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Post by bthomas55ep on Jun 18, 2019 6:40:48 GMT -5
How close to Mike C's speaking engagement at the JMP tomorrow will the next secondary be announced? Got a feeling we see one shortly. Hope not, but rather hope they announce another milestone payment next instead.
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Post by falconquest on Jun 18, 2019 7:06:37 GMT -5
Mike could be setting himself up for failure. By ignoring VDEX he'll need to deliver something to shareholders or they will seriously wonder why he didn't at least list to Bill McCullough.
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Post by matt on Jun 18, 2019 7:33:30 GMT -5
How close to Mike C's speaking engagement at the JMP tomorrow will the next secondary be announced? Not for a while. A secondary presumes that there are a sufficient number of authorized shares available to sell, but the company is almost out of shares at this point and authorization of additional shares for any purpose requires an affirmative vote of shareholders at a special meeting. Due to the mechanics of calling a special meeting and the time required for proxy solicitation, that takes at least four weeks to accomplish so there should be no surprises. The only potential option that the company has it to designate some of the 10 million shares of "blank check preferred" which have been duly authorized. The way blank check preferreds work, the board can adopt a certificate of designation (or multiple certificates) that gives those shares whatever rights the board deems fit, so a single preferred could be make equivalent to 10,000 common (for example). That is legally possible but it is rarely done in public companies except in extreme cases. Suffice it to say blank check preferred is not popular with common shareholders. |
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Post by bthomas55ep on Jun 18, 2019 11:52:38 GMT -5
How close to Mike C's speaking engagement at the JMP tomorrow will the next secondary be announced? Not for a while. A secondary presumes that there are a sufficient number of authorized shares available to sell, but the company is almost out of shares at this point and authorization of additional shares for any purpose requires an affirmative vote of shareholders at a special meeting. Due to the mechanics of calling a special meeting and the time required for proxy solicitation, that takes at least four weeks to accomplish so there should be no surprises. The only potential option that the company has it to designate some of the 10 million shares of "blank check preferred" which have been duly authorized. The way blank check preferreds work, the board can adopt a certificate of designation (or multiple certificates) that gives those shares whatever rights the board deems fit, so a single preferred could be make equivalent to 10,000 common (for example). That is legally possible but it is rarely done in public companies except in extreme cases. Suffice it to say blank check preferred is not popular with common shareholders. Very nice overview Matt. Thanks for the details. I felt sure this speaking engagement at JMP was going to be coupled with dilution. |
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Post by Thundersnow on Jun 18, 2019 11:53:13 GMT -5
How close to Mike C's speaking engagement at the JMP tomorrow will the next secondary be announced? Not for a while. A secondary presumes that there are a sufficient number of authorized shares available to sell, but the company is almost out of shares at this point and authorization of additional shares for any purpose requires an affirmative vote of shareholders at a special meeting. Due to the mechanics of calling a special meeting and the time required for proxy solicitation, that takes at least four weeks to accomplish so there should be no surprises. The only potential option that the company has it to designate some of the 10 million shares of "blank check preferred" which have been duly authorized. The way blank check preferreds work, the board can adopt a certificate of designation (or multiple certificates) that gives those shares whatever rights the board deems fit, so a single preferred could be make equivalent to 10,000 common (for example). That is legally possible but it is rarely done in public companies except in extreme cases. Suffice it to say blank check preferred is not popular with common shareholders. AUTH: 250,000,000 OS: 188,000,000 |
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Post by broncolife on Jun 18, 2019 12:49:58 GMT -5
How close to Mike C's speaking engagement at the JMP tomorrow will the next secondary be announced? Got a feeling we see one shortly. Hope not, but rather hope they announce another milestone payment next instead. Why would you post this? Nothing but hyperbole and pure speculation. Are u looking for attention? If so you got a few responses. |
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Post by sportsrancho on Jun 18, 2019 13:06:02 GMT -5
No I don’t think that’s fair, that’s why they go to these things.. it’s what everybody’s thinking, plus the CFO is going to talk to investors afterwards.
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Post by agedhippie on Jun 18, 2019 14:25:50 GMT -5
Not for a while. A secondary presumes that there are a sufficient number of authorized shares available to sell, but the company is almost out of shares at this point and authorization of additional shares for any purpose requires an affirmative vote of shareholders at a special meeting. Due to the mechanics of calling a special meeting and the time required for proxy solicitation, that takes at least four weeks to accomplish so there should be no surprises. The only potential option that the company has it to designate some of the 10 million shares of "blank check preferred" which have been duly authorized. The way blank check preferreds work, the board can adopt a certificate of designation (or multiple certificates) that gives those shares whatever rights the board deems fit, so a single preferred could be make equivalent to 10,000 common (for example). That is legally possible but it is rarely done in public companies except in extreme cases. Suffice it to say blank check preferred is not popular with common shareholders. AUTH: 250,000,000 OS: 188,000,000 You should probably put ALLOCATED in there as well otherwise people are going to think that the 62M shares to sell which there are not. |
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Post by mannmade on Jun 18, 2019 14:32:48 GMT -5
Yes I was going to clarify that as well Aged. There are approximately 25m shares reserved for the $1.60 warrants so actaully currently there are approximately 37m shares available.
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Post by mytakeonit on Jun 18, 2019 14:38:24 GMT -5
Okay ... can I have them?  Please. But, that's mytakeonit |
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Post by rtmd on Jun 18, 2019 15:33:29 GMT -5
Yes I was going to clarify that as well Aged. There are approximately 25m shares reserved for the $1.60 warrants so actaully currently there are approximately 37m shares available. Aren't there also shares reserved for employee options? |
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Post by mannmade on Jun 18, 2019 15:59:52 GMT -5
I believe you are rght I dont recall how many.
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Post by barnstormer on Jun 18, 2019 16:16:42 GMT -5
No I don’t think that’s fair, that’s why they go to these things.. it’s what everybody’s thinking, plus the CFO is going to talk to investors afterwards. Agree, bthomas asked a fair question. After the December massacre we are all on edge. With refills hemoraging out the back end and cash tight I think we are all concerned about the next round of dilution. |
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Post by awesomo on Jun 18, 2019 16:31:47 GMT -5
There is one reason for going to these types of conferences, financing. It's not for finding strategic partners or trying to persuade the medical community.
So yeah, the fact that Mike keeps parading around on these events yet pulls out of ADA is worrisome.
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Post by mannmade on Jun 18, 2019 17:18:53 GMT -5
Assumptions:
a. Mnkd as of the first week in June has somewhere around $42m in cash.
b. Cash burn appears to be estimated at about $8m per month (possibly $9m) since the end of DTC
c. Afrezza net revenue seems to be averaging about $2.1m per month
d. That leaves a negative $5.9m estimated negative cash burn per month
The DF payment of $11.5m is due in July as is an insulin payment of $2.5m or so from what I understand.
This will bring cash down to $28m less operating expenses for July, plus $2.1m for Afrezza revenue, or a net cash position of about $22m
With six months left in the year, lets say $2.4m ave per month in net revenue for total of $14.4m net revenue from Afrezza for remainder of the year. With a net cash burn of $8m per month for a total of $48m for the rest of the year minus $14.4 for additional net Afrezza revenue, there is an expected/estimated negative operating burn of ($33.6). Not sure of any other extraordinary expenses/costs coming up this year.
Now with $22m estimated to be left by end of June that leaves mnkd short by approxiately ($11.5m) for the year.
Now for the options:
Option 1: The company has approximately (I am not really sure of this number) 14m shares on the shelf with the return of the $2.38 warrants
Additionally, if the $1.60 warrants are not exercised mnkd wil have another 25m or so shares for about 39m shares or so. (est guess on my part). (If sold at today's price of around $1.25 that gives mnkn another $48m or so.)
Option 2: The $1.60 warrants are execrcised for an additional $40m
Option 3: Some combination of 1 or 2 above and one or more of the below:
a. Second UTHR milestone payment for $12.5m
b. Second molecule for $15m/$15m payment(s)
Seems to me that this is playing it too close to the vest without the knowledge of something else being out there for revenue. Perhaps a loan against assets once DF is removed. I am not sure.
However without some form of increased regular revenue (from scripts or whatever) or a partner of some kind it seems mnkd will be back in the same boat rowing upstream next year after they get through the next set of rapids.
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Please.
