|
|
Post by babaoriley on Aug 9, 2014 23:19:22 GMT -5
But not guessing at all when I say how great this board has become! While of course no one agrees with everyone, the posts have been uniformly extraordinary! I hope that we can keep the level of discourse going in this fashion, it is such a pleasure to come and read all of the posts.
And congratulations to all the monitors who have
done such an excellent job.
I am down in Laguna Beach for the weekend about 60 miles south of home. At this point, I think I'm honestly looking forward more to the post cc commentary here than to the cc itself.
Lots of great detective work in connecting various dots, I hope that one of the more optimistic of us hits it right on the head.
|
|
|
|
Post by bradleysbest on Aug 10, 2014 0:12:57 GMT -5
Agree with your statement about the great posts this board offers. However, I am of the thought that the CC will not bring anything more than we are continuing talks for a partner & are headed in the right direction. Hopefully I am wrong & we get the HUGE news we have all been waiting for. Just do not think it will happen.
|
|
|
|
Post by dreamboatcruise on Aug 10, 2014 11:30:30 GMT -5
Agree with your statement about the great posts this board offers. However, I am of the thought that the CC will not bring anything more than we are continuing talks for a partner & are headed in the right direction. Hopefully I am wrong & we get the HUGE news we have all been waiting for. Just do not think it will happen. They are going to have very tough questions to answer if they don't have some pretty concrete info... e.g. "you just committed to buy X million dollars worth of insulin in 2015... where is that money going to come from? You don't have the cash to do that. You haven't announced a partner so why did you commit to such a large financial obligation buying insulin?" |
|
|
|
Post by mrmookie123 on Aug 10, 2014 13:05:25 GMT -5
And It totally agree with Dreamboatcruise. Where would all that money come from with no partner?? Let's face it we have an FDA approved drug since June 27th, will little to no communication of what's been going on since. JMHO, but I am one who have put my money on Al Mann to get the right thing done for his shareholders. I believe you will hear a Partner announced Monday 5PM EST. I would want no one else as the commander of the ship other than Al Mann. He will do the right thing, however these type of deals do take time, so I'm not really sure what I'm going to hear on Monday. Even going it alone, which I do not expect, is not all that bad of a thing, although the market will re-act if no partner announced. Good Luck to Everyone, and it won't be long until we finally hear what's been going on behind the scenes. Have a great day.
|
|
|
|
Post by indigodaisy on Aug 10, 2014 13:09:48 GMT -5
But not guessing at all when I say how great this board has become! While of course no one agrees with everyone, the posts have been uniformly extraordinary! I hope that we can keep the level of discourse going in this fashion, it is such a pleasure to come and read all of the posts. And congratulations to all the monitors who have done such an excellent job.
I am down in Laguna Beach for the weekend about 60 miles south of home. At this point, I think I'm honestly looking forward more to the post cc commentary here than to the cc itself. Lots of great detective work in connecting various dots, I hope that one of the more optimistic of us hits it right on the head. Was in San Clemente earlier this week. A nice break from the Vegas heat. Holding my breath for good news Monday. A Sunday announcement would be quite welcome though wouldn't it  |
|
|
|
Post by babaoriley on Aug 10, 2014 23:11:19 GMT -5
My intuition tells me no big deal announced tomorrow, not the kind many are hoping for anyway. As to answering Mannmade's question, they will just say they are proceeding fine with the partnership, and they are very confident that they will be able to afford and sell the first batch of insulin in 2015.
Contrary to many folks' belief, I do not believe that we will be "crushed" or "hurt badly" on Tuesday if no partnership is announced, I'd say that under the no partnership announcement scenario, we will close on Tuesday no further than .25 lower than tomorrow's close, and we might even go up!
Now, if Al announces they are going it alone, then, by all means, take cover!!!! LOL!
|
|
|
|
Post by babaoriley on Aug 11, 2014 0:29:11 GMT -5
"My intuition tells me no big deal announced tomorrow." Darn, right again!! It was today, at least it was on the West Coast!
Way to go optimists!! You see what I do for you guys, I go contrary just to get the deal done, and hopefully, it's the deal we all want!!
|
|
|
|
Post by lyric14882 on Aug 11, 2014 0:31:46 GMT -5
Sucks that I was whining just seconds ago. |
|
|
|
Post by jpg on Aug 11, 2014 0:34:46 GMT -5
I think it is a pretty good deal. 2 deals actually. A supply deal and a profit splitting deal. Don't think we could have done much better and with my second favorite BP choice.
Great stuff. Congrats to all the believers and obviously to Mannkind management.
JPG
|
|
|
|
Post by babaoriley on Aug 11, 2014 0:38:45 GMT -5
Glad you like it, jpg, I value your assessment of the deal very much. I know Spiro going to think we gave it away!
|
|
|
|
Post by bradleysbest on Aug 11, 2014 0:51:45 GMT -5
Any guess on the share price at close tomorrow? Want to know how the haters will spin this deal? Looks pretty good to me!
|
|
|
|
Post by jpg on Aug 11, 2014 1:04:12 GMT -5
Glad you like it, jpg, I value your assessment of the deal very much. I know Spiro going to think we gave it away! My biggest fear by far was ending up with a second rated BP like Lilly, Astra, Pfizer and even Merck etc. (sorry to fans of these dinosaurs) . I am very interested in getting details on the second deal with Sanofi for product. This could potentially be where Sanofi management 'hides' how good a deal Mannkind got from the Sanofi critics and shareholders? This side deal could significantly minimize career risk to Sanofi management and 'discretely' make us a lot more money then the 35-65% profit/ loss split would lead us to believe. Basically Mannkind is 'double dipping' on sales then profits. On top of all this this set up lets Mannkind keeps all the IP for a very very long time (ie: buyout down the road). I certainly am happy and will buy more (for the first time since sub 3$) if the market doesn't like the deal... JPG |
|
|
|
Post by whosmitchconnor on Aug 11, 2014 1:13:17 GMT -5
Any guess on the share price at close tomorrow? Want to know how the haters will spin this deal? Looks pretty good to me! Hopefully a spike mirroring post AdCom rather than post approval. The $18-20 range that people were looking for a few months back looks unattainable. I don't think we'll close above $10; that could just be me not getting my hopes up, but the shorts will be working nonstop tomorrow keeping the pps in check. My guess is they're going to attack the upfront payment with bold headlines like 'MannKind sells 'blockbuster' drug for only $150 million,' while completely ignoring the entirety of the deal. My favorite part of the deal is that we retain Technosphere technology. |
|
|
|
Post by babaoriley on Aug 11, 2014 1:13:54 GMT -5
I really am so happy you like the deal, jpg!!
Yes, the sales of the product could be a huge cash cow for us. Hopefully, the pricing will allow us to make a nice profit; my guess it the pricing will be on a cost plus basis, so the size of the "plus" they negotiated would be the key. And, of course, it should also be tied into our cost from the other French company we just did a deal with. It may also be tied into the amount of purchases of insulin from us, perhaps our profit margin gets a bit better as we hit larger sales? Or vice versa is possible, too.
I'm hoping it's not one of those, "lose a little on the sale of each unit, but make it up on volume" type of deals!
|
|
|
|
Post by babaoriley on Aug 11, 2014 1:14:06 GMT -5
double post, sorry, too excited!
|
|
