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Post by centralcoastinvestor on Apr 22, 2019 15:42:21 GMT -5
Warning: This is a long post. Sorry about that.
As I have mentioned in posts from the past, I purchased my first shares in MannKind in 2007. Now to some, I am a sucker that is too stupid to know when to quit. (I do feel that way sometimes.) To others, I am a person who sees the long term benefit of Afrezza and I am just a dedicated MannKind shareholder. (Too stubborn to quit.). What I know for sure, is the success of MannKind and Afrezza has taken far longer than I ever would have imagined. Let’s just say that I was very very naive in my expectations of how quickly Afrezza would penetrate the meal time insulin market.
Lessons Learned Now as I look back on owning MannKind for so long, it has occurred to me that I knew nothing of what it would take to cause a paradigm shift in diabetes treatment. I naively thought that doctors, insurance companies and diabetics would beat the doors down to get the new breakthrough inhaled insulin. Sam Finta was the only one who understood what MannKind was up against. I couldn’t understand when Afrezza was first approved, why Sam Finta immediately began trying to spread the news via social media. I mean how hard could it be to sell the best meal time insulin of all time. Right. The truth was that even if Sanofi had not stabbed us in the back, this paradigm shift was destined to be a multi year if not a decade long effort. Had I known that then, I would have invested later in the process.
What Has Changed - The social media presence has moved well beyond the early days of Sam Finta being the lone voice on the web cheering for Afrezza. There are many personalities that are promoting Afrezza without compensation from MannKind. The videos from Jake and Laura come to mind. - The UTHR partnership legitimized the Technosphere Platform. The Bluehale technology may be validated through them as well. - MannKind has tried several different approaches to marketing Afrezza. Some have been trash canned. That is the beauty of being small, we can adapt quickly until we find something that works. - Unlike many, I do believe we have a great management team. They are just attempting the impossible by going toe to toe with Big Pharma.
Here Is What I Believe Now - We are in a dog fight for the survival of the company. There are many that do not want the company to survive. - MannKind has moved beyond bankruptcy concerns for the foreseeable future. - Dilution is still a possibility to ensure the continued push to establish Afrezza as the meal time insulin gold standard.
Surviving Means Disruption The longer MannKind sticks around, the more established Afrezza becomes. It will just take time. Let’s add TreT to the mix in the next couple years in terms of income flow. And then other Technosphere products over time. The longer MannKind survives, it becomes a threat in many different treatment arenas. Remarks from the past like “an embarrassment of riches” will become truth. It will just take longer than most are willing to wait.
Conclusion I believe that Mike Castagna is the right man for the job. Make no mistake, this is a knock down, bare fisted street fight that will be won by shear force of will, raw grit and good ole stubbornness. Mike will not be deterred by the daily fluctuation of the share price, manipulation by the evil shorts or the trolls that inhabit social media. WE ARE EVENTUALLY GOING TO WIN. PERIOD.
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Post by sportsrancho on Apr 22, 2019 15:47:20 GMT -5
2007 also:-) Get a partner we need many more reps! Turn the commercials back on they are working!
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Post by longliner on Apr 22, 2019 16:07:37 GMT -5
Your posts prompted me to dig through my files and see where I entered this fray. I was unable to find the beginning purchase, but I believe it was about a year after you long timers. I was however reminded that at one time I had a portfolio of more than one stock! And a balance!!
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Post by cretin11 on Apr 22, 2019 16:16:20 GMT -5
2007 also:-) Get a partner we need many more reps! Turn the commercials back on they are working! Great post CCI, like a good locker room halftime speech. Sports i'm curious about the basis for your statement that the commercials are working. Are you basing that on script growth (but my impression is that MC led us to expect more growth than we got) or anecdotal "word on the street" info?
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Post by prcgorman2 on Apr 22, 2019 16:19:49 GMT -5
2007 also:-) Get a partner we need many more reps! Turn the commercials back on they are working! Do we need more reps? I'd be happy if we could have more of them but not if they're from a "partner".
Partner = dilution...of revenue.
It may be possible to have a partnership deal that wasn't totally objectionable, but I don't know what that would look like. I'm unable to imagine it. That's my limitation, not anyone else's. I'm curious to hear/read what others might imagine. I was thinking recently of the Faberge 80s shampoo (with pure wheat germ and honey!) commercial with Heather Locklear where she says she "told two friends about it, and they each told two friends, and so on, and so on" indicating an exponential increase in interest in the product. And, I wondered, do insulin-taking diabetics have insulin-taking friends with whom they talk about their experiences with their insulin(s)? Insulin administration is a lot more complicated than shampoo. I am curious to know how influential testimony is as a form of advertising for Afrezza. Personal testimony is almost certainly the most convincing. Why else hold dinners with doctors describing their experiences? But, how frequently do insulin-taking diabetics talk with each other about their personal medication experiences?
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Post by goyocafe on Apr 22, 2019 16:25:09 GMT -5
2007 also:-) Get a partner we need many more reps! Turn the commercials back on they are working! Do we need more reps? I'd be happy if we could have more of them but not if they're from a "partner".
Partner = dilution...of revenue.
It may be possible to have a partnership deal that wasn't totally objectionable, but I don't know what that would look like. I'm unable to imagine it. That's my limitation, not anyone else's. I'm curious to hear/read what others might imagine. I was thinking recently of the Faberge 80s shampoo (with pure wheat germ and honey!) commercial with Heather Locklear where she says she "told two friends about it, and they each told two friends, and so on, and so on" indicating an exponential increase in interest in the product. And, I wondered, do insulin-taking diabetics have insulin-taking friends with whom they talk about their experiences with their insulin(s)? Insulin administration is a lot more complicated than shampoo. I am curious to know how influential testimony is as a form of advertising for Afrezza. Personal testimony is almost certainly the most convincing. Why else hold dinners with doctors describing their experiences? But, how frequently do insulin-taking diabetics talk with each other about their personal medication experiences? I see adoption of Afrezza more like a pinball machine. You launch the ball with a flipper, but it hits so many bumpers and other obstacles along its path that only a few shots hit the desired target.
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Post by lojothehus on Apr 22, 2019 16:45:23 GMT -5
2007 also:-) Get a partner we need many more reps! Turn the commercials back on they are working! In my opinion when you are a small unique fish in a big pond, you have to make all the other fish in the pond realize why you are unique in comparison to themselves. Saying that, MNKD needs to "make some noise!" What separates them from the rest? No needles and Lower A1C's! Would anyone have ever imagined that you can carry your insulin around on a cool keychain, in many different colors? Wear it around your neck as a cool necklace? An athlete can tuck it in her/his sweats and carry it out on the field. It can be packed into a lunch bag or a backpack?
It's time to show the historic Insulin companies what makes MNKD's Afrezza different? It's time to make them think, 'if we can't beat 'em, we got to join 'em.' We will never win fighting these historic giants in a traditional way.
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Post by longliner on Apr 22, 2019 16:50:27 GMT -5
2007 also:-) Get a partner we need many more reps! Turn the commercials back on they are working! In my opinion when you are a small unique fish in a big pond, you have to make all the other fish in the pond realize why you are unique in comparison to themselves. Saying that, MNKD needs to "make some noise!" What separates them from the rest? No needles and Lower A1C's! Would anyone have ever imagined that you can carry your insulin around on a cool keychain, in many different colors? Wear it around your neck as a cool necklace? An athlete can tuck it in her/his sweats and carry it out on the field. It can be packed into a lunch bag or a backpack?
It's time to show the historic Insulin companies what makes MNKD's Afrezza different? It's time to make them think, 'if we can't beat 'em, we got to join 'em.' We will never win fighting these historic giants in a traditional way.
Along those lines, I was surprised to receive a "Diabetes Made Simple" postcard in the mail today from One Drop, 50% off for 3 months. I presume sent to all residents as that was who it was addressed to (resident). Unfortunately there was no mention of Afrezza.
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Post by sportsrancho on Apr 22, 2019 18:57:22 GMT -5
2007 also:-) Get a partner we need many more reps! Turn the commercials back on they are working! Do we need more reps? I'd be happy if we could have more of them but not if they're from a "partner".
Partner = dilution...of revenue.
It may be possible to have a partnership deal that wasn't totally objectionable, but I don't know what that would look like. I'm unable to imagine it. That's my limitation, not anyone else's. I'm curious to hear/read what others might imagine. I was thinking recently of the Faberge 80s shampoo (with pure wheat germ and honey!) commercial with Heather Locklear where she says she "told two friends about it, and they each told two friends, and so on, and so on" indicating an exponential increase in interest in the product. And, I wondered, do insulin-taking diabetics have insulin-taking friends with whom they talk about their experiences with their insulin(s)? Insulin administration is a lot more complicated than shampoo. I am curious to know how influential testimony is as a form of advertising for Afrezza. Personal testimony is almost certainly the most convincing. Why else hold dinners with doctors describing their experiences? But, how frequently do insulin-taking diabetics talk with each other about their personal medication experiences? OK well Lauren just told me, and I posted it in the scripts thread, that every diabetic she talks to, and of course you know who she is, has not heard of it! she thinks we need more reps, more doctor education by those reps. And more commercials. Co-partnering with Dexcom or SENS would double our exposure and show Afrezza in real time. Not to mention putting more money in the reps pockets. Better educating the doctors.
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Post by falconquest on Apr 22, 2019 20:08:54 GMT -5
Do we need more reps? I'd be happy if we could have more of them but not if they're from a "partner".
Partner = dilution...of revenue.
It may be possible to have a partnership deal that wasn't totally objectionable, but I don't know what that would look like. I'm unable to imagine it. That's my limitation, not anyone else's. I'm curious to hear/read what others might imagine. I was thinking recently of the Faberge 80s shampoo (with pure wheat germ and honey!) commercial with Heather Locklear where she says she "told two friends about it, and they each told two friends, and so on, and so on" indicating an exponential increase in interest in the product. And, I wondered, do insulin-taking diabetics have insulin-taking friends with whom they talk about their experiences with their insulin(s)? Insulin administration is a lot more complicated than shampoo. I am curious to know how influential testimony is as a form of advertising for Afrezza. Personal testimony is almost certainly the most convincing. Why else hold dinners with doctors describing their experiences? But, how frequently do insulin-taking diabetics talk with each other about their personal medication experiences? OK well Lauren just told me, and I posted it in the scripts thread, that every diabetic she talks to, and of course you know who she is, has not heard of it! she thinks we need more reps, more doctor education by those reps. And more commercials. Co-partnering with Dexcom or SENS would double our exposure and show Afrezza in real time. Not to mention putting more money in the reps pockets. Better educating the doctors. Dovetailing on that, let us recall that Al's original intention was to make Mannkind a drug development company and not a stand alone BP. I would prefer to see Afrezza marketing handled by someone with deep pockets and let the royalties and manufacturing fees of Afrezza roll in. Mannkind could then focus on the development of further drugs therapies and expand the use of Technosphere. To me the future is in the development of Technosphere products as a whole, not just Afrezza. But hey, that's only my shoot from the hip opinion.
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Post by brotherm1 on Apr 22, 2019 20:47:36 GMT -5
I’ll take 2 billion for it and 15% royalties
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Post by buyitonsale on Apr 22, 2019 21:32:05 GMT -5
CCI, please, stick around until Thanksgiving 2021...
Hang in there 😊
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Post by lifebreath on Apr 22, 2019 22:23:13 GMT -5
Do we need more reps? I'd be happy if we could have more of them but not if they're from a "partner".
Partner = dilution...of revenue.
It may be possible to have a partnership deal that wasn't totally objectionable, but I don't know what that would look like. I'm unable to imagine it. That's my limitation, not anyone else's. I'm curious to hear/read what others might imagine. I was thinking recently of the Faberge 80s shampoo (with pure wheat germ and honey!) commercial with Heather Locklear where she says she "told two friends about it, and they each told two friends, and so on, and so on" indicating an exponential increase in interest in the product. And, I wondered, do insulin-taking diabetics have insulin-taking friends with whom they talk about their experiences with their insulin(s)? Insulin administration is a lot more complicated than shampoo. I am curious to know how influential testimony is as a form of advertising for Afrezza. Personal testimony is almost certainly the most convincing. Why else hold dinners with doctors describing their experiences? But, how frequently do insulin-taking diabetics talk with each other about their personal medication experiences? OK well Lauren just told me, and I posted it in the scripts thread, that every diabetic she talks to, and of course you know who she is, has not heard of it! she thinks we need more reps, more doctor education by those reps. And more commercials. Co-partnering with Dexcom or SENS would double our exposure and show Afrezza in real time. Not to mention putting more money in the reps pockets. Better educating the doctors. I would not like to see a partnership with another pharma but a partnership with dexcom could prove to be very synergistic
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Post by barnstormer on Apr 22, 2019 23:01:10 GMT -5
Partnering with Dexcom or OneDrop would be nice, but purely fantasy. Why would they want to limit their products to one insulin company, especially one with a tiny patient base? When MNKD decided to partner with Sanofi I thought seriously about selling all of my shares. I really didn't think Afrezza would be a priority there no matter who the CEO was because of the money they invested in their existing insulin lines and the profit stream associated with it. I thought again of selling after Matt announced they were going to go it alone. Like many here I am too deeply invested and underwater to sell it now so I am hoping for a buyout. Not a partner, but a buyout. Someone needs to come in with the clout, means and reputation in the industry to pick Afrezza up, brush it off and send it in thr right direction without the constant worry of running out of cash.
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Post by uvula on Apr 23, 2019 3:16:22 GMT -5
The only statement we can make with any certainty is "the longer mannkind survives, the longer mannkind survives."
Afrezza needs something better than a noninferior label and mnkd will never be able to afford that clinical study by themselves.
I would rather have mnkd sell off afrezza for $1B than continue to limp along.
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