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Post by ktim on May 11, 2019 13:55:10 GMT -5
Not sure where to start. How about the company is losing money every month, can't afford to pay for the phase 3 trials you mentioned, has debt owed to other parties, will have trouble raising money, hasn't figured out how to make the sales reps effective at contacting doctors, has a commercial that seems to be a flop, etc. Your "logic" is equivalent to saying "I'm a millionaire because I have a million dollar house" without mentioning that you also have a million dollar mortgage. The market cap reflects what the company is worth today. Reality sucks. Please point out the error in my logic. I would be thrilled if you could make me feel better about my investment. LOL You've just described the beginning of most business success stories. With the economy we have going on right now and the overseas deals about to be inked, there isn't a single chance of reasonably financing our turnaround? The question is if we still believe. Using your example, I believe in less than 30 years, I'm going to own a million dollar house. And, I get to live in a million dollar house the entire time(the living in the house I'm talking about here is the watching, listening and the anticipation of success). It's all a matter of perspective. You see, this close to kissing 50 years on this planet, 1)I've finally got the patience I should have had in my youth. 2) I'm playing with mad money that I can walk away from without feeling too bad. 3)In 20 years of personal investing, I've already made all the mistakes a person can make. Ive been guilty of chasing a stock, catching a falling knife, going against a trend, falling in love with a stock(of which, I fear many here are guilty) I've sold too early, I've sold too late, I've not bought when I should have, I've bought when I shouldn't etc. etc. etc. you get my point. However, I've learned from my failures as much as my successes. Perspective counts. All that said, as much as I believe in the long term prospects for Mannkind, I will sell almost every share in a heartbeat if I see it's getting frothy and ahead of itself like this last spike over $2.00. Nobody ever got hurt taking a profit. The $1.60 notes kind of, until December, put a mental ceiling on us and the technicals turned over. It happens. There are so many things to consider with this stock because the fundamentals are one thing, I'm holding some for the long haul(and they're underwater) but the way this stock trades around the technicals and one-time events, makes it my favorite trading plaything. Until the short interest falls below 10% of the float, it's going to have some swings for the patient investors. Around $1, the bad news is built into it. I've gone on long enough. Thanks for hearing me out. GLTY We have been financing the turnaround. It's been with discounted shares and sweetner of warrants that cause headwind. I would expect more of the same. There's always a chance for better financing, but also a chance overall market conditions make even that type of financing difficult to come by. But most likely, more of the same. To me it's reasonable, but will be more dilution which will be meaningful within the big picture of shareholder value. Though that type of financing isn't going to get us the kind of money necessary for the type of trials that could really set us on an entirely different trajectory, i.e. one's demonstrating economic benefit from lower complications in large patient pool or showing early intervention with Afrezza in T2 can be done with high level of safety and slowing or stopping progression. That level of money has very little chance of materializing, barring some extraordinary change. What overseas deals do you know of about to be inked? I must have missed some news. |
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Post by radgray68 on May 11, 2019 14:45:40 GMT -5
I was talking about Cipla and Biomm. I also have faith that the management will find someone to kick in with a negotiated deal and/or agreement within our current cash runway of 5 or 6 quarters. A couple years to a patient investor is not too long to wait to potentially double your money. That's what investing is all about right? Heck, even Buffet only shoots for doubling every 5 years. Say that in 5 years, Mannkind is only at 2.50. I've got a 15% return. Lather, rinse and repeat. I just wish I had the guts to make money both ways by shorting when I see an obvious short opportunity. GLTY
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Post by tayl5 on May 11, 2019 14:57:01 GMT -5
I've been a MNKD stockholder for over ten years. Other than shifting shares between accounts, I haven't sold any MannKind shares. For a few years I was an active poster, responding to most topics. That got exhausting so I became a lurker instead. For better or worse, I've read all of your posts (thanks!) and had my biases confirmed many times over. I've also lost most of my investment. That loss aside, it feels like the company (not the stock) is in better shape than it's ever been. The big worry now is the D word--dilution. For a long time, it was the B word--bankruptcy. People complain about Mike, but do you want to go back to the other guys? Maybe Al in his prime, but otherwise, hell no. I look at companies that I bailed on seven years ago that are now doing well and I think I'm an idiot. I've kept the faith with MannKind and lost my shirt, and I think I'm an idiot. But I'll be damned if I'm going to give up now and watch the company succeed without me. My takeaway is, if a company is trying to change a medical paradigm, imagine the longest time you can and add ten years. If you're not willing to wait that long, invest in tech or something. Meanwhile, I'll be here, holding my expired options and reverse-split shares, and hoping MannKind can still change the world.
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Post by ilovekauai on May 11, 2019 14:58:34 GMT -5
Yes, but the r/s really rattled me and stole over 100K shares from me. That was so brutal and still struggle in my head over that manuver.
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Post by falconquest on May 11, 2019 16:04:48 GMT -5
Sports, isn't it interesting listening to new naïve "investors" sound just like we did years ago? Yep. No where to go but UP, right? [ Three things, he is not new and I have always respected his thoughts. Boca, I will trust your assessment completely of what you hear out of the ASM. Mike C emailed somebody yesterday and told them not to worry, to have a great weekend🤷♀️ Oh, this popped into my head just as soon as I read Mike's words. Very appropriate for us in my estimation.....
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Post by falconquest on May 11, 2019 16:18:07 GMT -5
I've been a MNKD stockholder for over ten years. Other than shifting shares between accounts, I haven't sold any MannKind shares. For a few years I was an active poster, responding to most topics. That got exhausting so I became a lurker instead. For better or worse, I've read all of your posts (thanks!) and had my biases confirmed many times over. I've also lost most of my investment. That loss aside, it feels like the company (not the stock) is in better shape than it's ever been. The big worry now is the D word--dilution. For a long time, it was the B word--bankruptcy. People complain about Mike, but do you want to go back to the other guys? Maybe Al in his prime, but otherwise, hell no. I look at companies that I bailed on seven years ago that are now doing well and I think I'm an idiot. I've kept the faith with MannKind and lost my shirt, and I think I'm an idiot. But I'll be damned if I'm going to give up now and watch the company succeed without me. My takeaway is, if a company is trying to change a medical paradigm, imagine the longest time you can and add ten years. If you're not willing to wait that long, invest in tech or something. Meanwhile, I'll be here, holding my expired options and reverse-split shares, and hoping MannKind can still change the world. I'll bite. So let's be reasonable and say it takes Mannkind 5 years to really get Afrezza off the ground. Now, we add your 10 years and that brings us to fifteen years down the road. How much dilution will it take to get Mannkind that far? You're free to take off your shoes and use your toes to count if necessary. |
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Post by sportsrancho on May 11, 2019 16:30:36 GMT -5
Shareholders need to understand that dilution for years ( until Afrezza is profitable in their minds ) is not going to work because it will drive the stock to the point where it circles the drain and there won’t be any more financing available. You’ve seen what being at a disadvantage gets us, it gets us toxic financing, warrants that put a lid on the share price ..driving the stock lower and lower. Every time you do it the terms get worse.
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Post by agedhippie on May 11, 2019 16:50:15 GMT -5
... The big worry now is the D word--dilution. For a long time, it was the B word--bankruptcy. People complain about Mike, but do you want to go back to the other guys? Maybe Al in his prime, but otherwise, hell no. ... Bankruptcy was never a risk as long as the stock could be diluted regardless of what was said. As long as there are buyers, and there always will be if the price is right, companies can dilute although the shareholders get hammered. This is why aside from a straddle play around the STAT report (which paid off, but more due to luck than judgement) I got out before the reverse split and have yet to get back in - I am waiting for the end of the dilution. Mike has no real idea what he is doing, he is learning on the shareholders' dime. Matt was little better, but not suited to the environment the company found itself in (kudos for getting the Sanofi money though - I didn't think that was possible). Hakan was CEO on the 'friends of Al' principal, as are most of the board and long time C-level. I always felt that group were recruit not to get in Al's way of his running the company. |
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Post by mytakeonit on May 11, 2019 17:28:13 GMT -5
So you mean we will be saying the F word after ASM?  Okay, all together now ... Finally !!! But, that's mytakeonit |
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Post by scottmnkd on May 11, 2019 17:56:18 GMT -5
The definition of insanity, is, doing the exact same thing over and over again and expecting it to change (like having my Friday morning coffee and thinking things will turnaround for Mannkind before reading the weekly Afrezza script numbers). I'm beginning to question my sanity.
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Post by u1682002 on May 11, 2019 18:11:56 GMT -5
Wow, I am surely glad waking up and found still so many “losers” still in the same train with me! The Mnkd investing experience has turned me from an investor into a “philosopher”. We all are the Forrest Gump of Mnkd land. Keep going, my friends. The definition of mnkdholic is yet defined. 😎
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Post by mytakeonit on May 11, 2019 19:53:19 GMT -5
Netflix is showing a John Lennon 2018 show called Above Us Only Sky. Starts off with Imagine. www.youtube.com/watch?v=VOgFZfRVawwThink I'll have to watch it before ASM for sure. mytakeonit is imagining later ... with wine. |
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Post by mnkdfann on May 11, 2019 20:00:01 GMT -5
You see, this close to kissing 50 years on this planet, 1)I've finally got the patience I should have had in my youth. 2) I'm playing with mad money that I can walk away from without feeling too bad. 3)In 20 years of personal investing, I've already made all the mistakes a person can make. Ive been guilty of chasing a stock, catching a falling knife, going against a trend, falling in love with a stock(of which, I fear many here are guilty) I've sold too early, I've sold too late, I've not bought when I should have, I've bought when I shouldn't etc. etc. etc. you get my point. However, I've learned from my failures as much as my successes. Perspective counts. Honestly, most people invested in MNKD have probably experience most if not all of those. I mean, with just the MNKD stock alone.  |
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Post by longliner on May 11, 2019 23:48:55 GMT -5
Yup.
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Post by mango on May 12, 2019 1:11:32 GMT -5
It's times like these that I am most grateful for my RLS.
I've also had tremendous success making money playing blackjack the past year and half compared to whatever has been happening w/ MNKD stock.
Anyways....Happy Mom's Day to all the moms out there! Ya'll are most awesome!! 💐
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Okay, all together now ... Finally !!!
