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Post by prcgorman2 on Jun 2, 2019 10:12:37 GMT -5
I said...Hmmm, why all the panic all of a sudden? Has something happened I missed? The Rx sales recovery from the seasonal 1st quarter dip is about the same as last year. If things continue as they have for the last two years, we’ll see slow growth of Rx sales between now and the 4th quarter with a nice swing up to end the 4th quarter, followed by a dip and a recovery to December levels about mid-May. The trend is up. If it doesn’t change materially in the next two years, we’ll be seeing 1,000+ weekly sales in 2021. In between we’ll probably see a milestone or two payment, and perhaps something else such as Brazil, or TreT royalties. If none of that is sufficient, we’ll see additional debt and/or dilution. Yes, I’d rather own 100% of the golden goose that I beleive Afrezza is. I have no interest in another big partner who gives us the shiv in the back. I’d rather die slowly than repeat that disaster. And, I cannot shake the feeling that Afrezza goes from novelty to fad to trend to SoC all on it’s own physics and the delighted users God bless them. Lifebreath asked...Would like to know the arithmetic you are considering here? How much Mnkd will be losing per month over the next two years? How much they will be losing per month once the thousand script per month threshold is achieved? Read more: mnkd.proboards.com/thread/10382/volume?page=108#ixzz5phgwfRBCMy response is...Sure! Absolutely! Let’s put some metrics around my view of reality (which is a perception after all). You may not like what I said if you thought it looked too dire or too slow motion towards the goal of a vibrant company with a properly valued (or even over-valued would be ok) stock price. That’s fine. My opinion is there is no need for panic. Grousing about pace of progress? Fine, but then I may challenge whether a person’s perception is realistic.
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Post by sportsrancho on Jun 2, 2019 10:27:56 GMT -5
Two of my favorite posters:-)
To me what it looks like, and what I just posted on StockTwits is there’s people in the partnership camp and people not in the partnership camp. Nobody wants a bad deal, or just a deal for the sake of one.
Looking back I think a little panic set in after the shareholder meeting because or maybe even before ...because it’s pretty clear Mike doesn’t have a plan, it’s also clear he’s tried many different strategies. At least that’s what I’m getting from the shareholders who contact me.
I think he’s truly baffled by these Endo’s that even when they see a great result they don’t take the time to put more of their patients on it.
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Post by prcgorman2 on Jun 2, 2019 11:23:58 GMT -5
Two great truisms attributed to IBM are, “Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD)”, and “Nobody ever got fired for buying Big Blue”.
The first time I heard the term FUD I was told that was what IBM trained their salespeople to practice. “I’m concerned that integrating <Company X> products into the infrastructure may void our warranty or be unsupported when there is a failure.” And, “Yes, it may work, but we haven’t certified the X product”. And, finally, “It is doubtful if using X in this configuration will work acceptably”. It wasn’t clearly an unfair trade practice but still had the intended affect. Social media bashing before it was a thing!
The second truism is very interesting. IBM clearly dominated the computing market for decades. Their roots were in office equipment running back to the 1800s and they made smart investments in computing at the right time, and it paid off in spades. All that said, IBM posted the largest loss in US corporate history (up to that point) in 1992.
The common wisdom is not special because it is common. Most endos are not going to “jump on the bandwagon”. They’re going to do what they were taught and what they’re comfortable with, and not take risks with new products with surprising ALMOST UNBELIEVABLE properties. They’re going to let the pioneers get the arrows in the back and then when it’s safe and comfortable to travel by train make their way slowly west.
To me it all comes back to the perfidy of Sanofi. THEY had the responsibility to do the studies that proved efficacy, that changed the label, that proved safety and it was THEIR responsibility to show what they knew and educate endos. They never even tried. They quit before they got started in earnest. The fact that their CEO was replaced within months of the signing of the agreement shows there was not adequate support from their board or their senior executives and the lack of corporate will resulted in a lackluster effort that was quickly snuffed out.
We comment that Afrezza inhalable insulin “shifts the paradigm” calmly and without any qualification about how incredibly and amazingly difficult it is to disrupt the insulin marketplace.
This point, and the budget that MC has to work with is why I am resigned to slow progress. Fast progress simply isn’t realistic.
And punting to a big brother to have them carry the ball was not a good move for making money from Afrezza. It was a good move for assuring revenue to establish a franchise on TechnoSphere. But with the stab in the back from Sanofi, the big players would be fools to sign a similar agreement when they can just wait for Mannkind to fail and buy TechnoSphere and Afrezza for cents on the dollar. My concern is that may have been Sanofi’s plan from the beginning.
I think MC has his eye on the prize which is Afrezza. There may never be a TechnoSphere franchise, or maybe there will. UTHR was willing to put some money on it. So was RLS (but not much). There will probably be others especially if/when Mannkind converts on TreT and can continue to plod along slowly increasing the Afrezza scripts (or enjoy good fortune with quickly increasing Afrezza scripts).
Steady as she goes does not bother me. But we’ve still to hear from Lifebreath. :-)
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Post by golfeveryday on Jun 2, 2019 11:47:21 GMT -5
Two great truisms attributed to IBM are, “Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD)”, and “Nobody ever got fired for buying Big Blue”. The first time I heard the term FUD I was told that was what IBM trained their salespeople to practice. “I’m concerned that integrating <Company X> products into the infrastructure may void our warranty or be unsupported when there is a failure.” And, “Yes, it may work, but we haven’t certified the X product”. And, finally, “It is doubtful if using X in this configuration will work acceptably”. It wasn’t clearly an unfair trade practice but still had the intended affect. Social media bashing before it was a thing! The second truism is very interesting. IBM clearly dominated the computing market for decades. Their roots were in office equipment running back to the 1800s and they made smart investments in computing at the right time, and it paid off in spades. All that said, IBM posted the largest loss in US corporate history (up to that point) in 1992. The common wisdom is not special because it is common. Most endos are not going to “jump on the bandwagon”. They’re going to do what they were taught and what they’re comfortable with, and not take risks with new products with surprising ALMOST UNBELIEVABLE properties. They’re going to let the pioneers get the arrows in the back and then when it’s safe and comfortable to travel by train make their way slowly west. To me it all comes back to the perfidy of Sanofi. THEY had the responsibility to do the studies that proved efficacy, that changed the label, that proved safety and it was THEIR responsibility to show what they knew and educate endos. They never even tried. They quit before they got started in earnest. The fact that their CEO was replaced within months of the signing of the agreement shows there was not adequate support from their board or their senior executives and the lack of corporate will resulted in a lackluster effort that was quickly snuffed out. We comment that Afrezza inhalable insulin “shifts the paradigm” calmly and without any qualification about how incredibly and amazingly difficult it is to disrupt the insulin marketplace. This point, and the budget that MC has to work with is why I am resigned to slow progress. Fast progress simply isn’t realistic. And punting to a big brother to have them carry the ball was not a good move for making money from Afrezza. It was a good move for assuring revenue to establish a franchise on TechnoSphere. But with the stab in the back from Sanofi, the big players would be fools to sign a similar agreement when they can just wait for Mannkind to fail and buy TechnoSphere and Afrezza for cents on the dollar. My concern is that may have been Sanofi’s plan from the beginning. I think MC has his eye on the prize which is Afrezza. There may never be a TechnoSphere franchise, or maybe there will. UTHR was willing to put some money on it. So was RLS (but not much). There will probably be others especially if/when Mannkind converts on TreT and can continue to plod along slowly increasing the Afrezza scripts (or enjoy good fortune with quickly increasing Afrezza scripts). Steady as she goes does not bother me. But we’ve still to hear from Lifebreath. :-) 80 reps and limited money won’t cut it. Need a partner. Could likely do a better structured BP deal or seek out other innovative out of the box partners. Maybe a CGM company. Maybe a massive insurance company. Maybe a disease management company with a diabetes wellness program. Lots of options. It’s too expensive for MNKD to go alone. Its that simple. It just is. At some point they have to give up a little to get real traction on Afrezza. Once that traction hits the sky is the limit for Afrezza and unlocks value of TS. |
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Post by sweedee79 on Jun 2, 2019 12:05:21 GMT -5
Two great truisms attributed to IBM are, “Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD)”, and “Nobody ever got fired for buying Big Blue”. The first time I heard the term FUD I was told that was what IBM trained their salespeople to practice. “I’m concerned that integrating <Company X> products into the infrastructure may void our warranty or be unsupported when there is a failure.” And, “Yes, it may work, but we haven’t certified the X product”. And, finally, “It is doubtful if using X in this configuration will work acceptably”. It wasn’t clearly an unfair trade practice but still had the intended affect. Social media bashing before it was a thing! The second truism is very interesting. IBM clearly dominated the computing market for decades. Their roots were in office equipment running back to the 1800s and they made smart investments in computing at the right time, and it paid off in spades. All that said, IBM posted the largest loss in US corporate history (up to that point) in 1992. The common wisdom is not special because it is common. Most endos are not going to “jump on the bandwagon”. They’re going to do what they were taught and what they’re comfortable with, and not take risks with new products with surprising ALMOST UNBELIEVABLE properties. They’re going to let the pioneers get the arrows in the back and then when it’s safe and comfortable to travel by train make their way slowly west. To me it all comes back to the perfidy of Sanofi. THEY had the responsibility to do the studies that proved efficacy, that changed the label, that proved safety and it was THEIR responsibility to show what they knew and educate endos. They never even tried. They quit before they got started in earnest. The fact that their CEO was replaced within months of the signing of the agreement shows there was not adequate support from their board or their senior executives and the lack of corporate will resulted in a lackluster effort that was quickly snuffed out. We comment that Afrezza inhalable insulin “shifts the paradigm” calmly and without any qualification about how incredibly and amazingly difficult it is to disrupt the insulin marketplace. This point, and the budget that MC has to work with is why I am resigned to slow progress. Fast progress simply isn’t realistic. And punting to a big brother to have them carry the ball was not a good move for making money from Afrezza. It was a good move for assuring revenue to establish a franchise on TechnoSphere. But with the stab in the back from Sanofi, the big players would be fools to sign a similar agreement when they can just wait for Mannkind to fail and buy TechnoSphere and Afrezza for cents on the dollar. My concern is that may have been Sanofi’s plan from the beginning. I think MC has his eye on the prize which is Afrezza. There may never be a TechnoSphere franchise, or maybe there will. UTHR was willing to put some money on it. So was RLS (but not much). There will probably be others especially if/when Mannkind converts on TreT and can continue to plod along slowly increasing the Afrezza scripts (or enjoy good fortune with quickly increasing Afrezza scripts). Steady as she goes does not bother me. But we’ve still to hear from Lifebreath. :-) 80 reps and limited money won’t cut it. Need a partner. Could likely do a better structured BP deal or seek out other innovative out of the box partners. Maybe a CGM company. Maybe a massive insurance company. Maybe a disease management company with a diabetes wellness program. Lots of options. It’s too expensive for MNKD to go alone. Its that simple. It just is. At some point they have to give up a little to get real traction on Afrezza. Once that traction hits the sky is the limit for Afrezza and unlocks value of TS. I agree we need a partner . But I'm thinking if there was such a partner we would have had one by now.. It may be we have not had many good choices and with limited resources management has done the best they can... I do believe they could have done more with online media advertising rather than focusing so much on traditional methods. In any case I don't believe management has deserved the lashing they've gotten from some.. more transparency would be nice.. or maybe there is nothing to tell.. who knows.. Tired of obsessing about it.. going to go spend the day with my parents.. My mom has Alzheimer's and tomorrow I take her to a home . 😪 They have been together for nearly 60 years.. |
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Post by Actual Investor on Jun 2, 2019 12:21:18 GMT -5
God Bless you Sweets. This is the thing that every parent worries about and every child dreads.
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Post by sportsrancho on Jun 2, 2019 12:23:47 GMT -5
So sorry sweedee💔
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Post by sweedee79 on Jun 2, 2019 12:26:30 GMT -5
Thank you both!!!!
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Post by stockwhisperer on Jun 2, 2019 19:52:33 GMT -5
Such a heartbreak. So sorry. Makes all of this w/MNKD pale in comparison.
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Post by mango on Jun 2, 2019 19:58:15 GMT -5
Positive energy your way sweedee 🌻
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Post by falconquest on Jun 2, 2019 20:46:35 GMT -5
There is a company out there that is in the process of testing a new Alheimer's drug. To date, nothing has worked so it's a big hill to climb but this shows true promise. The point of my post is not to push a company but to advise that a real option for treating Alzheimer's may be on it's way. This disease (like diabetes) affects all of us in some way. Let's hope this treatment works.
As for prcgorman2's comments, Uhhmm, maybe the panic has to do with the share price tanking, the high likelihood of dilution in the near future and no real financial catalysts on the horizon as we drift ever closer to delisting territory.......that may have something to do with the current panic.
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Post by prcgorman2 on Jun 2, 2019 20:49:34 GMT -5
My mom and dad were together 63 years before my dad passed away. Mom also had dementia in those last years. You do what you can but eventually needs can outstrip the abilities of non-professional caregivers. My mom passed before we were forced to put her into a nursing home but my siblings and I all knew and openly acknowledged it was probably inevitable if she lived long enough. It’s hard to talk that way about people you love so much, but it is also loving to make sure they are cared for. You are doing for your mom, so feel good about that. There is no shame in caring for people you love.
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Post by sweedee79 on Jun 2, 2019 21:16:57 GMT -5
My mom and dad were together 63 years before my dad passed away. Mom also had dementia in those last years. You do what you can but eventually needs can outstrip the abilities of non-professional caregivers. My mom passed before we were forced to put her into a nursing home but my siblings and I all knew and openly acknowledged it was probably inevitable if she lived long enough. It’s hard to talk that way about people you love so much, but it is also loving to make sure they are cared for. You are doing for your mom, so feel good about that. There is no shame in caring for people you love. My mom is actually doing ok at home.. but my dad has to look after her.. I work 80 hour weeks.. when I get a few days off I'm over there.. It's hard on my dad. He is an old farmer with no patience.. and he doesn't understand all of the time .. so he is constantly stressed out.. just not a good situation.. My mom doesn't even know I'm her daughter anymore.. or that dad is her husband.. Alzheimer's is a horrible disease.. and it's gotten epidemic.. so in response to falconquest above it's so good to hear that there is some promising treatment on the horizon.. Mom recently told me she wanted to move off the farm to town so she could be around people.. so I told her she is going to have her own apartment... She would freak if I told her it was a nursing home.. so I guess as long as she is happy and well cared for I'll be ok with this too.. Thanks so much for the nice thoughts and prayers.. as much as we freak everyday and argue over this stock.. I've met some really amazing people here.. God Bless and positive energy to all!!! ❤️ |
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Post by sweedee79 on Jun 2, 2019 22:14:06 GMT -5
Back to Mnkd.. Since the December raise things have changed.. First off it was a shocker.. and it tanked the share price.. that was after we were told no dilution and Mike left a comment on Twitter saying "it's all up from here" .. or something like that and it was also deleted.
Since then he locked his Twitter account and management began to ignore us.. This all created a trust issue..
I think before we all just trusted that there was "something good going on".. we all had our "hopium"..
Since then reality has started to sink in about many things.. we don't give a pass as easily as we once did.. people are way more outspoken about their concerns.. when you don't have all of the trust and hope.. panic ensues.. and then management gives themselves a raise on top of it ..
We as investors have no earthly idea what is going to happen next.. We have Nate to calm us.
I think what is clear after the ASM is that this isn't going to happen as quickly as we had all hoped or been led to believe.. the reality is sinking in.. that is what we are seeing..
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Post by stockwhisperer on Jun 2, 2019 22:14:27 GMT -5
There is a company out there that is in the process of testing a new Alheimer's drug. To date, nothing has worked so it's a big hill to climb but this shows true promise. The point of my post is not to push a company but to advise that a real option for treating Alzheimer's may be on it's way. This disease (like diabetes) affects all of us in some way. Let's hope this treatment works. As for prcgorman2's comments, Uhhmm, maybe the panic has to do with the share price tanking, the high likelihood of dilution in the near future and no real financial catalysts on the horizon as we drift ever closer to delisting territory.......that may have something to do with the current panic. Then, on the other hand - maybe there is nothing to panic about. I might be wrong but I am going w/Nate’s thoughts & imho, words of wisdom in his latest newsletter, along w/MK’s mid July thoughts, rather than panic. On the other subject, yes - hope so much the new drug for Alzheimer’s works. Helped my Aunt when she had it in her 70’s. She no longer knew who I was or anyone else in the family. Such a horrible disease. |
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