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Post by uvula on Jul 31, 2024 7:55:34 GMT -5
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Post by dh4mizzou on Jul 31, 2024 8:40:34 GMT -5
Someone doesn't seem to like what's being said.
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Post by prcgorman2 on Jul 31, 2024 9:12:59 GMT -5
Someone doesn't seem to like what's being said. The current $17 drop in UTHR share price is a very interesting reaction to what I would have thought was a very good financial report based on Michael Benkowitz, President and COO reporting their, "...fifth straight quarter of record revenue...". Did they have unusual expenses and report a poor EPS?
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Post by Clement on Jul 31, 2024 9:26:38 GMT -5
^ revenue beat. earnings miss. unusual expenses: selling (expanded sales force), legal expenses (example LQDA), and share based compensation (ugh)
But I thought it was a good EC and a good quarter. UTHR 's plan with "3 waves of success" illustrates how sound this company is now and in the future.
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Post by prcgorman2 on Jul 31, 2024 9:41:54 GMT -5
You remind me that ktim used a phrase I liked with respect to MannKind related to the departure of Stephen Binder, and that phrase is "spending discipline" (or words to that effect). MannKind has been consistently conservative with cash, and I hope they continue to operate that way. I think it goes very well with the other aspect of their financial posturing which is getting to be debt-free. That is a very uncommon state for most companies and I am very interested in seeing what that state of affairs can do for the MNKD share price. I expect it to be quite helpful, but don't really know if that is a good assumption.
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Post by agedhippie on Jul 31, 2024 16:23:42 GMT -5
Someone doesn't seem to like what's being said. The current $17 drop in UTHR share price is a very interesting reaction to what I would have thought was a very good financial report based on Michael Benkowitz, President and COO reporting their, "...fifth straight quarter of record revenue...". Did they have unusual expenses and report a poor EPS? The revenue was way over estimate, $7145M vs. $692M estimated. However the EPS was $5.85 vs. $6.50 estimated. Most of that gap was down to increased R&D spend, $140M vs. $114M. Combined with a miss on estimated Tyvaso sales, $398M vs. $400M with nebulized Tyvaso sales missing $139M vs. $151M estimate (t-DPI beat at $258M vs. $257M estimate) this was why the share price dropped like it did. For MNKD the result with T-DPI was good, but it looks like that was at the expense of nebulized Tyvaso so UTHR got penalized because Tyvaso sales are seen as a big deal for UTHR as they are over half the revenue.
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Post by wyattdog on Aug 1, 2024 9:30:33 GMT -5
U.S. RESEARCH ROUNDUP- 08:57:41 AM ET, 08/01/2024 - Reuters United Therapeutics Corp : Leerink Partners raises PT to $350 from $344 * United Therapeutics Corp : Morgan Stanley raises PT to $337 from $321 BofA Global Research cuts PT to $280 from $303
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Post by porkini on Aug 1, 2024 10:15:37 GMT -5
U.S. RESEARCH ROUNDUP- 08:57:41 AM ET, 08/01/2024 - Reuters United Therapeutics Corp : Leerink Partners raises PT to $350 from $344 * United Therapeutics Corp : Morgan Stanley raises PT to $337 from $321 BofA Global Research cuts PT to $280 from $303 Scratches head looking at "BofA Global Research cuts PT to $280 from $303" What is BofA looking at that the others are not, or, what are they missing? Pretty big ($57-70) difference between the PT's.
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Post by Clement on Aug 1, 2024 11:40:40 GMT -5
UTHR Rev run rate annualizes to 2.84B. MC = $14.44B at sp 324.57. ==> Price / sales = 5.1 based on current run rate. This company is making money now with a promising pipeline for the future (intermediate and long-term) .
UTHR is definitely not overpriced at 324.
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Post by agedhippie on Aug 1, 2024 20:17:07 GMT -5
U.S. RESEARCH ROUNDUP- 08:57:41 AM ET, 08/01/2024 - Reuters United Therapeutics Corp : Leerink Partners raises PT to $350 from $344 * United Therapeutics Corp : Morgan Stanley raises PT to $337 from $321 BofA Global Research cuts PT to $280 from $303 Scratches head looking at "BofA Global Research cuts PT to $280 from $303" What is BofA looking at that the others are not, or, what are they missing? Pretty big ($57-70) difference between the PT's. I am guessing here, but.... given the Tyvaso revenue estimate miss I suspect that they think with PAH competitors coming on line, sotatercept in particular, that Tyvaso sales get impacted and it is by far UTHR's best seller. Personally I think it depends how fast the uptake is in the PH-ILD market since that is where BoA sees most of the opportunity for LQDA and UTHR. Label this as speculation - I don't know the reason for the BoA downgrade and that ^ is partly based of a JPMC article on UTHR earning.
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Post by prcgorman2 on Aug 2, 2024 7:11:27 GMT -5
Refresh my memory. Is PH-ILD the market that is “10x” the size of the current PAH market? If so, can it not sustain multiple competitors whose stock prices benefit from the revenue?
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Post by agedhippie on Aug 2, 2024 8:00:29 GMT -5
Refresh my memory. Is PH-ILD the market that is “10x” the size of the current PAH market? If so, can it not sustain multiple competitors whose stock prices benefit from the revenue? I don't know about the size, but BoA reckons that it's big enough for UTHR and LQDA not to be able to fill it between them. The PAH market on the other hand is rather crowded, and sotatercept is threatening that market.
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Post by Clement on Aug 2, 2024 9:07:49 GMT -5
^ And UTHR said that sotatercept was used in trials on top of prostacyclin therapy, so UTHR doesn't expect sotatercept to compete directly with its drugs in PAH.
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Post by casualinvestor on Aug 2, 2024 14:30:39 GMT -5
After doing a little research, I can tell that what I've learned about PAH/PH-xxx from this board is a mishmash, especially as it applies to the WHO Groups 1-5. I still don't think I have it right. Some resources: phassociation.org/types-pulmonary-hypertension-groups/www.unither.com/research-and-medicine/therapeutic-areaswww.nhlbi.nih.gov/health/pulmonary-hypertensionGroup 1: Pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) Group 2: Pulmonary hypertension due to left-sided heart disease ---- This is by far the largest category, but not addressed by TyvasoGroup 3: Pulmonary hypertension due to lung disease and/or hypoxia Group 4: Pulmonary hypertension due to pulmonary artery obstructions, including chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension (CTEPH) Group 5: Pulmonary hypertension with unknown and/or multiple causes Group 1 and Group 3 are the ones Tyvaso and T-DPI will apply to. Together they comprise about 12% of the total. Note that group 3 includes a lot of diseases that cause PH as a symptom, and only some of these are treatable by Tyvaso Peppy posted this image a couple years ago: If I remember correctly PH-COPD was a very large group, but would require another study.
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Post by Clement on Aug 3, 2024 5:39:36 GMT -5
re: UHTR's PH-COPD study " The PERFECT study (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT03496623) evaluated the safety and efficacy of inhaled treprostinil (iTRE) in this patient population." "The study was terminated early at the recommendation of the data and safety monitoring committee based on the totality of evidence that iTRE increased the risk of serious adverse events and suggestive evidence of an increased risk of mortality. The change in 6MWD was numerically worse with iTRE exposure than with placebo exposure." pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38811045/This indication is a no-go for Tyvaso. IMHO
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