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Post by winner on May 11, 2019 5:02:15 GMT -5
Excerpt from Sport's recent post Partner up or selling it is the only answer. #EndTheGoingAloneExperiment Read more: mnkd.proboards.com/thread/11227/mnkd-believer?page=3#ixzz5nbnPCq5EI agree 100%. I.M.H.O. We need a partner with deep pockets! For what it's worth, if you were to read my previous post, I lost low six digits prior to the reverse split. I still believed. I am close to doubling down. Please no more dilution.
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Post by traderdennis on May 11, 2019 6:02:39 GMT -5
Excerpt from Sport's recent post Partner up or selling it is the only answer. #EndTheGoingAloneExperiment Read more: mnkd.proboards.com/thread/11227/mnkd-believer?page=3#ixzz5nbnPCq5EI agree 100%. I.M.H.O. We need a partner with deep pockets! For what it's worth, if you were to read my previous post, I lost low six digits prior to the reverse split. I still believed. I am close to doubling down. Please no more dilution. Dilution in some form will happen. The stock price rises there will be 10% plus when the 1.60 warrants exercised. At this point I give is only a 25 percent chance of the 1.60 warrants to exercise so it is likely a more brutal version with new warrants and a lower price. Dilution event.
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Post by radgray68 on May 11, 2019 10:19:02 GMT -5
Y E S
Bought a ton more yesterday at $1.2299 so........Y E S
Can't believe I'm getting another chance to buy this low. A company with an entire delivery platform, entering 2 phase 3 trials within a year, selling an FDA approved product showing 8 quarters of QOQ and YOY growth and already selling $50 million a year is worth more than a $250 million market cap...... PERIOD
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Post by uvula on May 11, 2019 10:35:07 GMT -5
Y E S Bought a ton more yesterday at $1.2299 so........Y E S Can't believe I'm getting another chance to buy this low. A company with an entire delivery platform, entering 2 phase 3 trials within a year, selling an FDA approved product showing 8 quarters of QOQ and YOY growth and already selling $50 million a year is worth more than a $250 million market cap...... PERIOD Sports, isn't it interesting listening to new naïve "investors" sound just like we did years ago? Yep. No where to go but UP, right?
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Post by radgray68 on May 11, 2019 11:07:51 GMT -5
Y E S Bought a ton more yesterday at $1.2299 so........Y E S Can't believe I'm getting another chance to buy this low. A company with an entire delivery platform, entering 2 phase 3 trials within a year, selling an FDA approved product showing 8 quarters of QOQ and YOY growth and already selling $50 million a year is worth more than a $250 million market cap...... PERIOD Sports, isn't it interesting listening to new naïve "investors" sound just like we did years ago? Yep. No where to go but UP, right? Not new or naive but please point out the error in my logic.
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Post by uvula on May 11, 2019 11:24:54 GMT -5
Not sure where to start. How about the company is losing money every month, can't afford to pay for the phase 3 trials you mentioned, has debt owed to other parties, will have trouble raising money, hasn't figured out how to make the sales reps effective at contacting doctors, has a commercial that seems to be a flop, etc. Your "logic" is equivalent to saying "I'm a millionaire because I have a million dollar house" without mentioning that you also have a million dollar mortgage. The market cap reflects what the company is worth today. Reality sucks.
Please point out the error in my logic. I would be thrilled if you could make me feel better about my investment.
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Post by ktim on May 11, 2019 11:31:38 GMT -5
Sports, isn't it interesting listening to new naïve "investors" sound just like we did years ago? Yep. No where to go but UP, right? Not new or naive but please point out the error in my logic. I suppose one thing you don't seem to be factoring into your logic is the level of dilution necessary to realize the potential. Currently, NRx appears stagnant and TRx is thus on linear, and slow, growth trajectory. Unless something changes that means profitability is many, many years out. The level of further dilution is simply too hard to quantify at this point. Wall street is applying a heavy discount. Another factor that you may not be taking into account the same way others do is the opportunity cost. Institutional investors can't be successful sitting on dead money, or worse yet have steep declines even if the argument can be made for eventual success. The potential may still be there for MNKD but for us long time investors look at all the gains we could have had over the past years if we'd simply been invested in the S&P rather than MNKD. Obviously the shares were overpriced significantly back then because of the length of time no one appreciated would be needed to make Afrezza successful. So summary... current fair value is affected by ultimate value of MNKD, number of shares that exist when that happens and discount (time value of money) for the length of time it takes to get there and further discount for the risk of downside volatility in interim. All of that is even assuming profitability will occur at some point. Obviously there is no way to analyse all of those factors and assign a fair value with any degree of rigor. Perhaps you are right that this is a good time to buy. However, many investors, like Sports voiced recently, have learned it sometimes can pay to miss the very bottom in a stock and wait until it appears "healthy" again. I personally won't be buying more until I see some inkling of sustained NRx growth, whether that comes before or after the share price behaving in healthy way. Good luck.
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Post by awesomo on May 11, 2019 11:40:15 GMT -5
Also, revenue to MannKind through Afrezza sales was $17.2M for 2018 (Q1 2019 was at $5.1M), not $50M. Symphony reports revenue at the retail level.
So while you can point on YoY growth so far, it started at such a low baseline that the growth isn't nearly fast enough to offset the cash burn. Not to mention, this year was supposed to be the big push to grow scripts with the dilution to pay for marketing efforts and that has completely fallen flat on their face.
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Post by sportsrancho on May 11, 2019 12:24:40 GMT -5
Y E S Bought a ton more yesterday at $1.2299 so........Y E S Can't believe I'm getting another chance to buy this low. A company with an entire delivery platform, entering 2 phase 3 trials within a year, selling an FDA approved product showing 8 quarters of QOQ and YOY growth and already selling $50 million a year is worth more than a $250 million market cap...... PERIOD Sports, isn't it interesting listening to new naïve "investors" sound just like we did years ago? Yep. No where to go but UP, right? [ Three things, he is not new and I have always respected his thoughts. Boca, I will trust your assessment completely of what you hear out of the ASM. Mike C emailed somebody yesterday and told them not to worry, to have a great weekend🤷♀️
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Post by frangipan on May 11, 2019 12:28:04 GMT -5
What stock is going to do a reverse split? Sorry I was talking about when MNKD reversed split, when Matt said we were doing it out of a position of strength, nobody does a reverse split out of a position of strength. If a stock I own is going to reverse split I jump out. I did not do it with MNKD I was too caught up in the noise, if you can tone out the noise and just look at the stock itself you make better decisions. If I had done that I would have dry powder now, and I would buy again after we get over the 200 day and it’s looking healthy. You said it all. I believe that this product COULD be a powerful agent in the treatment of diabetes. However, I have mostly let this stock go in my mind. I only check on it if there is news. Otherwise, I consider it dead money. Been here for many years, there is no way I'm selling now.
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Post by radgray68 on May 11, 2019 13:04:26 GMT -5
Not sure where to start. How about the company is losing money every month, can't afford to pay for the phase 3 trials you mentioned, has debt owed to other parties, will have trouble raising money, hasn't figured out how to make the sales reps effective at contacting doctors, has a commercial that seems to be a flop, etc. Your "logic" is equivalent to saying "I'm a millionaire because I have a million dollar house" without mentioning that you also have a million dollar mortgage. The market cap reflects what the company is worth today. Reality sucks. Please point out the error in my logic. I would be thrilled if you could make me feel better about my investment. LOL You've just described the beginning of most business success stories. With the economy we have going on right now and the overseas deals about to be inked, there isn't a single chance of reasonably financing our turnaround? The question is if we still believe. Using your example, I believe in less than 30 years, I'm going to own a million dollar house. And, I get to live in a million dollar house the entire time(the living in the house I'm talking about here is the watching, listening and the anticipation of success). It's all a matter of perspective. You see, this close to kissing 50 years on this planet, 1)I've finally got the patience I should have had in my youth. 2) I'm playing with mad money that I can walk away from without feeling too bad. 3)In 20 years of personal investing, I've already made all the mistakes a person can make. Ive been guilty of chasing a stock, catching a falling knife, going against a trend, falling in love with a stock(of which, I fear many here are guilty) I've sold too early, I've sold too late, I've not bought when I should have, I've bought when I shouldn't etc. etc. etc. you get my point. However, I've learned from my failures as much as my successes. Perspective counts. All that said, as much as I believe in the long term prospects for Mannkind, I will sell almost every share in a heartbeat if I see it's getting frothy and ahead of itself like this last spike over $2.00. Nobody ever got hurt taking a profit. The $1.60 notes kind of, until December, put a mental ceiling on us and the technicals turned over. It happens. There are so many things to consider with this stock because the fundamentals are one thing, I'm holding some for the long haul(and they're underwater) but the way this stock trades around the technicals and one-time events, makes it my favorite trading plaything. Until the short interest falls below 10% of the float, it's going to have some swings for the patient investors. Around $1, the bad news is built into it. I've gone on long enough. Thanks for hearing me out. GLTY
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Post by sportsrancho on May 11, 2019 13:07:03 GMT -5
I’m just going to talk about something that we don’t often talk about. I did some research in the last few days, talked to quite a few people and putting Insurance and all that aside there are other problems ..that cause people get on Afrezza and then get off.
It’s the coughing and the improper way they are inhailing. Evidently people think they need to inhale hard and fast. One of my MNKD long friends had gotten a friend of his to try Afrezza, well the guy quit almost immediately because he coughed all the time..then a few months later he had a stubborn high and just decided to to use Afrezza to take it down and the MNKD Long told him to inhale slowly. Well that worked and made all the difference he did not cough. So he’s thinking about getting back on it full-time.
So to clarify, just a few tips...take a drink of water first, hold the inhaler towards the back of your throat not the upper part of your mouth, exhale first.. then inhale slowly! And before you do any of that take the cartridge and tap it on a counter, especially if you’ve had it refrigerated, tap the cartridge a few times before you put it in the Dreamboat. It’s actually better if it isn’t refrigerated, it’s kind of like having Parmesan cheese in the refrigerator as it gets a little lumpy.
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Post by mango on May 11, 2019 13:22:59 GMT -5
Sports, isn't it interesting listening to new naïve "investors" sound just like we did years ago? Yep. No where to go but UP, right? [ Three things, he is not new and I have always respected his thoughts. Boca, I will trust your assessment completely of what you hear out of the ASM. Mike C emailed somebody yesterday and told them not to worry, to have a great weekend🤷♀️ Yeah boca gal, and if you want an Afrezza tshirt & coffee mug you know what to do and where to find me 😁
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Post by letitride on May 11, 2019 13:34:58 GMT -5
Ever heard the phrase F the rest go with the best. Get It!
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Post by mytakeonit on May 11, 2019 13:40:41 GMT -5
mangoes are normally up a tree in Hawaii. Will the ASM be so GREAT ... that I will feel like I can buy Japan on this upcoming trip? WOW !!!
But, that's mytakeonit
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