Brazil

[sellhighdrinklow]

Sept 29, 2019 11:31:26 GMT -5 awesomo said:

Sept 29, 2019 8:07:40 GMT -5 Clement said:

How many rich diabetics in Brazil can pay for an inhaled mealtime insulin that works better than anything else?
WAG : less than 1% of 10% of 200 million? .... so, less than 200,000.
Wait a minute ... that's still a lot.

Whats the market penetration in the U.S. again?  These broad stroke market sizing are meaningless.

Not really. Math is math.

[letitride]

The market penetration will be just fine all around the world and then it will get better, when insurance companies get on board in their own best interest.

[ktim]

Sept 29, 2019 17:55:49 GMT -5 letitride said:

The market penetration will be just fine all around the world and then it will get better, when insurance companies get on board in their own best interest.

That's a nice sentiment, but one of the surprising things for me in being invested in MNKD for years was learning more about our pharma industry and how the insurers and PBMs have gamed the system in their own best interest in order to maximize profits often by inflating the overall costs of medicines, not reducing them... creating a system of maximum treatment rather than maximum health.

[letitride]

Sept 29, 2019 18:28:37 GMT -5 ktim said:

Sept 29, 2019 17:55:49 GMT -5 letitride said:

The market penetration will be just fine all around the world and then it will get better, when insurance companies get on board in their own best interest.

That's a nice sentiment, but one of the surprising things for me in being invested in MNKD for years was learning more about our pharma industry and how the insurers and PBMs have gamed the system in their own best interest in order to maximize profits often by inflating the overall costs of medicines, not reducing them... creating a system of maximum treatment rather than maximum health.

   There is a time and place for everything. Bad medicine has had its time and place. Afrezza has a whole new bench mark if for no other reason than ease of use.

[awesomo]

Sept 29, 2019 17:24:31 GMT -5 sellhighdrinklow said:

Sept 29, 2019 11:31:26 GMT -5 awesomo said:

Whats the market penetration in the U.S. again?  These broad stroke market sizing are meaningless.

Not really. Math is math.

LOL, that ain't math.  It is baseless conjecture.  He pulled out the percentages from nothing other than "gee that's a small percentage, surely there are that many rich diabetics who will all buy loads of Afrezza!".

[letitride]

There is nothing fictional about market size for diabetes it grows annually. Afrezza is as good as it gets in meal time insulin.

[longliner]

Sept 29, 2019 19:06:23 GMT -5 letitride said:

There is nothing fictional about market size for diabetes it grows annually. Afrezza is as good as it gets in meal time insulin.

And if I had any money...I would buy at dawn!

[awesomo]

Sept 29, 2019 19:06:23 GMT -5 letitride said:

There is nothing fictional about market size for diabetes it grows annually. Afrezza is as good as it gets in meal time insulin.

How’s that working out for them in the U.S.?

[Clement]

Sept 29, 2019 8:07:40 GMT -5 Clement said:

How many rich diabetics in Brazil can pay for an inhaled mealtime insulin that works better than anything else?
WAG : less than 1% of 10% of 200 million? .... so, less than 200,000.
Wait a minute ... that's still a lot.

Here's a little explanation:
less than 1% -- rich people
10%             -- diabetics
200 million    -- population of Brazil.

[mnholdem]

Potential vs projections. This is hardly worth a fight over. Nobody can really know how Afrezza sales will grow in Brazil. Unfortunately, shareholders have no choice but to wait and see, right?

[awesomo]

We also have no idea what the revenue share between MannKind and Biomm is. So even if sales do well, we may not see much benefit other than lower COGS.

[Deleted]

Sept 30, 2019 8:11:39 GMT -5 awesomo said:

We also have no idea what the revenue share between MannKind and Biomm is. So even if sales do well, we may not see much benefit other than lower COGS.

I think you mean improved margins and not lower COGS. 

[agedhippie]

Sept 30, 2019 6:08:49 GMT -5 Clement said:

Sept 29, 2019 8:07:40 GMT -5 Clement said:

How many rich diabetics in Brazil can pay for an inhaled mealtime insulin that works better than anything else?
WAG : less than 1% of 10% of 200 million? .... so, less than 200,000.
Wait a minute ... that's still a lot.

Here's a little explanation:
less than 1% -- rich people
10%             -- diabetics
200 million    -- population of Brazil.

What you need is the number of insulin using diabetics in the 1%, not the total number of diabetics in the top 1%.

Assume 20% (based on Type 1 and some Type 2) and you get a total addressable market of 40,000. Based on the US uptake Afrezza gets a small percentage of that.

[mytakeonit]

Why bother with number of diabetics in Brazil ? Easier to just count containers going out the door to the pier.

But, that's mytakeonit

[matt]

Sept 30, 2019 8:05:37 GMT -5 mnholdem said:

Potential vs projections. This is hardly worth a fight over. Nobody can really know how Afrezza sales will grow in Brazil. Unfortunately, shareholders have no choice but to wait and see, right?

That is correct; you can argue all day but until you see real numbers none of it matters. 

What might be relevant though is how well Biomm does with their other products, for example they sell a biosimilar that competes with Basaglar and a biosimilar of Herceptin.  Their sales for 2018 were Reals 1566 thousand = US$377 thousand with losses of more than US$10 million.  They are a real company with an established presence, but that seems like a pretty modest sales result.  It might take them some time to make a dent in the insulin market since they will be going up against Sanofi, Lilly, and Novo plus some local producers.

BTW, the pricing matrix has not yet been updated for October.  Last month it came out after the close of business on September 2nd so we may not see it for a few days.  I will post it when I have it.