police, but did want to point out it's "Afrezza", not "Afrezza".
|
|
|
|
Post by marketpanda on Aug 7, 2014 5:02:49 GMT -5
I don't really think this is a binary event... There seems to be such a precise and calculated time line unfolding and such tight-lips all around that I have to believe that there is something major in the works, just look at the series of events that lead up to the manufacturing partnership with Amphastar (First, it must be noted that the Pfizer plant acquisition everyone is pointing to NEVER happened as Sanofi exercise its right of first refusal as co-developers of Exubera and uses that as the main source of insulin development for their Lantus pen-injection system, which cleared $2.4 billion in sales US, $6.6 billion total in 2013). Amphastar originally started its S-1 application in February 2005, but after numerous amendments and delays requested a withdraw of the S-1 in November of 2010... April 1st, 2014: MannKind receives favorably vote in Advisory Committee, PDUFA date set for July 15th. April 30th, 2014: Amphastar purchased Merck's API manufacturing facility in France and established their French subsidiary company. May 20th, 2014: Amphastar files S-1 application for common stock offering. June 24th, 2014: Effective date for Amphastar stock. June 27th, 2014: Afrezza receives FDA approval. July 31st, 2014: MannKind and Amphastar Pharmaceuticals France enter into 120 million Euro agreement for Insulin production for 2015-2019. August 4th, 2014: Amphastar's Quiet Period post-IPO ends August 5th, 2014: Formal Press Release declaring MannKind and Amphastar's agreement. The time table would suggest that Amphastar was selected as the definitive supplier of recombinant human insulin prior to the Advisory Committee, and also that they would be going public... The 6-8 week post approval deadline was dictated on Amphastar's ability to file their S-1 ASAP, have an expedited review and approval process (average of 40 days), and then sit on the 40-day Quiet Period. July 30th was the soonest they could have a written agreement give the mandatory time frame for publicly announcing such an agreement (4 business days). Quiet Period for Amphastar's IPO ended 8/4, Announcement of Partnership 8/5. I would use this expeditious and carefully orchestrated movement to suggest that Monday's CC will have an industry shattering declaration. There's a work of an entreprenuerial maestro going on. Sit back and enjoy. My predictions are that because the agreement was with the subsidiary (based in France) and not the main office located State-side, that there is already a partner (Eli Lilly) lined up domestically to provide future manufacturing (after current insulin stocks are depleted), sales and marketing endeavors and that Amphastar will be the main provider for insulin for global distribution, with Merck running as the marketing and sales partner... as they are already getting a cut of the manufacturing deal because the Amphastar's French plant is working under Merck patent licensing agreements. This is the biggest smack in the face to Sanofi who swiped the German manufacturing plant from MannKind back in 2009, who has the leading diabetes brand in Lantus (Merck wants to recapture insulin treatment glory), and who is currently suing Lilly over their Lantus bio-similar solution. A common enemy brings together the strongest alliances.  |
|
|
|
Post by notatool on Aug 7, 2014 6:12:10 GMT -5
Interesting. Thanks.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 7, 2014 7:18:55 GMT -5
paulie, Nice post! I'm not usually the "spell-check" police, but did want to point out it's "Afrezza", not "Afrezza". Let's hope that "Afrezza" is not a Freudian slip. |
|
|
|
Post by paulie on Aug 7, 2014 7:44:19 GMT -5
paulie, Nice post! I'm not usually the "spell-check" police, but did want to point out it's "Afrezza", not "Afrezza". Let's hope that "Afrezza" is not a Freudian slip. It was 3 in the morning when I wrote that... but I might have done the same thing at 3 in the afternoon.. so who knows?? BTW, if only some of these predictions come true.. I will be very happy. The shorts will be in denial, but you simply can't hold down a stock like this forever, can you? I would think that there is limited upside in going short after the cards are placed on the table. How am I wrong? |
|
|
|
Post by mnholdem on Aug 7, 2014 7:56:36 GMT -5
Folks have to play the long game. It is quite possible that the stock goes up only modestly on even great news. Do you sell and put your money in another Biotech? Why? Is there a better team out there in the field? Perhaps we wait for the 1st Quarter earnings or even 2nd quarter. Is a 5X return worth that wait? I would think that it is. One other thing. Look for the partner that will do the best job to sell Afrezza and not the one who flashed the most cash. No matter what happens on Monday, don't be tempted to just dump the stock and go play ball somewhere else until next May. August 11th isn't the last word on this stock.. in fact, it is just the beginning. I agree with a long term view also, and there are approvals by other countries for Afrezza to look forward to and which will affect the stock. An important part of any company's earnings report is forecasted revenue & EPS.
August 11th is not a new beginning, but it is a new chapter.
However, I expect that after the announcement(s) spikes pps, short interests will once again be placing their bets and force another pullback during the doldrums between events.
I'm 100% behind Al Mann, but I don't see sitting around to watch another round of bashing, bashing, bashing prior to earnings reports related to Afrezza as necessarily the wisest strategy to meet my retirement goal, which is simply to provide comfort & security for my wife, who has been there to support me for 40 years.
I have another stock that I'm expecting a 250% pop on binary event, that I want to load up on like I did with MNKD. So I may exit, let the shorts have at it and play their game, and then re-enter at a later date. I, like many of you, can easily visualize a prosperous future for Technosphere-delivered drug applications - especially with a tactician like Dr. Mann steering the bus.
|
|
|
|
Post by paulie on Aug 7, 2014 8:48:52 GMT -5
Folks have to play the long game. It is quite possible that the stock goes up only modestly on even great news. Do you sell and put your money in another Biotech? Why? Is there a better team out there in the field? Perhaps we wait for the 1st Quarter earnings or even 2nd quarter. Is a 5X return worth that wait? I would think that it is. One other thing. Look for the partner that will do the best job to sell Afrezza and not the one who flashed the most cash. No matter what happens on Monday, don't be tempted to just dump the stock and go play ball somewhere else until next May. August 11th isn't the last word on this stock.. in fact, it is just the beginning. I agree with a long term view also, and there are approvals by other countries for Afrezza to look forward to and which will affect the stock. An important part of any company's earnings report is forecasted revenue & EPS.
August 11th is not a new beginning, but it is a new chapter.
However, I expect that after the announcement(s) spikes pps, short interests will once again be placing their bets and force another pullback during the doldrums between events.
I'm 100% behind Al Mann, but I don't see sitting around to watch another round of bashing, bashing, bashing prior to earnings reports related to Afrezza as necessarily the wisest strategy to meet my retirement goal, which is simply to provide comfort & security for my wife, who has been there to support me for 40 years.
I have another stock that I'm expecting a 250% pop on binary event, that I want to load up on like I did with MNKD. So I may exit, let the shorts have at it and play their game, and then re-enter at a later date. I, like many of you, can easily visualize a prosperous future for Technosphere-delivered drug applications - especially with a tactician like Dr. Mann steering the bus.
------
So you may be advocating taking some money off the table after 8/11? What percentage would you suggest? |
|
|
|
Post by savzak on Aug 7, 2014 8:53:01 GMT -5
Ok holdem, I'll bite...what is the stock you're looking at? Folks have to play the long game. It is quite possible that the stock goes up only modestly on even great news. Do you sell and put your money in another Biotech? Why? Is there a better team out there in the field? Perhaps we wait for the 1st Quarter earnings or even 2nd quarter. Is a 5X return worth that wait? I would think that it is. One other thing. Look for the partner that will do the best job to sell Afrezza and not the one who flashed the most cash. No matter what happens on Monday, don't be tempted to just dump the stock and go play ball somewhere else until next May. August 11th isn't the last word on this stock.. in fact, it is just the beginning. I agree with a long term view also, and there are approvals by other countries for Afrezza to look forward to and which will affect the stock. An important part of any company's earnings report is forecasted revenue & EPS.
August 11th is not a new beginning, but it is a new chapter.
However, I expect that after the announcement(s) spikes pps, short interests will once again be placing their bets and force another pullback during the doldrums between events.
I'm 100% behind Al Mann, but I don't see sitting around to watch another round of bashing, bashing, bashing prior to earnings reports related to Afrezza as necessarily the wisest strategy to meet my retirement goal, which is simply to provide comfort & security for my wife, who has been there to support me for 40 years.
I have another stock that I'm expecting a 250% pop on binary event, that I want to load up on like I did with MNKD. So I may exit, let the shorts have at it and play their game, and then re-enter at a later date. I, like many of you, can easily visualize a prosperous future for Technosphere-delivered drug applications - especially with a tactician like Dr. Mann steering the bus.
|
|
|
|
Post by notatool on Aug 7, 2014 9:26:33 GMT -5
I would also like to know please!
 |
|
|
|
Post by mdcenter61 on Aug 7, 2014 9:40:27 GMT -5
Marketpanda - now that was a hell of a post!!!
|
|
|
|
Post by mnholdem on Aug 7, 2014 10:26:02 GMT -5
paulie: I'm not an advisor. Typically, I lock in 50% of gains after a spike caused by a pivotal/binary event, which is a time-tested practice. However, I have my own investment strategies and they may not align with your goals. If my own personal investment strategy pays off, in the end I will own more MNKD shares than I own today.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
savzak: The world's largest undeveloped copper/nickel/PGM ore deposit just happens to reside in my home state of Minnesota. New technology makes hard-rock mining economically feasible and Polymet Mining Corp [NASDAQ:PLM] is the first player to the plate. Shareholders expect approval of the Final Environmental Impact Statement within a few months. It's been a 10-year environmental process, so MNKD isn't the only stock I own that has taught me to be patient and do my own DD. The advent of copper/nickel/platinum/palladium mining has pitted northern 4th generation miners against largely metro environmentalists. The mining project involves the USFS, USACE and the EPA, an agency that causes more delays than the FDA does.
Like Mannkind, PLM also experienced a pullback from $1.54/share to $1.16/share since the last milestone event in March (a better-than-expected EPA rating of the SuppDraft EIS). 50,000 public comments for/against the Northmet mine project have to be responded to, by law. This has caused a 6-? month delay. Once the FEIS (final) & the AD/ROD (government approval acronyms) get published, Polymet pps will skyrocket, since the event moves the company into the mine permitting phase and planned 18-months construction leading to production start up.
Roth Investments just initiated coverage yesterday with a $2.25 target, which fits within my YMB posts predicting $2.00-$2.50/share for PLM after the FEIS announcement. The PLM board posters who predict $10pps are overly optimistic IMHO.
Anyway, after PLM pops this fall, I expect another pullback during the construction phase, so I'll lock in my gains and re-invest in Mannkind (Target: 150%-300% return on investment in 5 years following partnership) and also Wellgreen Platinum (NASDAQ: WGPLF), a huge platinum mine startup in the Yukon (Target: 300%-800% return on investment within 5 years).
Disclaimer: past performance of mnholdem investments does not guarantee future success (chuckle).
|
|
