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Post by datadaddy on Aug 12, 2014 8:49:20 GMT -5
newbie to this board...
How can a stock react like this 3 times to good news ?
(Adcom, Approval, now Partnership)
I'm familiar "with sell the news" and "it's already baked in" but this is ridiculous
Obviously before news there has to be some risk of the unknown left and therefore the PPS should be somewhere in the middle to reflect that.
So why on repeated good news are we getting hammered like this ?
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Post by bradleysbest on Aug 12, 2014 8:50:31 GMT -5
That is the million (billion) dollar question?
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Post by cannon5974 on Aug 12, 2014 9:10:25 GMT -5
The news was terrible. MNKD got 150M in upfront and only 35% of Afrezza after spending 10 years and $2B to get it approved. It is a joke.
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Post by novafett on Aug 12, 2014 9:23:29 GMT -5
Yea i'm watching the stock tank right now. TANK after yesterdays deal and all i can say is, "What the hell?"
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Post by bradleysbest on Aug 12, 2014 9:30:59 GMT -5
Once the ball gets rolling with Sanofi (launch & sales) I fully expect a complete buyout of MNKD & all technologies (technosphere) to Sanofi. Once Al is completely satisfied with the direction of MNKD he will sell everything & we will be HAPPY! My .02.........
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Post by goodby1 on Aug 12, 2014 9:57:40 GMT -5
What I don't get is: where are all the institutional investors? I was expecting, post-approval, that MNKD would stabilize and that the ability to swing this stock by the bears would be decreased by an influx of big boys coming in and making everything a less DELTA-Y.
Nevertheless, I have bought another 1000 shares today at the low. Call me a believer... but I just made a little bit of profit and hope that this swings high just as easily as it swings low.
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Post by goodby1 on Aug 12, 2014 9:59:33 GMT -5
Just checked... very good. Got in at 7.20 or so.. PPS now at 7.70. Glad I was right (so far) on the fact that this is just another raid. WHEN WILL THEY STOP?! It's bad on my nerves!
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Post by garrett on Aug 12, 2014 11:21:23 GMT -5
Goodby1 - Unfortunately, with no binary event in the near term many will think Mannkind is "dead money" until 2015 first quarter earnings. I expect the stock to drift down to some support level until then. If you are holding long term (3 to 5 years) then this should not bother you.
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Post by cybergym66 on Aug 12, 2014 12:00:41 GMT -5
Goodby1 - Unfortunately, with no binary event in the near term many will think Mannkind is "dead money" until 2015 first quarter earnings. I expect the stock to drift down to some support level until then. If you are holding long term (3 to 5 years) then this should not bother you. I painfully agree with you. Any hope for a recovery in the stock price could very well depend on MNKD announcing positive info about Technosphere development/sales. A better PR effort to give the market clearer guidance on marketing, the start of sales, sale projection or even T1/T2 adoption would certainly be helpful. My impression is MNKD is a great Biotech, but bad PR company. NO word from them after FDA approval is a clear example of that. You can give me reasons(excuses) for that. They need tips from TSLA! |
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Post by mnholdem on Aug 12, 2014 12:09:58 GMT -5
What I don't get is: where are all the institutional investors? I was expecting, post-approval, that MNKD would stabilize and that the ability to swing this stock by the bears would be decreased by an influx of big boys coming in and making everything a less DELTA-Y. Does anyone here think it's possible that institutional investors are causing manipulation to buy in at a better entry point? My investment in MNKD is my first venture into biotechs and my first encounter with a stock that has such a high short interest and which is highly manipulated.
I'm wondering if some big guns are lining things up:
- Bear raid to facilitate lower entry point
- Large scale institutional buys, which precede...
- Release of numerous investment analysts' 1-Yr Stock Targets after analyzing Sanofi announcement & 10-Q
Currently E-Trade lists investment analyst targets ranging $4-$16 with 3 Buys, 4 Holds & 1 Underperform
I believe the $4 target is Piper Jaffray, established on their opinion that Mannkind would not be able to land a giant global pharmaceutical for Afrezza. If they upgrade, even to $8, the consensus price target would move up.
Mannkind/Sanofi have announced a planned launch in Q1 2015, which falls within analyst's 1-Yr Price targets. I'm thinking a few analysts will raise those targets, even though Pierre won't disclose their marketing plan or projected sales projections at this time, in order to keep competing diabetes BP's in the dark.
So I'd appreciate the opinion of biotech-savvy investors here:
- Are any institutional investment firms causing this manipulation?
- Should we expect analyst target upgrades any time soon?
- Would a consensus stock price upgrade of $12-$16 push pps above $10 with this much short interest?
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Post by garrett on Aug 12, 2014 12:29:21 GMT -5
Are any institutional investment firms causing this manipulation? Of course there is - just look at today's volume between open and 9:15 CST. These are not retail investors
Should we expect analyst target upgrades any time soon? We just got one from Griffin on -8/11/14 BUY with a 12 month price target to $16.25. But that apparently did not help
Would a consensus stock price upgrade of $12-$16 push pps above $10 with this much short interest? In the near term, I don't think so.
[Garrett, I cleaned up your posts.
-BD] |
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Post by cybergym66 on Aug 12, 2014 12:53:45 GMT -5
There has to be a point where the Short Interest hits a max (I surmise). I'm curious for guesses what that might be. I would also think that a SI of 40%+ is rather dangerous for shorts in that surprising news could cause a SS. I'm not saying it will happen or that we're over 40% SI, but after the last two days it feels like the percentage actually went up, not down.
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