Sales Launch Benchmarks

[ezrasfund]

This NY Times article is about the launch of the Hepatitis C drug Sovaldi, but the graphs have some good information about first year sales and market penetration for blockbuster drugs.  Scroll down to see info about number of patients treated, annual cost per patient and first year revenues.  We are setting our sights pretty high.  Januvia, Celebrex and Prilosec all had first year revenues of about $600 million, and none treated more than 500,000 patients in the first year.


www.nytimes.com/2014/08/07/upshot/why-the-price-of-sovaldi-is-a-shock-to-the-system.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&version=HpSum&module=second-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news

[seanismorris]

I'm that's true for some people, but my expectation is $500M for the first year and grow to 3B within three years.  

With that (modest) expection we'd see a 10x market cap (from where we are today).

Add in a promising pipeline (yet to be determined, but expected) and investors can expect a very nice return.