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Post by babaoriley on Aug 11, 2014 23:49:53 GMT -5
I hope he can take a week or two off and just relax and unwind. The early morning, following weeks and weeks of hard work and pressure, the two conferences themselves, the "wonderful" stock price action during the day - he needs to rest and he'd darn well better do it!
I think he was as surprised as the rest of us with how the market reacted; I'm sure he thought this deal would be gratefully received.
Glad we owe him only about $50 million now.
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Post by bradleysbest on Aug 11, 2014 23:51:18 GMT -5
I believe he has a couple of surprises that will make us very happy.....
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Post by mdcenter61 on Aug 12, 2014 8:40:34 GMT -5
I believe he has a couple of surprises that will make us very happy.....
I hope you are right, but I don't think there is any ammo in the gun until we get actual sales results. Gotta have sales!!! My concern is that the other possibilities for the Technosphere/cricket applications are still too far off yet to be tangible, at least for the next six months or so.
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Post by mnkdlong on Aug 12, 2014 8:45:18 GMT -5
I believe he has a couple of surprises that will make us very happy.....
I hope you are right, but I don't think there is any ammo in the gun until we get actual sales results. Gotta have sales!!! My concern is that the other possibilities for the Technosphere/cricket applications are still too far off yet to be tangible, at least for the next six months or so.
Does anyone fall into the boat that Mr. Mann has bigger things to think about then the stock price? While we are obsessing over the downward action, I think it's likely that this is not even on the top 100 things Al is thinking about. |
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Post by bradleysbest on Aug 12, 2014 8:48:50 GMT -5
Sort of agree but I think he would love to reward the shareholders who have invested & believed in him & his vision! Maybe not at the top of his list but somewhere close to the top......
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Aug 12, 2014 10:45:15 GMT -5
I would think it would have to be somewhat of a disappointment for him that after achieving this milestone, there are a group of investors that believed in this early on, such as the "friends and family" let in at IPO, that are still significantly under water. Not to mention that a higher share price could have allowed raising more money by share offer to fund things like restarting the oncology pipeline.
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Post by bradleysbest on Aug 12, 2014 12:15:59 GMT -5
Agree cruiser.....
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Post by rak5555 on Aug 12, 2014 14:25:20 GMT -5
My guess is that Al is quite relieved. They were running very low on money and the partner search had been going on for literally years. As weak of a deal that this is, it is the best deal that was available. Anything less would have been an even bigger disaster. This way, his baby at least has the financing it needs to prove him right or wrong in the market.
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Post by babaoriley on Aug 12, 2014 18:58:38 GMT -5
I'm sure Al was happy to make the deal, rak, I was actually talking more in terms of the length and intensity of the day itself, and I am very sure it did not help him to see the stock sell off from pre-market levels. Tough for us youngins, and that's just the stock part. Monday was a marathon for this 89 year old marvel!
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Post by jpg on Aug 12, 2014 21:15:56 GMT -5
My guess is that Al is quite relieved. They were running very low on money and the partner search had been going on for literally years. As weak of a deal that this is, it is the best deal that was available. Anything less would have been an even bigger disaster. This way, his baby at least has the financing it needs to prove him right or wrong in the market. Hi Rak, I am curious to what you would have comsidered a good deal? I ask because I don't understand why you think this was a 'weak deal'? To me this is near as good as it gets for 'baby biotechs'. Maybe many had non realistic expectations of profit sharing/ royalties etc? Show me a biotech company that got a better deal then Mannkind just got. A global partner like Sanofi who knows and sells the best basal insulin world wide is a lot better then higher royalties and/or share of the pie with a second rate BP like so many 'has been' BPs out there. Sanofi has committed big time to 'owning the diabetic space' and Novo Nordisk should be very nervous... The market reaction is not, in my opinion, to a bad deal but more likely an attack because the shorts see no risk of a buyout anymore. If looking only at the short term I would have liked a buyout like everyone else but I am certain our chances of significant upside are much much improved with the deal Mannkind made with Sanofi. JPG |
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Post by Chris-C on Aug 12, 2014 21:51:56 GMT -5
Hi JPG,
I agree. The deal was about as good as it could be. I was surprised that George Rho was disappointed, but perhaps some people are still digesting it fully. To be honest, many would have preferred a sale because we are weary of the games being played with a good company and a good man who deserves better. But many people are concerned only with filling their rice bowl today. I cannot conceive of a buy out that a large pharma would be willing to pay that would provide anything near fair value for this company, when considering its delivery platform and the potential of Afrezza and the number of shares outstanding. Too much dilution was required following CRLs by a broken FDA. Regardless, longer term, this deal will provide a much better return than a sale would have, but of course now the ROI for long investors will be delayed.
I tend to disagree with those assuming that a Mannkind investment is dead money until sales begin. Sanofi is in charge of filing applications for regulatory approval in Europe and Japan, and they will do this efficiently because it is in their interest to do so. Although the spilled beans during the earnings conference call did not reveal details, that exchange itself suggests that the two companies have some things that remain up their sleeves for the moment. Al Mann is about as savvy as they come. I hope I am thinking as well when I am 89.
I also think the tired short mantra that the label will restrict sales is misinformed. In fact, most knowledgable investors saw the label as entirely consistent with the AdCom and benign at best when compared to other drugs. I tend to think that sales will surprise with a large sales force and an established and large basal insulin market. Investors should remember that no basal insulin outsells Lantus. Sanofi is the market leader in this space.
Good luck to all longs who are in this for the long term. I think you will be rewarded for your patience.
Chris-C
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