Mnkd future

[bradleysbest]

How does this partnership with Sanofi impact a potential buyout of Mannkind down the road? Does this partnership limit the ability for a.buyout down the road?

[babaoriley]

I would guess there's at least a right of first refusal in favor of Sanofi. And I'm sure there are many big pharmas that won't want to end up being Sanofi's partner, especially since they would be the minority partner. When you partner like this, you basically tie yourself to your big brother partner. Just part of the process, nothing unusual. It's a good thing, and quickly accelerating sales will be the thing to look for. But that's going to take a while, what else is new? I hope we have a very good understanding of how the accounting for profit works on this deal, I'm sure Matt and our outside accountants have that covered.

[kc]

I see it happnen when sales begin.  Keep your eye on MDT.  They have a partnership with Sanofi in the Diabetes market.   I think that in 12 -18 months that will occur.  

newsroom.medtronic.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=251324&p=irol-newsArticle&id=1939865
Sanofi and Medtronic to Form Strategic Alliance in Diabetes to Improve Patient Experience and Outcomes

Initial Focus on Insulin-Device Combinations and Care Management Services

PARIS, FRANCE, AND MINNEAPOLIS, MN - June 14, 2014 - Sanofi (EURONEXT: SAN and NYSE: SNY) and Medtronic, Inc. (NYSE: MDT) today announced that they have signed a memorandum of understanding to enter into a global strategic alliance in diabetes, aimed at improving patient experience and outcomes for people with diabetes around the world. The alliance will initially focus on two key priorities: the development of drug-device combinations and delivery of care management services to improve adherence, simplify insulin treatment, and help people with diabetes better manage their condition.

The alliance will be structured as an open-innovation model, leveraging the capabilities, as well as the human and financial resources, of both companies. Based on the success of the two initial priorities, the companies may explore other areas for potential collaboration.

"We know that insulin and other medicines are only one element of treating the whole patient. There is no day off in managing diabetes, and lack of adherence is one of the major hurdles to optimal disease management. That is why Sanofi is committed to developing integrated care solutions that focus on making life easier for people with diabetes and improving clinical outcomes that may help reduce costs to the overall healthcare system," commented Pascale Witz, executive vice president of Global Divisions & Strategic Development, Sanofi. "Through this important collaboration, Sanofi will tap into technology advances that aim to create holistic treatment solutions which take into account the individual patient's needs."

"Diabetes is unfortunately rising in prevalence around the world, driving up system costs and, most importantly, adversely impacting the lives of millions of people. Like Sanofi, we believe there is tremendous opportunity to better align care across the diabetes care continuum through new and varied technologies and patient care management strategies," said Omar Ishrak, chairman and chief executive officer of Medtronic. "Medtronic is committed to taking a broader approach, expanding beyond our core strength in Type 1 diabetes, to co-develop an array of technologies and patient services that will deliver superior clinical outcomes at an affordable price. We also know we can't do it alone - so we are particularly excited to join in this effort with Sanofi who, like us, is committed to exploring new avenues and approaches to solving the challenges associated with diabetes."

The alliance will pair Sanofi's extensive insulin portfolio and drug development expertise with Medtronic's expertise in insulin pumps and continuous glucose monitoring. One of the priorities of the alliance will be to deliver novel drug-device combinations, including new form factors that are affordable, convenient and easy to-use to increase therapy adherence and deliver better outcomes. These efforts will focus on improving the management of Type 2 diabetes, especially for people who cannot achieve glucose control even with multiple daily injections of insulin.

Care management services, another priority area for collaboration, will be delivered through a program designed to guide people with Type 2 diabetes who are failing to achieve disease control on oral therapies through the initiation phase of insulin treatment. Insulin initiation can be challenging as a high number of patients drop insulin treatment in this early phase.

As world leaders in complementary segments of diabetes care, Sanofi and Medtronic already have an agreement in place serving specific Type 1 diabetes patients in Europe with an implantable insulin delivery system, and intend to add this project and additional innovative projects to the alliance. Implementation of the alliance is subject to the negotiation and execution of a definitive agreement between the companies.

[sonic22]

Love seeing Pfeffer make statements like the one below in regards to David Kliff.    Couldn't have asked for a better partner.  The AF's of the world will keep on bashing but now we have SNY to market Afrezza.  The #s will speak for itself once it starts sellling in Q1.   Holding long and strong.


In a note to clients, Diabetic Investor analyst David Kliff called this a “sweet deal” for MannKind, but a sign of desperation for Sanofi. “If Sanofi truly believes that Afrezza is the answer to their problems then they’re in worse shape than we thought.” …The product is “not a bad drug, but it isn’t the blockbuster product many believe it is. Afrezza is nothing more than a niche product that will reach peak sales in the hundreds of millions, at best.”

Why? He argues that Afrezza dosing may not be easy and will require greater patient training. Moreover, he believes that Afrezza will be reimbursed by insurers, but at a price to consumers. Insurers are will offer reimbursement, but at a level that will mean a higher out-of-pocket expense for patients. “The question,” he writes, “is will patients pay this difference just so they don’t have to inject?”

And how does MannKind react to such assessments?

The chief financial officer, Matt Pfeffer, sent us this note: “We have done substantial market research that has convinced us that the potential for Afrezza is many, many times what Mr. Kliff is speculating. Equally important, this independent research was validated by Sanofi and other potential partners, who did their own research into market potential prior to entering into discussions with MannKind. Sanofi did not become such a powerhouse in the field of diabetes by making foolish or uninformed choices, and I don’t think their deal with us is an exception.

“In regards to his other contentions, I believe he is simply wrong. Based on quite a lot of research with actual patients, much of it FDA mandated studies, we believe that contrary to what Mr. Kliff suggests may occur, the evidence suggests that Afrezza is in fact easier to dose than injected insulin, as it requires less dose titration, and we have found it much easier to train patients to use Afrezza than it is to train them to use traditional injected insulin.

“In regards to end-user pricing, I believe Mr. Kliff is again mistaken. I do not imagine he has engaged in extensive discussions with hundreds of reimbursement agents regarding Afrezza, as we have. Those discussions were the basis for our initial conclusion that we should price Afrezza comparably to insulin pens. Our discussions with these agents convinced us that Afrezza could move to Tier 2 reimbursement status relatively quickly, thus avoiding any price disadvantage to the end user. Mr. Kliff has stated that we have said all along that we plan to ask for premium pricing for our product, but this is simply not true. We have consistently said that our intention was to price Afrezza at levels comparable to existing insulins in pen form. So I believe his conclusions are based on a false premise.”

[seanismorris]

I think this is the same 'Diabetic Investor' that our friend over at TheStreet quoted, and he's been dead wrong!  

I'd say this is a good deal for Mannkind, but a FANTASTIC deal for Sanofi.

Good job Matt putting this bozo in this place!

 

[sonic22]

Seanismorris,

Yes you are correct. Seems Kliff an AF are the same type.  Pretty ridiculous how they think this partnership is bad.    I think once SNY starts ramping up for the launch we will see the shareprice start to rise.  Im in this for the long haul so im very happy they got a great partner in a short timeframe and can now launch in Q1 2015.    As I said the #s and sales will come.  

[mnholdem]

It's nice now that the information blackout is lifted, Mannkind and Sanofi can and will take the gloves off and go after these misleading pundits.

[4Balance]

Aug 11, 2014 14:22:41 GMT -5 mnholdem said:

It's nice now that the information blackout is lifted, Mannkind and Sanofi can and will take the gloves off and go after these misleading pundits.

I sure as heck hope so.  But their focus will be on sales...not share price...so they will pick their battles...

[dreamboatcruise]

Aug 11, 2014 12:47:15 GMT -5 sonic22 said:

“In regards to end-user pricing, I believe Mr. Kliff is again mistaken. I do not imagine he has engaged in extensive discussions with hundreds of reimbursement agents regarding Afrezza, as we have. Those discussions were the basis for our initial conclusion that we should price Afrezza comparably to insulin pens. Our discussions with these agents convinced us that Afrezza could move to Tier 2 reimbursement status relatively quickly, thus avoiding any price disadvantage to the end user. Mr. Kliff has stated that we have said all along that we plan to ask for premium pricing for our product, but this is simply not true. We have consistently said that our intention was to price Afrezza at levels comparable to existing insulins in pen form. So I believe his conclusions are based on a false premise.”

It seems like the short thesis is a pretty weak one if it involves assuming Mannkind is incorrect about what their own pricing will be.

[seanismorris]

It was alway possible Mannkind was wrong about Afrezza potential.  

Sanofi partnering with Mannkind means they also think Afrezza will be a blockbuster.

Now, the Shorts go up against Sanofi a premiere diabetes company.

Our Long position has been validated.  

I wouldn't want to be a Short, MNKD's stock will be harder to manipulate going forward.

Afrezza's pricing is no longer an issue, with Sanofi supplying the insulin they can even market it worldwide with reduced margins but remain very profitable.

[babaoriley]

"I wouldn't want to be a Short, MNKD's stock will be harder to manipulate going forward."

sean, what you say above makes perfect sense, but we're in Alice in Wonderland around here, the rules of normal logic don't necessarily apply. Today's share price action is evidence of that.

[seanismorris]

Baba,

I agree the Shorts have been able to manipulate the price short term, but they have never been able to prevent MNKD reaching new 52 week highs longer term (on positive news).

I'm looking to pick up another 1000 shares as a trade, I see an easy ~30% quick return with very little risk.

My last purchase of 1000 shares was at $8.45.

I'll sell both at $12 within the next 6 months.

Just have a little fun, until I get the big payoff from the Long position.

[gamblerjag]

Good ole Al...  too damn funny...  Matt had to say we didn't discloe that SNY had .....

[mnholdem]

Aug 11, 2014 15:39:35 GMT -5 babaoriley said:

"I wouldn't want to be a Short, MNKD's stock will be harder to manipulate going forward."

sean, what you say above makes perfect sense, but we're in Alice in Wonderland around here, the rules of normal logic don't necessarily apply. Today's share price action is evidence of that.

David Kiff's soft attack on Sanofi. saying the deal is a sign of their desperation, is a good example of how continued naysaying may affect the market's perception of this deal. No mention of how Afrezza is a perfect complement to #1 Lantus, instead pundits like Kliff will imply that Afrezza is a gimmick, not to be taken seriously.

Questions taken at this afternoon's Q2 conference were all from investment banks/firms trying to flesh out some numbers. To my disappointment Sanofi is not ready to reveal forecasts at this time, for proprietary reasons according to Matt and, absent any forecasts, a wide range of analyst targets could persist, as well as continued ammunition to keep the lid on share price.

It's frustrating, but we have to consider that the wider market is largely ignorant about Afrezza and until Sanofi's marketing machine changes that, Alice is still in the rabbit hole.