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Post by slushy on Aug 11, 2014 9:32:54 GMT -5
I've got a lot to catch up work wise and don't have time right now to do the fundamentals on what we should realistically expect from this news with Sanofi. Can someone put together a quick burn of how this all plays out?
As far as I can tell, we partnered with probably the best partner we could. Top 5 big pharma in the world, #1 in diabetes with a long acting insulin that would be a perfect coupling for Afrezza. They have a knowledgeable sales force and an existing consumer base that would be an easy one-two with Lantus/Afrezza. We maintained manufacturing rights and didn't have to give up our real gem in technosphere. The broad strokes seem like a home run.
So what does this all mean? How does the 65/35 split play out for us? How much should we expect from maintaining the manufacturing rights? What PPS should we realistically expect when those first sales numbers come out? Can we justify the market cap of 3.5B we currently have? I'd love to put this together but I just got back from vacation and have a ton to catch up on work wise. Would appreciate if someone could do a deep dive.
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Post by mnholdem on Aug 11, 2014 10:12:09 GMT -5
We maintained manufacturing rights and didn't have to give up our real gem in technosphere. The broad strokes seem like a home run. So what does this all mean? How does the 65/35 split play out for us? How much should we expect from maintaining the manufacturing rights? What PPS should we realistically expect when those first sales numbers come out? Can we justify the market cap of 3.5B we currently have? I'd love to put this together but I just got back from vacation and have a ton to catch up on work wise. Would appreciate if someone could do a deep dive. The upfronts pays off debt, and with Sanofi reimbursing 100% of the manufacturing costs, Mannkind manufactures Afrezza at no cost, then collects 35% of the profit.
I'm thinking that Afrezza costs very little per unit and the margins, even when competitively priced with injected insulin, will be quite high. Short term valuation will improve, but without knowing the margins or having a sales forecasts? Tough nut to crack.
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