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Post by mnkdfann on Nov 14, 2019 21:10:31 GMT -5
Considering, as mentioned by more than one person, three of the current board members are beyond the mandatory employment retirement age - yet can remain on the board, forever (I guess). Really? I think I missed that discussion. My understanding is that mandatory retirement ages are for the most part unlawful in the U.S. From Wikipedia, "Mandatory retirement is generally unlawful in the United States, except in certain industries and occupations that are regulated by law, and are often part of the government (such as military service and federal police agencies, such as the Federal Bureau of Investigation)." So, if I am missing something, what is it? |
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Post by sellhighdrinklow on Nov 14, 2019 21:21:35 GMT -5
Given the most recent conference call and the data in the fillings, I don't see the evidentiary basis for the speculation regarding "default" in the dozen or so posts above. If anyone would care to make the case for it, please do. Since you asked [img class="smile" src="//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/grin.png" style="max-width:100%;" alt="  "] Lets look at December 31st because I think that is where it falls out of bed. The net revenue YTD for Afrezza is $17.5M based on the last 10Q, and the target for December 31st is $27M. That means this quarter needs to deliver net revenue of $9.5M. Last quarter the net revenue was $6.4M (neither Brazil nor the extra rebates will reoccur so they cancel each other out) which means we need about a $3.1M increase in net revenue in a quarter. I do not see that as doable. I think we get to about $8.2M based on last year's percentage increase which is $1.3M short. It may be possible to work the books to the point that that can be covered by deferring expenses, but that simply pushes the problem into January which is traditionally a bad month, but where the net revenue needs to increase by another $1M. From that point forwards net revenue needs to continue to increase by $1M every month until next December which is a $2M increase. I think you take your pick, but the net revenue gets missed at either end December or end January, most likely both. That's the math and the case as I see it. Any corrections welcome because it is not unknown for me to miss things.  "We"? Since when are you a stock holder in MNKD? |
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Post by agedhippie on Nov 14, 2019 22:55:50 GMT -5
Since you asked [img class="smile" src="//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/grin.png" style="max-width:100%;" alt=" "] Lets look at December 31st because I think that is where it falls out of bed. The net revenue YTD for Afrezza is $17.5M based on the last 10Q, and the target for December 31st is $27M. That means this quarter needs to deliver net revenue of $9.5M. Last quarter the net revenue was $6.4M (neither Brazil nor the extra rebates will reoccur so they cancel each other out) which means we need about a $3.1M increase in net revenue in a quarter. I do not see that as doable. I think we get to about $8.2M based on last year's percentage increase which is $1.3M short. It may be possible to work the books to the point that that can be covered by deferring expenses, but that simply pushes the problem into January which is traditionally a bad month, but where the net revenue needs to increase by another $1M. From that point forwards net revenue needs to continue to increase by $1M every month until next December which is a $2M increase. I think you take your pick, but the net revenue gets missed at either end December or end January, most likely both. That's the math and the case as I see it. Any corrections welcome because it is not unknown for me to miss things. "We"? Since when are you a stock holder in MNKD? Good point, that wasn't clear. In this case "we" is intended to draw a broad scope of interested parties (shareholders, options holders, supporters, users, ...), and not simply shareholders. Hopefully that clarifies things. |
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Post by Clement on Nov 15, 2019 10:14:52 GMT -5
Will Cipla pay for Afrezza to be used in the upcoming trials in India? .... or does Mannkind provide A at no charge for the trials in India?
When will Mannkind ship Afrezza to India for the trials? .... as soon as Dec or Jan?
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Post by stockwhisperer on Nov 15, 2019 10:19:34 GMT -5
Over the years, as many of you know & some have also done, I have contacted MNKD via email for the good & bad of things, a number of times. MC has always quickly replied, which was appreciated. Rose was a little slower at times. In any case, I was never able to email the Board direct. Rose would say she would get emails to them, if requested. There is now a way to contact the Board - which MC is a member of, shown on MNKD’s website. Maybe it was there before and I missed it. I just contacted MNKD via their website and asked if they also have an email address to contact the Board. Will let you know what they say. In the meantime, if interested, here is the MNKD link to reach the Board... investors.mannkindcorp.com/contact-us |
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Post by lakers on Nov 16, 2019 20:22:09 GMT -5
spencerosborne
11/14/19, 07:15 PM
@quentc @sophia_Petrillo @truckie the covenant issue could be as simple as the following:
Midcap - what do you think you need
Mnkd - $49m at a good rate
MidCap. - how about libor + 8.75
Mnkd - we will get killed if we announce that level of interest. Can you go lower
MidCap- those are the terms we can offer...tell you what...we will sign at 6.75% + libor, but you gotta hit these harder numbers. This allows you to announce more friendly terms, but hold you to a hard standard to keep that low rate.
Mnkd - ok.
In simple terms, I think MidCap knew from the start mnkd would likely miss.
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Post by goyocafe on Nov 16, 2019 21:07:02 GMT -5
We’ll thank MC later. 🤨
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Post by uvula on Nov 17, 2019 0:01:02 GMT -5
Will Cipla pay for Afrezza to be used in the upcoming trials in India? .... or does Mannkind provide A at no charge for the trials in India? When will Mannkind ship Afrezza to India for the trials? .... as soon as Dec or Jan? As i recall, India turned down cipla's request to sell A and is requiring a local clinical trial. Mnkd never said they would pay for it. Cipla never said they would pay for it either. The complete absence of comments from mnkd makes be think that India is a dead deal. I hope I'm wrong. |
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Post by buyitonsale on Nov 17, 2019 0:22:00 GMT -5
Cipla paid 2 million dollars to buy a dead deal.... hehe... it is so dead, that they are doing a trial on their dime, that's right, you know why, so they can sell the best mealtime insulin in India the best one. |
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Post by awesomo on Nov 17, 2019 0:59:09 GMT -5
Wow, a whole $2M, how will they possibly survive by investing such a large percentage of their $3.5B revenue...
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Post by buyitonsale on Nov 17, 2019 1:06:59 GMT -5
I am not concerned at all if Cipla or MNKD are going to survive.
Diabetics and their families should be concerned.
And eventually insurers.
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Post by awesomo on Nov 17, 2019 1:14:13 GMT -5
I don't think you got my sarcasm, a $2M investment is absolutely nothing for Cipla. Large companies do this all the time by spreading investments around and then seeing how things shake out. If they think going forward with Afrezza is profitable to them, they will, otherwise they will cut bait. They don't give a crap about whether or not it is the "best mealtime insulin".
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Post by buyitonsale on Nov 17, 2019 1:26:58 GMT -5
Great for them, but I don’t think you got that people are slowly and prematurely dying and that number is growing around the world.
No sarcasm or economics or shorting or bashing is going to change that, except when they can start controlling their sugars effectively.
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Post by cretin11 on Nov 17, 2019 10:01:50 GMT -5
I am not concerned at all if Cipla or MNKD are going to survive. Diabetics and their families should be concerned. And eventually insurers. Fair enough, but I am concerned whether MNKD will survive. |
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Post by pat on Nov 17, 2019 13:46:06 GMT -5
Just stop
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