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Post by centralcoastinvestor on Jun 19, 2019 13:31:25 GMT -5
The webcast from this morning is available now on the Mnkd website. IT IS WORTH IT TO LISTEN CLOSELY TO THIS HALF HOUR UPDATE!
Here are my takeaways after listening to the whole webcast twice and some parts 3 or 4 times:
1. Main reason for deferral of the payment to Dearfield was because Mike wanted to show the market that he is not willing to transfer stock in the short term at these prices. This is a very interesting statement. This may be an indication that Mike believes that there are upcoming catalysts that could drive the share price higher.
2. Mike said that there are nice indicators showing improved Afrezza sales trends heading into Q3. I love the sound of that.
3. Mike is very excited about Brazil. Mike said that both MannKind and Biomm were surprised at the excitement that was generated within the country by the announcement of the approval of Afrezza. It was on the front page of both major newspapers in Brazil. Mike believes this is true because this is the first new choice being offered to diabetics in Brazil in a long time. CGMs and pumps are really not available in large quantities in Brazil so Afrezza is the “new” thing.
4. Technosphere is a big deal. A large limitation of most dry powder delivery systems is the ability to manufacture large quantities. MannKind doesn’t have that problem. He sees no significant competition for the next 10 years.
5. He sees Afrezza changing diabetes care for the next 20 to 40 years.
6. UTHR process moving along well.
7. Epinephrine is now back in play. Change in FDA views on alternative delivery systems now makes it worth a new look.
8. CGM sales are sky rocketing. This is only good news for Afrezza as people see that their time in range sucks. Afrezza can fix that.
9. The Levin study is very helpful going forward. It mapped out a simple straight forward approach to titrating new patients onto Afrezza that were struggling on their current medications. The results of the study were dramatic.
10. Pediatrics study continues to move forward nicely.
Folks, I don’t know about you, but MannKind and Mike C are firing on all cylinders right now. The share price sucks but that can change on a dime. In my opinion, todays webcast just reinforced my confidence in the company. Ignore the negative noise.
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Post by od on Jun 19, 2019 13:40:32 GMT -5
The webcast from this morning is available now on the Mnkd website. IT IS WORTH IT TO LISTEN CLOSELY TO THIS HALF HOUR UPDATE! Here are my takeaways after listening to the whole webcast twice and some parts 3 or 4 times: 1. Main reason for deferral of the payment to Dearfield was because Mike wanted to show the market that he is not willing to transfer stock in the short term at these prices. This is a very interesting statement. This may be an indication that Mike believes that there are upcoming catalysts that could drive the share price higher. 2. Mike said that there are nice indicators showing improved Afrezza sales trends heading into Q3. I love the sound of that. 3. Mike is very excited about Brazil. Mike said that both MannKind and Biomm were surprised at the excitement that was generated within the country by the announcement of the approval of Afrezza. It was on the front page of both major newspapers in Brazil. Mike believes this is true because this is the first new choice being offered to diabetics in Brazil in a long time. CGMs and pumps are really not available in large quantities in Brazil so Afrezza is the “new” thing. 4. Technosphere is a big deal. A large limitation of most dry powder delivery systems is the ability to manufacture large quantities. MannKind doesn’t have that problem. He sees no significant competition for the next 10 years. 5. He sees Afrezza changing diabetes care for the next 20 to 40 years. 6. UTHR process moving along well. 7. Epinephrine is now back in play. Change in FDA views on alternative delivery systems now makes it worth a new look. 8. CGM sales are sky rocketing. This is only good news for Afrezza as people see that their time in range sucks. Afrezza can fix that. 9. The Levin study is very helpful going forward. It mapped out a simple straight forward approach to titration new patients onto Afrezza that were struggling on their current medications. The results of the study were dramatic. 10. Pediatrics study continues to move forward nicely. Folks, I don’t know about you, but MannKind and Mike C are firing on all cylinders right now. The share price sucks but that can change on a dime. In my opinion, todays webcast just reinforced my confidence in the company. Ignore the negative noise. Ignore the negative noise? Really? Listen to all the noise. Frankly, for me the past positive noise from management has been more noise than fact. "Mike said that there are nice indicators showing improved Afrezza sales trends...", I am not sure, but think we have heard similar guidance in the past. Before I am slammed, yes, I continue to support MC, with 'eyes (and ears) wide open'.
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Post by mytakeonit on Jun 19, 2019 14:14:57 GMT -5
Well that's odd ... because I'm still loading up shares ... and hope if it can go down a little bit more. Oops! Went back up another penny.
But, that's mytakeonit
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Post by figglebird on Jun 19, 2019 14:33:50 GMT -5
Look, knowledge and understanding are what is important in terms of conviction or lack there of - I will not elaborate much more but will highlight why NUMBER 4 is as Mike noted the most important. What was his likely thinking about this?
What is he really communicating or trying to especially w follow through about going to p1
You have to dig deeper regarding what it is on a whole Dpis(not just mnkd) face as obstacles.
And btw, not many(dpi) besides us even have the luxury of claiming market acceptance as an obstacle- in fact Mike and team may start viewing that facet as the key advantage
The real obstacle is/will be getting to mkt.
Dpis require dual Approval(device, excipient/api/formulation) that cannot in any way easily be transferred.
Having already been approved the manufacturing capacity is doubly important as he contends not only because it is the only one stop shop of its kind as he purports BUT the only dpi candidate now prepared to handle post approval FDA INSPECTIONS.
He is signifying what a lead looks like in a category that even a wide leader has failed thus far to translate into sucsess.
Thus far does not however necessitate not continuing to build on that lead - for a bet on mnkd is simply a wager that reality will catch up at which point the dpi moat mannkind is widening will be invariably more valuable than what may just appear as infrastructure not yet fully utilized.
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Post by peppy on Jun 19, 2019 14:43:00 GMT -5
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Post by markado on Jun 19, 2019 15:05:23 GMT -5
I need to listen, but, from other threads a 5yr contract with Kaiser Permanente was mentioned. That could provide access to millions of PWD in more than just CA, with an insurer that is very outcome focused. This is a win and a strong step in the right direction! For less than .5m, MNKD could outfit and customize an RV to look like a dreamboat and ride up and down CA serving as a 4 dimensional billboard and info hub providing demonstrations for PWD, Endos, PCPs, etc., attending key JDF or other events throughout the state.
Our 2,000 scripts per week are coming closer within reach.
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Post by rtmd on Jun 19, 2019 15:12:57 GMT -5
I don't quite understand the part about "not willing to transfer stock in the short term at these prices." I thought they had around 40 million dollars, why would they need to sell stock in order to make the debt payment?
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Post by mytakeonit on Jun 19, 2019 15:27:45 GMT -5
Stock is free ... money is not. If MNKD pps goes higher, then less shares will have to be given in the pay back.
But, I already took the 37M shares that was offered to me.
But, that's mytakeonit
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Post by peppy on Jun 19, 2019 15:29:02 GMT -5
I need to listen, but, from other threads a 5yr contract with Kaiser Permanente was mentioned. That could provide access to millions of PWD in more than just CA, with an insurer that is very outcome focused. This is a win and a strong step in the right direction! For less than .5m, MNKD could outfit and customize an RV to look like a dreamboat and ride up and down CA serving as a 4 dimensional billboard and info hub providing demonstrations for PWD, Endos, PCPs, etc., attending key JDF or other events throughout the state. Our 2,000 scripts per week are coming closer within reach. Quote: 5yr contract with Kaiser Permanente was mentioned. Question, what tier was this contract for? the last I remember it was for tier 4. Mike did not mention the tier. Mike did mention, Brazil ordered, we will learn how much the next quarterly conference call?
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Post by rtmd on Jun 19, 2019 15:37:36 GMT -5
Stock is free ... money is not. If MNKD pps goes higher, then less shares will have to be given in the pay back. But, I already took the 37M shares that was offered to me. But, that's mytakeonit The elephant in the middle of your assessment is the word "if." I still don't see why, if they have 40-45 million dollars, they couldn't have just made the payment.
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Post by liane on Jun 19, 2019 15:38:37 GMT -5
MNKD usually resolves their debt payments to Deerfield with stock. Higher stock price = fewer shares.
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Post by mytakeonit on Jun 19, 2019 15:43:43 GMT -5
In any case, MNKD will probably convert the deal to shares instead of cash. Deerfield is probably fine with that since MNKD pps IS going up in the long run and will be worth more than any interest rate. Note the new elephant in the middle?
But, that's mytakeonit
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Post by mnholdem on Jun 19, 2019 16:33:39 GMT -5
Except the remaining debt doesn’t fall under the definition “in the long run.” It’s near-term debt and Deerfield always converts the stock to cash immediately.
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Post by rockstarrick on Jun 19, 2019 17:24:57 GMT -5
MNKD usually resolves their debt payments to Deerfield with stock. Higher stock price = fewer shares. I thought paying in shares was the “Deal”, like they have to pay in shares. Dont quote me, I’m just the Bass Player 🎸😎
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Post by churchmouse on Jun 19, 2019 18:02:33 GMT -5
Listening to the Webcast from the JPM conference today I found it interesting that at about 21:50 Mike talks about the Pipeline and In-license agreements and he mentions that MNKD is always looking to "bring in other stuff whether through ACQUISITIONS or CO PROMOTES or vise versa." I was struck by what Castagna would want to acquire and I keep coming back to RLS. Obviously we would need more cash on hand to make that purchase, but another cash infusion could be there after the 2nd UT molecule is officially added to our pipeline.
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