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Post by mnkdfann on Sept 11, 2019 0:02:42 GMT -5
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Post by boca1girl on Sept 11, 2019 8:02:27 GMT -5
Since SO’s tone has turned positive, I enjoy seeing him publish articles on MNKD. Beats the days where I cringed with every post. 😎
I feel the mood of proboards members has turned more positive since Monday along with the upward stock price. We still have the $1.60 warrant overhang through the end of the year. I hope those gets exercised so we can move up from there. If they don’t get exercised, I fear we fall back down again as we did with the failure to exercis the $2.30’s.
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Post by akemp3000 on Sept 11, 2019 8:46:17 GMT -5
SO's tone changed after visiting Danbury, meeting with Mike and learning what many of us already knew...that this company is on a much better trajectory than was being portrayed by many. Good to see Spencer now appears more open minded versus seemingly so argumentative with those previously considered pumpers. I too have returned to reading his articles now that he injects the good along with the challenges. He's a smart man and provides a valuable perspective but the good was too often missing and was the reason I had stopped following him. Some day soon he and others are going to be recommending MNKD as a strong buy  |
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Post by Omega on Sept 11, 2019 9:50:06 GMT -5
SO writing positive MNKD articles
HfM reporting MNKD to the SEC..
We're living in interesting times.
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Post by letitride on Sept 11, 2019 10:05:24 GMT -5
SO writing positive MNKD articles HfM reporting MNKD to the SEC.. We're living in interesting times. Twisted web we weave not everyone is who they appear to be, wonder whos going to get caught up in the squeeze. |
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Post by mytakeonit on Sept 11, 2019 13:12:50 GMT -5
And I ... who has been correct from the beginning. Still wait for my first $20 sent to mytakeonit.com
But, that's mytakeonit
(Disclaimer - A smart person might open that account and it won't be me.)
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Post by lakers on Sept 12, 2019 12:09:32 GMT -5
SO:
“the biggest drawback in getting institutes to buy in is the warrant overhang at $1.60 per share. Those warrants expire in late December. Once that issue is resolved, bigger doors open for institutional players.”
He agrees with me on this one. 12/27/19 is Fri. Institutional investors and/or the possible one have the following Mon and Tues to take equity stake in the same year.
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Post by longliner on Nov 4, 2019 23:42:37 GMT -5
SO on ST ..........as the worm turns.
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Post by sportsrancho on Nov 5, 2019 9:38:03 GMT -5
About the covenants: Spencer O
By the end of October, MannKind needed 12-month trailing net Afrezza revenue to be $24,000,000. At the end of November, that number needs to be $25,500,000. For 2019, the net Afrezza revenue must be at $27,000,000.
We know the Afrezza net revenue for Q1 and Q2. Those two quarters combined are $11,141,000. I estimate that Q3 Afrezza net revenue was $6,502,448. That would bring the total to $17,643,448 through 3 quarters. If we take the Afrezza net revenue of Q4 from last year ($5,734,000) to get 12 months of trailing revenue, we arrive at $23,377,000 in net Afrezza net revenue for the end of September vs. a requirement of $22,500,000. Things were okay ending Q3.
That being said, concerns arise beginning in October, and truly express themselves with November and December. The company needs to end October with trailing Afrezza net revenue at $24,000,000. That should be easy. The heart of the matter is with the weak Q1 here in 2019. Those numbers will come more and more into play as Q4 passes.
Essentially, this all would mean that Q4 of 2019 would need to deliver almost $9,400,000 in net revenue to reach the covenant requirement of $27,000,000 in Afrezza net revenue for the year. Getting $9,400,000 in Afrezza net revenue in just 13 weeks is no small task. It requires an average of $719,734 in Afrezza net revenue per week. Estimated Afrezza net revenues for the first 3 weeks of Q4 have been $600,000, $604,000, and $533,000, respectively. All are below the mark, and with major holidays waiting in the wings, it would appear pretty clear that US sales will not get the company to its covenants.
The bottom line is this. MannKind desperately needs net revenue from Brazil to make up the difference. With no launch from Brazil in October, it means that the partner in Brazil is not likely to order restocking Afrezza any time soon. Each week that passes without a launch means that the odds of hitting the sales covenant get longer and longer.
By my estimation, US sales of Afrezza will deliver about $25,000,000 in net revenue in 2019. That presents a covenant shortfall coming as early as November, and almost guarantees a shortfall in December. Did MannKind's Brazilian partner Biomm SA order enough Afrezza to make up the difference? That is the million dollar...or should I say...$2-million dollar question. In my opinion, Biomm SA, a cash strapped company in its own right, would be crazy to order massive amounts of product and absorb all of the risk.
What the street is now considering is that there is a covenant miss. What exactly does that mean for MannKind. First and foremost is that the company will see its interest on the debt increase by 2 points. Secondly, it will impact whether or not MidCap allows the additional $35,000,000 of tranche money to be drawn. This impacts the liquidity of MannKind. The possibility exists (though I do not feel MidCap would do this) that MidCap could call its loan. That could put MannKind in a real pickle, forcing the company to find a new loan with precious little shares to work with.
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Post by mytakeonit on Nov 5, 2019 12:21:23 GMT -5
Why is there no mention of the UTHR deal with revenues coming from Trep-T sales. Sounds like a biased report to gain followers to listen to ... next week's report.
But, that's mytakeonit
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Post by mnholdem on Nov 5, 2019 12:28:10 GMT -5
As I understand it, the MidCap covenants pertain solely to Afrezza sales revenue. UTCH sales of TreT or Tyvaso(TS) are a separate issue and are a couple years away regardless. Even the $12.5M milestone payment may not be applied against the covenant.
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Post by mytakeonit on Nov 5, 2019 12:33:22 GMT -5
Okay ... then the conference call will be even more exciting. I better make popcorn !!!
But, that's mytakeonit
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Nov 5, 2019 12:49:25 GMT -5
About the covenants: Spencer O By the end of October, MannKind needed 12-month trailing net Afrezza revenue to be $24,000,000. At the end of November, that number needs to be $25,500,000. For 2019, the net Afrezza revenue must be at $27,000,000. We know the Afrezza net revenue for Q1 and Q2. Those two quarters combined are $11,141,000. I estimate that Q3 Afrezza net revenue was $6,502,448. That would bring the total to $17,643,448 through 3 quarters. If we take the Afrezza net revenue of Q4 from last year ($5,734,000) to get 12 months of trailing revenue, we arrive at $23,377,000 in net Afrezza net revenue for the end of September vs. a requirement of $22,500,000. Things were okay ending Q3. That being said, concerns arise beginning in October, and truly express themselves with November and December. The company needs to end October with trailing Afrezza net revenue at $24,000,000. That should be easy. The heart of the matter is with the weak Q1 here in 2019. Those numbers will come more and more into play as Q4 passes. Essentially, this all would mean that Q4 of 2019 would need to deliver almost $9,400,000 in net revenue to reach the covenant requirement of $27,000,000 in Afrezza net revenue for the year. Getting $9,400,000 in Afrezza net revenue in just 13 weeks is no small task. It requires an average of $719,734 in Afrezza net revenue per week. Estimated Afrezza net revenues for the first 3 weeks of Q4 have been $600,000, $604,000, and $533,000, respectively. All are below the mark, and with major holidays waiting in the wings, it would appear pretty clear that US sales will not get the company to its covenants. The bottom line is this. MannKind desperately needs net revenue from Brazil to make up the difference. With no launch from Brazil in October, it means that the partner in Brazil is not likely to order restocking Afrezza any time soon. Each week that passes without a launch means that the odds of hitting the sales covenant get longer and longer. By my estimation, US sales of Afrezza will deliver about $25,000,000 in net revenue in 2019. That presents a covenant shortfall coming as early as November, and almost guarantees a shortfall in December. Did MannKind's Brazilian partner Biomm SA order enough Afrezza to make up the difference? That is the million dollar...or should I say...$2-million dollar question. In my opinion, Biomm SA, a cash strapped company in its own right, would be crazy to order massive amounts of product and absorb all of the risk. What the street is now considering is that there is a covenant miss. What exactly does that mean for MannKind. First and foremost is that the company will see its interest on the debt increase by 2 points. Secondly, it will impact whether or not MidCap allows the additional $35,000,000 of tranche money to be drawn. This impacts the liquidity of MannKind. The possibility exists (though I do not feel MidCap would do this) that MidCap could call its loan. That could put MannKind in a real pickle, forcing the company to find a new loan with precious little shares to work with. The proverbial "wall of worry", how many years have you been reading quarter after quarter the "threat" of missing covenants only to see things continue to get worked out...the broken record continues...fear, uncertainty, doubt ...bigger things to worry about, example now that Express Scripts is with Cigna will my insurance with Afrezza change in the coming year? Those are the bigger issues that continue to face this company. |
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Post by mnholdem on Nov 5, 2019 16:52:42 GMT -5
If I'm not mistaken, we should learn how much revenue was accounted for the Brazil shipment, but CEO Castagna may bury that detail under "revenue" and not provide details. It may depend upon whether he views it as confidential (for strategic purpose) or as a feather in his hat.
Unfortunately, since the Brazilian Government has yet to have release the pricing they've set for Afrezza, it will be virtually impossible to determine the number of SKUs shipped for Biomm's initial order.
I'm more interested in the revenue generated from Biomm. We'll just have to wait and see how forthcoming Mr. Castagna or Mr. Binder are in this regard.
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Post by longliner on Nov 5, 2019 22:51:08 GMT -5
SO seems quite concerned about his family and their welfare given his propensity to............................... I suppose we could offer to look after the poor waif's once he is incarcerated. Being a humanitarian and all. |
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