2019 Revenue & Beyond
Mar 19, 2019 11:59:12 GMT -5
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otherottawaguy, babaoriley, and 29 more like this
Post by mannmade on Mar 19, 2019 11:59:12 GMT -5
Was thinking about where mnkd stands with revenue if scripts do not increase as much as anticipated by some. Personally I think Afrezza scripts will slowly grind up with no hockey stick until peds approval sometime in 2021. (I hope I am wrong). I think advertising is necessary for continued awareness, branding and to allow people from med, Ins and investment community as well as pwd to know Afrezza is here to stay.
Having said the above the future looks extremely bright to me for the following other reasons:
1. 2019 Uthr milestone $25m
2. 2019 2nd Uthr molecule while no guarantee seems fairly likely at
$30m
3. 2019 net afrezza $ moving forward to eoy $25m
4. 2019 $1.60 warrants exercised for $40m
The above equals $120m in net $ to mnkd in 2019 less 11.5m to DF as final debt payment and I believe another 7m or so to amph which leaves $101.5 m plus estimated 40m currently coh for $141.5 m
Then we have in 2020 another 25m in Uthr milestones and an estimated $35m (being conservative) in revenue w no real debt (other than amph payment) for an additional $60m.
That’s a minimum of $201m in cash that can be almost 100% guaranteed by end of 2020 which is only 21months away. At which time Trep T should be on the market, afrezza peds should be submitted to fda, afrezza should be selling in Brazil, India, Canada, Mexico, uk (thank you Sam and brenden) and possibly the eu and China. Mnkd should also be well down the road with rls and 3 or 4 other molecules with other bp’s. Not to mention that Ins should be better and the SoC upgraded a few more times in favor of afrezza, cgm penetration should grow! The future looks extremely bright and this must be what WS is finally recognizing, thank you Nat and mk.
and sports, peppy and liane! GLTAL’s
Having said the above the future looks extremely bright to me for the following other reasons:
1. 2019 Uthr milestone $25m
2. 2019 2nd Uthr molecule while no guarantee seems fairly likely at
$30m
3. 2019 net afrezza $ moving forward to eoy $25m
4. 2019 $1.60 warrants exercised for $40m
The above equals $120m in net $ to mnkd in 2019 less 11.5m to DF as final debt payment and I believe another 7m or so to amph which leaves $101.5 m plus estimated 40m currently coh for $141.5 m
Then we have in 2020 another 25m in Uthr milestones and an estimated $35m (being conservative) in revenue w no real debt (other than amph payment) for an additional $60m.
That’s a minimum of $201m in cash that can be almost 100% guaranteed by end of 2020 which is only 21months away. At which time Trep T should be on the market, afrezza peds should be submitted to fda, afrezza should be selling in Brazil, India, Canada, Mexico, uk (thank you Sam and brenden) and possibly the eu and China. Mnkd should also be well down the road with rls and 3 or 4 other molecules with other bp’s. Not to mention that Ins should be better and the SoC upgraded a few more times in favor of afrezza, cgm penetration should grow! The future looks extremely bright and this must be what WS is finally recognizing, thank you Nat and mk.
and sports, peppy and liane! GLTAL’s
